Read our UFC Abu Dhabi best bets for this live event on Saturday from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE. We have a special 9:00 a.m. ET start time for the card, headlined by a light heavyweight bout between former champion Magomed Ankalaev and Bogdan Guskov.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Abu Dhabi Moneyline Projections
UFC Abu Dhabi Prop Projections
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Nurullo Aliev vs. Mike Davis
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 a.m. ET
At his best, Mike Davis has flashed the potential of a top-10 UFC lightweight. Unfortunately, he's been unwilling or unable to stay active enough to truly live up to it, fighting about once a year since making his UFC debut in 2019. This weekend he takes on Nurullo Aliev, who is 3-0 in the promotion since his 2023 debut.
Aliev trains out of Kaizen Martial Arts in Falls Creek, Virginia. That school was founded originally as a traditional martial arts school by Karate champion Nima Mazhari, with that lineage evident in the styles of their fighters. They tend to be patient, defensively oriented strikers who prefer to outpoint their opponents at range rather than engage in high-volatility firefights. Aliev is a good example of that, with nine of his 11 professional wins coming via decision. That includes all three of his UFC victories, one of which was a majority decision.
Conversely, Davis is a far more aggressive fighter, with 10 finishes in 12 pro wins, including three in five UFC victories. They've primarily come on the ground, with the former high school wrestler averaging 2.4 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. He's aggressive with both strikes and submission attempts on the ground, unlike Aliev, who primarily grapples for control.
While it's always hard to handicap Davis given his extended time off between fights, this sets up as a matchup where Aliev needs to "fight clean" for 15 minutes, and a big moment or two from Davis could swing the fight. That could come by way of a stoppage or by swaying the judges in an otherwise close round — though I worry about some local favoritism for "The Tajik Eagle" in his home region.
Davis has been finished just once as a pro, a submission loss to Gilbert Burns in his UFC debut, so I don't see Aliev getting his first UFC stoppage here. That means Davis' "finish only" moneyline bet — which is refunded in the case of a decision for either fighter — at -110 is a great pick.
On top of that, I'm also betting Davis' +3.5 point spread at -155. He could cash this ticket with one big exchange, as all he would need to do is win one round and make it the full 15 minutes to cover that spread, while an outright win also gets it done.
The likeliest outcome here is a push for the former bet, so I feel comfortable going a bit bigger in terms of total exposure to this fight, with a stoppage win for Davis obviously cashing both tickets.
Pick: Mike Davis Finish Only Moneyline -110 | Davis +3.5 Points Spread -155
Axel Sola vs. Ismael Bonfim
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:45 a.m. ET
The Bonfim brothers had a lot of hype when they entered the promotion off of dual Contender Series wins on the same card in September 2022, but it's become clear that one is much more athletic than the other.
Dynamic welterweight Gabriel Bonfim recently proved the quality of his stamina with a 25-minute decision over former champion Belal Muhammad; however, his younger, smaller brother, Ismael, has repeatedly struggled with cardio in extended fights.
Ismael's lone UFC wins have come against Terrance McKinney — a fighter who has become notorious for seemingly quitting when he can't get a quick finish (including his loss at UFC 329 against King Green) — and a 42-year-old Vince Pichel. He is well-rounded, with good power and crafty jiu-jitsu, and starts hot against all of his opponents, but the moment Bonfim begins to face adversity, he starts to wilt.
Axel Sola is hittable and may get clipped early, but he's reliable in pressing forward and pushing a pace. He's the much bigger man (4" taller, 3" reach advantage) with the better hardware (power, durability, physicality, and cardio), and is far more willing than Bonfim to fight through adversity.
I projected Sola as a -206 favorite (67% implied) and would take his moneyline small pre-fight up to -200; however, you are likely to get a better number during or after Round 1, as Bonfim's success is always front-loaded.
Alternatively, or in addition, take Sola by TKO/KO (projected +139, listed +180) or inside the distance (projected +118, listed +135) while waiting to time a live entry on the favorite at a better number than his pre-fight price tag.
Pick: Alex Sola -178 (Polymarket) | Axel Sola wins by TKO/KO +180 (BetRivers) or Inside the Distance +135 (BetRivers) | Axel Sola Live During or After Round 1
