MLB Playoff Picks, Odds for Game 3 of ALDS Yankees vs Guardians
Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Triston McKenzie (24) delivers a pitch to the plate during the seventh inning of the Major League Baseball game between the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians on April 5, 2021, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH.
- The Yankees and Guardians meet on Saturday evening in Game 3 of the ALDS in Cleveland.
- New York is short favorites with Luis Severino on the mound, while Cleveland hopes for the upset behind Triston McKenzie.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Yankees vs. Guardians Game 3 Odds
|Time||7:37 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
As the ALDS shifts to Cleveland for Games 3 and 4, it feels as though all the momentum is in the Guardians' favor after they stole a split at Yankee Stadium.
New York Yankees: Can Severino Dominate?
Saturday will be a very tough spot for Luis Severino, who will face a world of pressure playing in front of what should be a raucous crowd at Progressive Field.
If Severino can shake off some early nerves and settle into this contest, it could mean a quality outing, considering how his stuff has looked since returning from injury.
Severino averaged 97.8 mph with his four-seamer in his last start against Texas and dealt seven innings of no-hit ball.
Since returning from injury, Severino has pitched to a 1.69 ERA over 16 innings. He's given up just five hits and has posted a 0.63 WHIP. His hard-hit rate was also just 28.5% over his past three outings, a vast improvement from his season-long mark.
Cleveland's elite quality pitching got the better of New York's lineup in Game 2 as Shane Bieber led a 15-strikeout performance from Guardians' staff.
With Aaron Judge scuffling, the Yankees' lineup has disappointed and life won't get any easier in a matchup with Triston McKenzie at Progressive Field.
Cleveland Guardians: Is Another Gem Coming from McKenzie?
McKenzie has been in the best form of his life of late. The 25-year-old was dominant in his first playoff outing against Tampa Bay, allowing just two hits and striking out eight over six innings.
His 3.54 xERA suggests regression is coming. However, opposing batters have seen their xWOBA plummet over the past 250 plate appearances against McKenzie.
Right-handed hitters have a swing-rate of 55% against McKenzie this season, which bodes well for the Guardians considering the Yankees have several right handers and McKenzie has strong whiff and chase rates.
Since the start of 2020, right-handed hitters have hit just .192 against McKenzie, the fifth-best mark in the league among starters who have thrown over 190 innings.
Cleveland's offense had its best day of the postseason Friday — four runs on nine hits over 10 innings — but has been far from potent overall and faces a tough matchup Saturday.
Neither of these offenses have looked particularly potent at any point in this series. If you want to look at a larger sample, Cleveland has made it work without much offensive success for the entirety of the postseason.
Severino has shown enough over his past couple of outings that it's very reasonable to think he can keep this Guardians lineup at bay.
McKenzie has also been in strong form of late and meets a Yankees' lineup that is looking less potent at the plate, particularly with Judge now scuffling.
The top bullpen arms from each side are somewhat taxed, so I think the perfect way to isolate the total in this spot is to look at the 7-inning line.
Under 5.5 runs through seven innings is currently listed at -138 on FanDuel, and I like a play on that down to -145.
Pick: 7 Innings Total Under 5.5 -138 (Play to -145)