Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday, July 25

Check out my Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov prediction for Saturday, July 25, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov Odds

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE for a 13-fight card, featuring an important main event in the Light Heavyweight division between former champion Magomed Ankalaev and No. 9-ranked contender Bogdan Guskov.

Ankalaev, who owns a 12-2-1 promotional record, looks to bounce back from a knockout loss in his title fight rematch against Alex Pereira at UFC 320 last October. Ankalaev has long been considered the most well-rounded light heavyweight on the roster, but his limited aggression toward finishing fights hasn't won him favor with UFC fans or management.

Ankalaev was initially supposed to face former title challenger Khalil Rountree Jr. on Saturday, but Rountree withdrew due to injury. Ankalaev will instead face rising contender Bogdan Guskov on short notice.

Guskov owns a 4-1-1 promotional record and enters off a majority draw against former champion Jan Blachowicz at UFC 323 last December. Guskov had been training for a rematch with Blachowicz in May, but Jan pulled out with a knee injury. They were rescheduled to fight next week, but Guskov was moved up to his first career five-round fight.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Abu Dhabi Main Event on Saturday afternoon and use those factors to bet on these light heavyweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 3:45 p.m. ET (12:45 p.m. PT) on Saturday.

Here's my Ankalaev vs. Guskov pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

The fighters are of similar size and age, but Ankalaev enters his sixth career main event or five-round fight on Saturday. At the same time, Guskov may see championship rounds for the first time, on short notice, after training for a three-round rematch with Blachowicz.

Guskov has finished each of his 18 career wins (15 KO, 3 submission) and is 0-1-1 for his career on the scorecards. Moreover, he has finished 17 of 18 wins inside the first two rounds.

As a result, it's difficult to trust his gas tank in a contest with 10 additional minutes on the clock, and Ankalaev has shown that he can bank minutes and rounds in an extended contest, even when he isn't being particularly proactive (2-0-1 in main event decisions).

By the numbers, Ankalaev is both the more efficient striker (+0.5 to -0.9 differential per minute at distance) and the far superior grappler (88% to 39% control rate).

In fact, Guskov's defensive grappling can be exposed when his opponents proactively wrestle (57% takedown defense). While Ankalaev isn't always reliable to shoot (1.7 attempts per five minutes at distance) or efficient at getting his opponents to the ground (22% accuracy), he should have a significant — if not potentially fight-ending advantage if this contest hits the mat.

Guskov is both the more powerful and the more aggressive striker, attempting roughly 8.3 strikes per minute to Ankalaev's 7.0. Still, he's much more careless defensively (56% to 44% striking defense) as he closes distance on his opponents.

Ankalaev, who is more talented than almost all of his opposition, does have a bad tendency to fight to the level of his competition, and to play with his food rather than pursuing a finish, even in relative mismatches. And coming off of a quick knockout loss, there are certainly increased concerns surrounding his durability.

Still, Guskov is relatively untested in three-round fights, let alone championship rounds, which gives Ankalaev far more ways to win, provided he survives the early onslaught. Guskov earned a 10-8 over Blachowicz with a dominant second round, but gassed out and got knocked down in the final frame, leading to the draw.

The five-round format heavily favors Ankalaev; I'd expect him to separate over the final 10 to 15 minutes of the fight, and would search for a live bet on the former champion after ten minutes.

Ankalaev vs. Guskov Prediction, Picks

I projected Magomed Ankalaev as an 82.6% favorite (-474 implied odds) in this fight, and I don't show an edge on either side of the moneyline.

I do expect the fight to go longer more often than the odds suggest, setting the reach-a-decision prop at +258  (listed +315). However, with Guskov on short notice and testing five rounds for the first time, I might prefer Over 1.5 Rounds (-170), Fight Starts Round 3 (-115), or Over 2.5 (+125), instead of betting on all 25 minutes to elapse.

Alternatively, or in addition, target a same-game parlay, with Ankalaev and Fight Starts Round 2 (-140) or Ankalaev and Over 1.5 Rounds (-110), given the likely cardio dynamic of the fight – Guskov early or Ankalaev late.

For the same reason, I'd likely pass on Ankalaev to win by decision (projected +304, listed +440) apart from longshot round robin inclusion.

Lastly, look to target Ankalaev live anytime after Round 1, with the best entry point potentially coming after Round 2.

Alternatively, if you prefer the Guskov side, target his KO/TKO prop (projected +635, listed +750) or his odds to win in Round 1 (+1900) or Round 2 (+2500).

Sean Zerillo's UFC Abu Dhabi Best Bets

• SGP: Magomed Ankalaev & Fight Starts Round 2 (-140 at Caesars)
• Magomed Ankalaev Live Anytime after Round 1

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