After spending last week in Abu Dhabi, the UFC has another early card this weekend, this time from Serbia. The 14-fight card goes down at 10 AM ET from the Belgrade Arena, headlined by (for some reason) Uros Medic and Daniel Rodriguez.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Serbia odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Serbia Predictions & Luck Ratings
Uros Medic (-360) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+285)
The UFC had to work pretty hard to come up with a main event featuring a Serbian fighter, given the relative lack of them on the roster. The best they could come up with, evidently, was Uros Medic taking on Daniel Rodriguez in a battle of unranked welterweights.
That's no shade on Medic, who is 5-2 since moving up to 170lbs, with all five of those wins via knockout, and four of them in the first round. With that said, the 33-year-old isn't exactly a contender by any typical definition, nor does matching him up with 39-year-old Daniel Rodriguez get him any closer to that status.
Rodriguez is coming in with a three-fight winning streak, though hasn't fought in more than a year due to a stint in Mexican jail where he was apparently bailed out by his most recent opponent, Kevin Holland. It sounds like I'm setting up an elaborate joke here, but there's no punchline — that's where Rodriguez has spent the better part of the last year.
That's obviously a less-than-ideal situation before coming into a fight, but the more relevant factor is he's a nearly 40-year-old brawler taking on a younger, powerful opponent in his home country. There's probably some value on Rodriguez if this fight extends, given that Medic has never seen a UFC decision and we're scheduled for five rounds, but that's a discussion for later in the week. As it stands, the moneyline is about right.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Nina Milosevic (-375) vs. Hailey Cowan (+295)
My favorite fighter to fade, Hailey Cowan, is at least for now booked to fight at UFC Serbia. I've been betting against Cowan at every available opportunity since her split decision win on the Contender Series in 2023, but unfortunately she's had more cancelled fights than appearances. (Imagine the line between Cowan and Ailin Perez now? +120 was a steal).
When she has made it to the cage, betting against her has worked out every time, with Cowan going 0-3 in the promotion despite never being more than a +175 underdog. Now her line is finally in the realm of where it should be at +295, as she takes on star prospect Nina Milosevic.
The UFC signed Milosevic directly, with no DWCS or Ultimae Fighter bout, and she's 8-0 since dropping her pro debut by split decision. She's been on the radar as one of the sport's best female prospects for some time now, and they aren't putting the Serbian favorite against Cowan with the expectation of a close bout.
Milosevic's line briefly dipped to -365 before falling back down on DraftKings, and is -400 at most other books at the time of writing. I'd gladly take anything inside -400 on Milosevic as it will almost certainly generate some CLV if nothing else. It's not the most exciting pick due to the odds, but there's nothing wrong with a roughly 25% ROI over the course of a week.
Verdict: Milosevic Undervalued
Milos Janicic (-142) vs. Noah Gugnon (+120)
This is the rare "Luck Ratings" selection that's not at all based on in-cage performance, but a weird blip in the betting markets.
I'm not familiar with either Janicic or Gugnon, both of whom are making their UFC debut this weekend. Both seem like solid prospects with extended winning streaks against solid regional competition, though I'd rate Gugnon's strength of schedule a bit higher overall, since he fights for top French promotion Ares FC while Janicic largely fought for lesser organizations — including Mike Perry's Dirty Boxing.
The vast majority of books have this fight as roughly a pick 'em, with a slight lean towards Gugnon as the favorite. For example, he's -115 at BetMGM, and +100 at FanDuel, with some sharper books even more heavily tilted to Gugnon. However, DraftKings has him at +120. Based on the line movement at earlier-posting books, DraftKings is behind the curve, not ahead of it, so I'm grabbing some exposure at this price now, with a possible arbitrage opportunity later in the week.
Verdict: Gugnon Undervalued at DraftKings
