Yankees vs. Mariners Odds, Preview, Prediction: Jameson Taillon Starts Opposite Justus Sheffield (Tuesday, July 6)

Based on how each team is constructed, it would be difficult to imagine the Seattle Mariners with a better record than the New York Yankees.

The two clubs have dealt with inconsistencies and injuries throughout the season, but one team has overcome some adversity, while the other is fighting to stay relevant in their division.

Should the lines reflect their records, or is betting the Yankees because of the name and talent the way to go?

New York Yankees

The Yankees' offense has been perfectly vanilla against southpaws on the road this season. The only stat that falls out of the 11-20 range for season totals is strikeout rate, so it's good that they are not bad in one category.

A lot more can be deciphered on batted balls. The offense has one of the better medium hit percentages against left-handed pitching away from Yankee Stadium. We like solid contact, but the Yankees also have one of the worst Hard Hit percentages in the same situation. That has led to top 10 HR/FB and GB/FB ratios.

New York's right-handed hitters must take advantage of a pitcher having issues against righties. More on that later.

Jameson Taillon has been a positive regression candidate since May and while he has pitched well at times, he only has seven starts (of 15) with an ERA below 5.00. He is another pitcher that has been victimized by career-highs in Barrel and Hard Hit percentage. Taillon has also been a tire fire away from the Bronx.

In 17 road innings pitched, Taillon has an 11.12 ERA and .385/.425/.628 slash line against. It's a small sample size that is too eye-popping to ignore, no matter the opponent.

Seattle Mariners

Justus Sheffield has not thrown 200 innings in the majors, but it feels like the 25-year old is who he is. His '20 appears to be an aberration as his numbers this year fall more in line with his '19 work.

Sheffield is also striking out two fewer batters per nine innings since 2019 and lives dangerously with balls in play; he has a career .338 BABIP (.341 in 2021) and has career-highs in Barrel percentage and Hard Hit percentage on balls in play.

Sheffield's home ERA is 5.11, and he more than doubled his season home run total from five to 13 in June.

Seattle's offense, meanwhile, has been an issue, kindly put. The 91 wRC+ against righties at home is 25th in baseball, and they are last in HR/FB ratio. Their 19.0 soft hit percentage is 0.1% behind the Pirates for worst so count that as well. The Mariners offense also has the lowest GB/FB at home, a bad combination with poor contact.

The Mariners have the second-lowest BABIP, but even positive regression there would improve their MLB-worst batting average and OBP.

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Yankees-Mariners Pick

Give credit where credit is due: the Seattle Mariners are an above-.500 team that has thrived in one-run games. Their 38-47 expected win-loss record tells that story, especially with inconsistent offense and injuries to some of their best players. Their regression will come, but it may not happen until they decide to be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.

The Yankees are barely over .500 and should be below it according to expected W/L. Even with injuries to Opening Day players, the level of talent lost during the season does not preclude them from scrutiny. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and D.J. LeMahieu have disappeared for stretches (or months), and the starting rotation was not that good to begin with. New York just lost two of three to a Mets team that has been hit harder than it has by injuries.

Here, the Yankees are getting too much credit for being the Yankees. As of Monday night, the best number on the Mariners could be found at PointsBet.

Pick: Mariners +135