Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola Odds
| Bonfim Odds | +160 |
| Sola Odds | -192 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+105/-135) |
| Location | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates |
| Bout Time | 12:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Abu Dhabi odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Abu Dhabi with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola prediction for UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday, July 25, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
One of the highlights of the UFC Abu Dhabi prelims is a welterweight tilt between Ismael Bonfim and Axel Sola. Sola is coming off a losing effort in one of the best fights of the year against Mason Jones, and will be looking for an opportunity to get back in the win column after making himself $100,000 richer with his fight of the night loss from March.
Meanwhile, Bonfim might be fighting for his UFC job. The older/smaller brother of standout welterweight Gabriel Bonfim, Ismael is 1-3 with three stoppage losses over his last four. He also missed weight by five pounds in his last loss, which certainly didn't earn him any favors with the UFC after having a previous bout cancelled on the scales. However, he's still dangerous and should serve as a good test for the true potential of Sola.
Tale of the Tape
| Bonfim | Sola | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-6 | 11-1-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:26 | 13:31 |
| Height | 5'8" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 12/28/1995 | 9/17/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.51 | 4.07 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.71 | 5.29 |
| SS Defense | 65% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.06 | 2.22 |
| TD Acc | 33% | 36% |
| TD Def | 76% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0 |
Axel Sola came into the UFC as a relatively fully-formed product, having just competed in four straight title fights for Ares FC, France's premier MMA promotion. Once landing in the UFC, his first two fights came against former Cage Warriors — The UK's premier MMA organization — champions. He went 1-1 across those bouts, leaving us no closer to settling the England vs. France MMA debate but giving us a good look at his skill set.
Despite training out of a gym called "Boxing Squad" with UFC flyweight Manon Fiorot, Sola is arguably at his best when grappling. He spent some time in Dagestan training before his last fight in order to shore up said grappling, and he's landed four takedowns across his two UFC fights.
He lists his style as Karate, which works well when fighting at range, especially as a long southpaw who gives awkward looks to opponents not used to the style. His grappling is a crucial tool to punish opponents from too quickly closing that range and forcing him to fight in close. He did that well against Mason Jones, especially early, taking the Brit down twice in the first round following Jones initiating clinches.
The Frenchman also had plenty of success on the feet in the early going against Jones, unofficially dropping him with a spinning elbow and finding a home for his straight left punches. While watching the later parts of that fight, I was struck by the feeling that this was the first time Sola ever faced an opponent who was able to withstand all of that offense and keep coming forward. Jones took the fight over in the second and third rounds, closing the distance effectively and sucking Sola into a brawl rather than a clean kickboxing match.
From a career development standpoint, that might be the best possible loss for Sola to suffer. The ability to keep after an opponent who won't go away is crucial at higher levels of competition — as is managing one's gas tank to have something in reserve for the later rounds.
The good news for Sola here is that Ismael Bonfim has been finished inside of two rounds in all three of his UFC losses, and his only UFC/DWCS finish came against Terrance McKinney — who notoriously has exactly one round of fight in him.
In a weird scheduling quirk, this will be the fourth southpaw Bonfim has faced in his six UFC fights — with that figure coming from Dan Tom's always-helpful southpaw report. One of those previous matchups was the McKinney fight, which is a fairly unique situation, while another was the loss to Benoit Saint Denis, in which Saint Denis dominated almost the entirety of the fight with grappling.
The most applicable matchup for the one against Sola was probably Bonfim vs. Nazim Sadykhov, from February of 2025. The 5'8" Bonfim had a rare reach advantage in that fight, and was able to outstrike Sadykhov 26-13 largely by maintaining distance, winning the lead foot battle, and throwing straight shots at Sadykhov.
However, he's on the opposite end of the reach differential against Sola, so he'll need to use his explosiveness to get in, and importantly out, of striking range against the Frenchman. Lingering to long on the inside will likely lead to Sola utilizing his grappling the way his countryman Saint Denis did in their matchup.
The other bad news for Bonfim is that he was caught by a rear leg question mark kick from Sadykhov, who followed up with body shots and more head kicks en route to a first-round doctor stoppage victory due to an eye injury to Bonfim from the head kick. The stoppage was a bit questionable, but it seemed like Bonfim claimed to be unable to see out of the eye.
Sola also utilizes a ton of kicks from his rear left side, though, so coupled with his reach edge will likely be able to use that weapon effectively against Bonfim. The Brazilian doesn't present enough of a grappling threat to compel Sola to keep his feet planted, so he should be able to throw with impunity here.
Bonfim vs. Sola Pick, Prediction
The market has shifted a bit towards Sola throughout the week, in a move I agree with. Sola has never been finished as a pro, and fought through a ton of adversity against Jones to make it to the final bell.
While it would be unfair to label the elder Bonfim a quitter, his recent results (and explosive early style) suggest he doesn't have a lot of options if he's unable to blitz through his opponents early. While he has some decision wins, both came against clearly overmatched opponents he was able to dominate early.
I expect Sola to pick up a late-ish finish after a sweaty first round, which makes him a very strong live betting candidate if you find yourself watching fights on a Saturday morning. From a prefight standpoint, Sola and Over 4.5 minutes — effectively the fight to start Round 2 — is +100 via DraftKings SGP. With Sola's finish odds just 20 cents better at +120, I'm happy to pay 20 cents in order to trade a first-round stoppage for a decision in terms of results that cash the bet.
Billy's Pick: Sola and Over 4.5 Minutes SGP +100 (DraftKings) | Sola live
