Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico Odds
| Pitbull Odds | +225 |
| Pico Odds | -278 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-188/+145) |
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida |
| Bout Time | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 327 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 327 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico prediction for UFC 327 on Saturday, April 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Pitbull vs. Pico pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Pitbull | Pico | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 37-8 | 13-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 16:04 | 3:21 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 07/07/1987 | 09/23/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.26 | 4.49 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.68 | 3.88 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.49 | 8.96 |
| TD Acc | 33% | 66% |
| TD Def | 88% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.0 |
Pitbull vs. Pico Pick, Prediction
The line for this Featherweight bout also dropped sharply over the past week; Patricio "Pitbull" Friere was closer to +290 before money came in, bringing the odds in line with my projection.
Pico is returning just eight months after a brutal knockout via spinning back elbow against Lerone Murphy at UFC 319, the fourth KO loss of his pro career, all as a favorite (-170, -700, -900, and -585). He is both the better athlete and nine years younger than Pitbull, but Patricio is one of the best fighters in the history of Featherweight MMA; a former Bellator double champion with nearly three times the experience and better wins (and losses) than Pico.
Despite the age gap, you could argue that Pitbull is not only more durable, but significantly so, and that he'll be one big punch away from a knockout for the duration of this fight.
Pico remains the better – and faster – boxer, and the bigger man (2" taller, 3" reach advantage), but will look to use his wrestling to dominate the matchup given those durability concerns. And despite Pitbull's low center of gravity, I think the differential in fast-twitch explosiveness will matter most in the grappling exchanges.
I do show a small edge on the fight to reach a decision (projected +113, listed +135), which I would take small to +125. Pico may fight more conservatively and focus on securing and maintaining top position to register his first UFC Win.
Projection: Pico (68%)
Zerillo's Picks:
- Fight Goes to Decision (+128, 0.25u), FanDuel, bet to +120
