Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos Odds
| Padilla Odds | -162 |
| Mederos Odds | +136 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-260/+195) |
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida |
| Bout Time | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 327 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 327 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos prediction for UFC 327 on Saturday, April 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Padilla vs. Mederos pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Padilla | Mederos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-6 | 11-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:34 | 12:17 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 09/14/1995 | 11/30/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.78 | 4.84 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 56% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.87 | 2.99 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.18 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 30% | 0% |
| TD Def | 75% | 83% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.0 |
Padilla vs. Mederos Pick, Prediction
Chris Padilla missed weight on Friday, coming in two pounds over the lightweight allowance; he will be fined 20% of his purse, and the fight will continue as scheduled.
MarQuel Mederos opened closer to a +160 underdog in this matchup, and the line has started to move in his favor; I would play him at +115 or better, compared to a projected line of +105.
Both fighters are unbeaten in the UFC; Padilla has a five-inch reach advantage, but Mederos is both the more proactive and technical striker and the better athlete. Mederos has averaged 7.4 strikes landed per five minutes at distance (+2.1 differential) compared to 5.1 for Padilla, who enjoys killing clock by pushing opponents up against the fence (95% control rate) and controlling them in the clinch.
Padilla doesn't necessarily try to get his fights to the ground (1.7 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance), and Mederos has good takedown defense too (78%); the main question is whether he can reverse position in the clinch and get his back off of the fence, or break away and return to the center of the octagon to re-engage in the striking, without getting clipped by an elbow as he exits the pocket.
Mederos doesn't stand in front of his opponents, and he won't allow Padilla to bully him backward toward the cage wall; I'd expect him to stay on his bike and utilize his speed and footwork to frustrate Padilla on the outside and negate the reach discrepancy.
I do show an edge on the ends inside the distance prop (projected +145, listed +175) relative to the market too, but feel that Mederos' best path is to limit pocket engagements. At the same time, Padilla negates a lot of mutual finish equity with his clinch control.
Projection: Padilla (51.3%)
Zerillo's Picks:
- MarQuel Mederos (+144, 0.5u), Polymarket, bet to +115
