Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott Odds
| Burns Odds | +250 |
| Malott Odds | -310 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (100/-130) |
| Location | Canda Life Center, Winnipeg, Manitoba |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Winnipeg odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Winnipeg with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott prediction for UFC Winnipeg on Saturday, April 18, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Canada Life Center in Winnipeg, Canada, for a 12-fight card, featuring an important showdown in the welterweight division between former title challenger and No. 11-ranked contender Gilbert Burns and Ontario native "Proper" Mike Malott.
Malott enters Saturday on a three-fight winning streak, with a 7-1 promotional record, but this matchup will mark his first career main event or five-round fight, and he's shown questionable cardio in past bouts.
Gilbert "Durinho" Burns will make his 25th walk to the Octagon for his third consecutive and sixth career UFC main event or five-round fight. Burns enters on a three-fight losing streak, but his past six losses have all come against fighters that are either current or former champions (Kamaru Usman, Khamzat Chimaev, Belal Muhammad, Jack Della Maddalena) or contenders who may fight for or win a belt in the near future (Sean Brady and Michael Morales).
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Winnipeg Main Event on Saturday and use those factors to bet on these welterweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 10:45 p.m. ET (7:45 p.m. PT) on Saturday evening.
Here's my Burns vs. Malott pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Burns | Malott | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-9 | 13-2-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:21 | 8:52 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/20/1986 | 11/07/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.15 | 3.93 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.64 | 3.06 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.12 | 1.88 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 50% |
| TD Def | 53% | 14% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.8 |
Mike Malott is both the taller and longer fighter (3" taller, 2" reach advantage) and five years younger than the 39-year-old Gilbert Burns.
Malott should be the faster, more powerful striker when both men are fresh (+1.7 to -1.1 striking differential at distance), and Burns — who has never been particularly durable — is beginning to react worse to damaging shots as he nears 40.
Still, Burns is both the better and more proactive grappler in this matchup (averages 2.9 takedowns per five minutes at distance, vs. 1.4 for Malott), and Malott typically wins minutes by getting on top of opponents.
That is unlikely to be an option for him here against Burns, a former IBJJF World Champion (gi and no-gi), who may look to put Malott on bottom from the outset.
We haven't seen much of Malott's bottom game, but we do know that he tires when he has to work in the grappling realm. Burns is an excellent control grappler (66% control rate vs. 82% for Malott) and, despite the numbers, potentially the more composed man at striking range (36% of his fight time vs. 22% for Malott).
As a result, unless Malott hurts Burns early, I'd expect an extended fight to play out competitively. And if Burns can get Malott down early, he has the jiu-jitsu to keep the Canadian there — if not finish the fight — and, at worst, he should be able to tire Malott out by forcing him to engage in grappling.
Burns is slowing down as he ages, but he has shown that he can fight into the championship rounds, whereas Malott has consistently faded in the back half of his three-round fights. His finish loss against Neil Magny — his lone loss in the UFC — was an awful look; Malott had no energy left in the final minute and turtled up rather than attempting to survive to the final bell. He also had questionable efforts in Bellator (a draw in which he won a 10-8 first round before fading), and even in his last fight against Kevin Holland, he received multiple breaks to rest after illegal strikes.
As a result, I don't trust Malott's gas tank in an extended fight. He's dangerous early — and can finish Burns within the opening minutes of the matchup if Burns is not measured in his entries — but I would favor the elder man the longer the fight goes. I don't think the championship rounds — and an added 10 minutes — are beneficial to Malott's style or stamina. Moreover, cardio is not a skill I expect him to improve in his mid-thirties; he's more than likely a finished product.
Burns' strength of schedule has not flattered his form, but he was leading on the scorecards against Jack Della Maddalena before a third-round knockout loss; the question is whether he has regressed further athletically as he nears 40, following another knockout loss last May (albeit against Morales — a fighter I expect to hold UFC gold eventually). Still, Malott represents a significant step down in competition relative to Burns' recent opponents.
If you are betting the underdog, I'd want at least a small Burns ticket pre-fight — he tends to start fast (winning early rounds against Jack Della and Kamaru Usman, for instance), and there's a possibility that Burns forces the wrestling and outgrapples Malott from the outset. Still, Malott will also be at his most dangerous in the first seven to ten minutes of the fight.
Either way, however, I would target Burns live anytime after Round 1.
Burns vs. Malott Pick, Prediction
I projected Mike Malott as a 63.5% favorite (-174 implied odds) in this matchup; as a result, I would bet the underdog, Gilbert Burns, on the moneyline at +190 or better, at a two percent edge compared to my projected odds. Malott's odds opened closer to -590, while Burns's were closer to +420, but the line has steadily moved inward.
Additionally, as I mentioned above, I would look to target Burns live anytime after Round 1.
I also project an edge on the fight to go to a decision (projected +237, listed +300), and by extension either the Over 2.5 Rounds (+105) or Fight Starts Round 3 (-128).
However, I might prefer to add a small structure on Burns to win in Round 3 (+2200), Round 4 (+2800), or Round 5 (+3300), considering Malott's lingering stamina concerns going into his first career five-round fight.
Sean's Picks: Gilbert Burns +240 (FanDuel) | Fight Starts Round 3 -128 (Caesars) | Gilbert Burns wins in Round 3 +2900, Round 4 +4750, or Round 5 +7000 (Fanatics) | Gilbert Burns Live after Round 1
