William Purnell-Imagn Images. Pictured: Gauge Young.
Read our UFC Winnipeg predictions for this live event on Saturday from the Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg. As is the new normal, the prelims kick off at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with a 9:00 p.m. main card.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
Mark Vologdin is the rare fighter who was signed to the UFC despite losing his fight on the Contender Series. The fact that it was arguably the best fight of 2025 probably has something to do with that:
While there's certainly a ton of value in putting on exciting fights, a loss is still a loss, and Vologdin fairly clearly lost that fight. A unique fighter, he stands just 5'3" and is the shortest (men's) bantamweight on the roster. What's even more unique is that despite his short stature, he's almost exclusively a striker, coming from a Kyokushin Karate background.
The problem with that dynamic is that plenty of his opponents can punch him from farther away than he can kick, so Vologdin needs to aggressively close the distance to land anything. Doing so opens up plenty of opportunities for takedowns from his opponents, and the three he gave up on the Contender Series likely was the difference between winning and losing that fight.
That makes Castaneda a difficult debut opponent for the exciting Russian. Castaneda has taken down his last five opponents, and won via submission the fight prior. He will almost certainly take advantage of Vologdin's aggressive forward movement and put him on the canvas, where he holds a fairly considerable edge in grappling skill. I'd feel even better if Castaneda was more aggressive with strikes on the ground. He failed to land a single significant strike on the ground in either of his last two fights, despite more than seven minutes of combined control time.
However, he can likely still get the nod from the judges based on control and takedowns, even if he doesn't do a ton of damage, as Vologdin certainly won't be hurting him from his back. Consider this my "please punch" special of the week, but with a solid floor, even if Castaneda doesn't answer my request.
The best line at the moment is -125 via Hard Rock Bet, but the lines are on the move with Vologdin missing weight. I'd take Castaneda up to -150.
Gauge Young is six years younger than Thiago Moises, who moves very slowly for a 31-year-old fighter, and I'd expect him to be the much faster man and the more technical striker (+0-.4 to -2.3 strike differential per minute at distance) in what amounts to a relatively binary matchup
Moises has a path to victory on the mat – likely via submission, but he isn't the most effective or reliable wrestler (2.3 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance, 36% takedown accuracy). You can ignore Moises' 49% control rate (vs. Young's 89%); fights against Islam Makhachev, for instance, will drag that number down.
Young showed that he can get taken down by the likes of Quillan Salkilld (in a contender series loss), but he does well to scramble off of his back (permitted just 4:40 of control time from nine takedowns) and has proven that he's comfortable grappling in general, by landing some takedowns of his own against Maheshate (landed three takedowns for 3:51 control time).
If he's able to deny takedowns from Moises and keep the fight standing, I'd expect Young to finish the fight via strikes. While Moises is just 31, he not only moves incredibly slowly for his age but also seems to be in decline; a flash-knockout loss at the hands of Jared Gordon, who is more of a point fighter, wasn't a particularly good look.
Moises is very hittable (53% striking defense) when he's stuck in the pocket, as he leaves his head on the center line. Even if Young gets taken down for stretches in this fight, and fails to land the knockout shot, you can still favor him far more reliably on damage across a 15-minute fight; his volume (189 distance strike attempts in 11 minutes against Maheshate) even in limited exchanges should help him to seperate on the scorecards, even if Moises has a bit of grappling success early.
My model makes Gauge Young a near -190 favorite in this fight (and his line has started to steam upward); play the favorite up to -175.
Additionally, I expect this relatively binary fight to finish around 50% of the time, and I would play the ends inside the distance prop at +110 or better.
Lastly, I project a correlated edge on Young by KO/TKO (projected +271, listed +300), which you can consider for small stakes or include in a longshot round robin.
Pick: Gauge Young -150 (FanDuel) | Fight Ends Inside the Distance +125 (Caesars)
Action Network is a team of seasoned sports betting experts specializing in a broad range of sports, from the NFL and NBA to less mainstream options like cricket and darts. Their staff includes well-known analysts like Sean Koerner and Stuckey, recognized for their accurate predictions and deep sports knowledge. The team is dedicated to delivering expert analysis and daily best bets, ensuring bettors are well-informed across all major sports.
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.
