Check out the Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics prediction for UFC 327 on Saturday, April 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Gamrot vs. Ribovics pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Gamrot
Ribovics
Record
25-8 (1 NC)
15-2
Avg. Fight Time
12:09
11:01
Height
5'10"
5'10"
Weight (pounds)
155 lbs.
155 lbs.
Reach (inches)
70"
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Orthodox
Date of birth
12/11/1990
04/27/1996
Sig Strikes Per Min
3.29
8.09
SS Accuracy
51%
43%
SS Absorbed Per Min
2.96
6.30
SS Defense
59%
54%
Take Down Avg
5.15
0.39
TD Acc
37%
66%
TD Def
83%
70%
Submission Avg
0.1
0.2
Gamrot vs. Ribovics Pick, Prediction
Gamrot has taken money all week, moving from around -145 (59.1% implied) out to -200 (66.7% implied), as a reliable chain wrestler (7.1 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance, 84% control rate) against an opponent in Ribovics who has shown a tendency to get stuck on bottom (70% takedown defense, 16% control rate).
Ribovics is the younger and more durable man (five years), the better striker (+1.9 to +0.0 per minute), and he typically maintains a hellacious pace (9.9 strikes landed per minute at distance; a pace of 149 over a 15-minute striking fight), which can help to flip a fight late.
Gamrot is seemingly overdue for a knockout loss; he's been knocked down five times in the UFC, and only finished once – it's only a matter of time before he doesn't recover from a critical hit. Moreover, like Suarez, he doesn't always do enough damage with his takedowns to make them worth the effort. And, seemingly, in his mid-thirties, I'm unsure he's still able to sustain the same pace he used to; we're starting to see him slow down in the third round of his higher-paced fights, particularly when opponents deny his level changes.
Gamrot should get on top of Ribovics early, but you may fight an opportune live entry on the underdog, after Round 1 or midway through Round 2.
Ribocic has put in extensive work to improve his defensive grappling, but Gamrot has also taken down each of his 12 UFC opponents; he is a different level of wrestler than what Ribovics has seen to date (Loik Radzhabov landed 11 of 21; Elves Brener 0-for-9), but if he makes Gamrot work for them, there should be a path to rally in the back half of the fight.
I don't project value on either side of the moneyline or the total, and only a slight edge on Ribovics to win by decision (projected +415, listed +450), but I might prefer his odds to win in Round 2 (+1100) or Round 3 (+1600) in addition to the live angle.
Projection: Gamrot (65.5%)
Zerillo's Picks:
Esteban Ribovics wins in Round 2 (+1100, 0.05u), Fanatics, bet to +900
Esteban Ribovics wins in Round 3 (+1600, 0.05u), DraftKings, bet to +1000
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
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