Yankees vs Diamondbacks Predictions Today | MLB Odds, Pick (Wednesday, April 3)

Here's everything you need to know about Yankees vs Diamondbacks on Wednesday, April 3 — including odds and a prediction.

Yankees vs Diamondbacks odds have this game as a pick 'em while the over/under is set at 8.5. New York will hand the ball to left-hander Carlos Rodon, and I am looking to fade him this Wednesday.

Let's dive into why I am fading Rodon as I make a Yankees vs Diamondbacks prediction.

Rodon is coming off a terrible 2023 campaign, and I do not think he will make much of a turnaround in 2024. Last season, he posted a 3-8 record with a fade-worthy 6.85 ERA and 1.45 WHIP through 14 starts.

His underlying metrics were just as poor, ranking in the 35th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, Average Exit Velocity, BB%, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%. I want to sell high on Rodon after he just allowed one run in his first start of 2024, a result that was more fortunate than it should have been.

He posted a troubling 1.85 WHIP through those 4.1 innings pitched, and opposing hitters produced a .306 xBA, .379 xwOBA and .452 xSLG. There are also some troubling trends with Rodon from that outing, given that his velocity is down compared to 2023.

On the other hand, Arizona has gotten off to a tremendous start to this season at the plate. Entering this matchup, it ranks in the top five of the league in runs scored per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.

Obviously, we are working with a small sample size here, but this is a team that is coming off a World Series appearance in 2023, partly due to its balanced lineup. Last year, it ranked in the top half of the league in BA and OBP.

This success is likely to continue against Rodon, someone who has struggled mightily against the Diamondbacks. Through five career starts against them, the left-hander is 0-3 with a 5.53 ERA.

Arizona recorded five or more runs in four of those five outings.

For this contest specifically, I like the DBacks to score over 4.5 runs, which can be found at +122 via FanDuel. I also wouldn't be shocked if Arizona recorded five runs against Rodon himself.

The reason this line is so low is that New York boasts one of the better bullpens in baseball. With that said, it is due for regression as its bullpen ranks first in ERA this season but 23rd in xFIP.

Either way, I could see the DBacks hanging five on Rodon before we even get to this strong bullpen. Subsequently, I believe there is also value in the three-way market for the first-five innings result on Arizona at +120.

Pick: Diamondbacks Over 4.5 Runs (+122 at FanDuel | Play to +115)