Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain Odds
| Phillips Odds | +124 |
| Jourdain Odds | -148 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-188/+145) |
| Location | Canada Life Center, Winnipeg, Manitoba |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 327 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 327 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain prediction for UFC Winnipeg on Saturday, April 18, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Kyler Phillips looked to be on the road to the top of the rankings, until dropping consecutive fights against Rob Ront and Vinicius Oliveira. He's coming in as a slight underdog on enemy territory against Canada's Charles "Air" Jourdain, who is looking to extend his 2-0 winning streak since dropping down to bantamweight. Will the recent streaks for both men continue, or can Phillips right the ship at the expense of Jourdain's momentum?
Here's my Phillips vs. Jourdain pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Phillips | Jourdain | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-4 | 17-8-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:20 | 11:18 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 6/12/1995 | 11/27/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.04 | 5.48 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.83 | 4.25 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.31 | 0.33 |
| TD Acc | 45% | 21% |
| TD Def | 75% | 47% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.7 |
It's incredible that Charles Jourdain ever fought at featherweight, since he doesn't even appear to be a particularly big bantamweight. He has a slimmer build than Phillips and will still be giving up three inches in reach despite dropping down a division.
Of course, that drop has paid off so far. Jourdain had lost consecutive fights at 145lbs, most recently getting badly knocked out by Jean Silva, before making the switch. Since then, he's picked up a pair of guillotine victories over Davey Grant and Victor Henry. Henry (37 years old at the time of the fight) and Grant (nearly 40) are/were well past their primes when they fought Jourdain, making this the first real test for him at 135lbs.
Jourdain is listed as a switch-stance fighter, but fights more frequently out of a southpaw stance. He likes to throw power kicks from his rear leg when standing southpaw, while utilizing more jabs and lead hooks from an orthodox stance. He's a relatively high-volume striker with acceptable power (by bantamweight standards), but his primary goal on the feet seems to be to induce bad takedown attempts from his opponents. The point there is to look for his patented guillotine choke, which he typically uses as an alternative to takedown defense.
Four of Jourdain's last five wins have come via the technique, with the lone exception a forgettable fight against Kron Gracie in which Gracie repeatedly tried to pull guard while being picked apart on the feet by Jourdain. The issue for Jourdain is that he doesn't often initiate grappling offensively, instead relying on his opponents to put themselves in a disadvantageous situation.
That might not be a great plan against Phillips, a strong wrestler and BJJ black belt who began jiu-jitsu at the age of three. Phillips has never been submitted (or finished in general) in his professional career, and has gotten the best of nearly all of the grappling exchanges he's been involved in. I don't see him getting caught in a fairly low-level submission like a guillotine, even if he does choose to wrestle.
On the feet, Phillips is a fairly straightforward kickboxer who uses right-side strikes well against southpaw opponents. He hurt Vinicius "Lok Dog" Oliveira multiple times in the first round with straight right hands, while barely missing a head kick that would've ended the night. Phillips moves extremely well, constantly bouncing around and adjusting his position, before pushing forward with straight shots and takedowns.
However, that constant movement comes at an energy cost. During his two-fight losing streak, he won the first round unanimously on all three judges' scorecards in both fights. "Matrix" was unable to keep up his pace beyond that, though, and eventually found himself getting hurt on the feet. Of course, Rob Font and Vinicius Oliveira bring much more power to the table than Jourdain, and they weren't able to finish Phillips. I'm more worried about Jourdain taking the final two rounds on points than finishing Phillips with strikes.
We haven't seen the Canadian fight past Round 2 since dropping to 135lbs, but I doubt the weight cut is enough to significantly impact his typically solid cardio. While he doesn't exactly have an infinite gas tank, there's not much concern about his ability to maintain his fighting style across 15 minutes.
Phillips vs. Jourdain Pick, Prediction
My initial read here was to take Kyler Phillips and the points spread, since I see him having more finishing upside and he's very likely to win Round 1. However, if we're willing to call our shot on which round he wins, we can get a much better price than the -155 we have to lay on his +3.5 spread.
DraftKings offers a "Round 1 Point Spread" line, where you can select which fighter you want to lay points with. Phillips at -1.5 is +180, and he covers that line by winning all three judges' scorecards or finishing the fight in that round.
I will, however, also be putting half of a unit on Phillips' moneyline, which has came down throughout the week despite a majority of Tapology predictions being on Jourdain. That's a good sign that there's sharp money on the underdog. Plus, Jourdain's typical range of outcomes is "guillotine victory or loss," and I don't see the former working on Phillips here.
Billy's Picks: Kyler Phillips +130 (BetMGM) | Phillips R1 Spread -1.5 +180 (DraftKings)
