Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godinez Odds
| Suarez Odds | -148 |
| Godinez Odds | +124 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-500/+340) |
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida |
| Bout Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 327 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 327 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godinez prediction for UFC 327 on Saturday, April 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Suarez vs. Godinez pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Suarez | Godinez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-1 | 14-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:42 | 13:47 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 115 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 61" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/19/1990 | 09/06/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.95 | 4.51 |
| SS Accuracy | 60% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.58 | 4.03 |
| SS Defense | 45% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.41 | 2.96 |
| TD Acc | 43% | 41% |
| TD Def | 80% | 81% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.9 |
Suarez vs. Godinez Pick, Prediction
Tatiana Suarez is taller and longer than Loopy Godinez (3" taller, 5" reach advantage) and has generally proven stronger than every strawweight that she has faced.
Still, Suarez has dealt with injuries throughout her career and has seemed severely diminished athletically in her recent bouts, including a one-sided title fight loss to Zhang Weili and a tight decision win over Amanda Lemos. Godinez is not as big or as strong as Lemos, but she is a much better wrestler than the Brazilian, and if she can use her wrestling to stay upright, she should prove to be the much better striker than Suarez, too.
Suarez averages a high rate of takedowns (11.7 per five minutes at distance, 83% control rate), and I would expect her to get on top of Godinez (82% takedown defense, 72% control rate) early. If Godinez works to get off her back, however, she can keep herself in the fight, and the longer the fight goes, the more success she should eventually have against a tiring Suarez with her first-layer takedown defense.
Godinez is typically a proactive offensive wrestler (4.0 attempts per five minutes, 41% accuracy), but she'll be trying to sprawl and brawl in this matchup. She has shown the ability to both scramble up against opponents and reverse them from the bottom position.
Suarez is the best wrestler Godinez has ever faced, but doesn't always do much with her takedowns beyond positional control. It's possible that Godinez – the better boxer (+0.3 to -0.1 differential per minute at distance) – could steal rounds with minimal striking exchanges on the feet, if Suarez doesn't land damage with her top time.
I would take Loopy to +120 pre-fight, but anticipate that you'll find a better price live after Round 1, or midway through Round 2, before the momentum flips. If she's able to deny takedowns from the outset, you'd want that pre-fight ticket; in that case, you'd probably also want to have some Godinez by KO/TKO (projected +1649, listed +2500), given the potential speed and striking discrepancy and Tatiana's declining athleticism due to her career-altering injuries.
Projection: Suarez (51.6%)
Zerillo's Picks:
- Loopy Godinez (+144, 0.25u), Polymarket, bet to +120
- Loopy Godinez Live after Round 1
