Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young Odds
| Moises Odds | +110 |
| Young Odds | -130 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-195/+150) |
| Location | Canada Life Center, Winnipeg, Manitoba |
| Bout Time | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Winnipeg odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Winnipeg with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young prediction for UFC Winnipeg on Saturday, April 18, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
UFC Winnipeg lacks starpower, but the main card does feature some interesting matchmaking that will separate the gatekeepers from potential contenders. One of the fights fitting squarely into that category is the bout between lightweight mainstay Thiago Moises and the 25 year-old prospect Gauge Young. Young, who is coming off the best performance of his career and his first UFC win, will try to pay off his price tag against the veteran Moises. I am not as confident as the oddsmakers that he has earned his status as favorite heading into Saturday night.
Here's my Moises vs. Young pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Moises | Young | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-9 | 10-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:42 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/23/1995 | 7/14/2000 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.48 | 5.71 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.08 | 5.82 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 48% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.31 | 1.00 |
| TD Acc | 35% | 30% |
| TD Def | 52% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 1.1 | 0 |
Young is a high-volume pressure fighter averaging 5.7 significant strikes landed per minute over his short career thus far in the UFC. The formula of forward pressure mixed with a high output has caused major issues for his opponent Moises historically, as the veteran struggles to maintain consistent volume when his fights remain at kickboxing range.
Moises averages just 2.4 significant strikes landed per minute over his fifteen UFC contests. Young will have the clear edge in volume and the benefit of taking a very limited amount of damage in his youth compared to his opponent. However, this is a stylistic clash that Moises can win by leaning on his elite grappling skills.
Moises is a decorated black belt with wins over better fighters than Young has yet to face. Moises is also just 31 years old, despite an abundance of experience.
Many will point to Moises' lack of durability as he has aged as the sign his career may be winding down, but it is important to add context that he has simply been facing stiffer competition. Thats thanks to his five wins in seven fights between 2020 and 2023 earning him tougher challenges.
Moises has had an up and down career, but his recent losses have come at the hands of fighters near the top of the division. Whenever Moises has gotten a bit of reprieve from his strength of schedule, he has handled himself very well. Moises’ experience should give him a tactical advantage, as he undoubtedly has the tools to counteract the aggressiveness of Young given the experience gap between the two.
Besides landing takedowns and dragging Young into his realm, Moises has also shown the ability to attack his opponent with leg kicks. This is one of the ways I expect Moises to negate Young’s constant forward movement. In Young’s three UFC appearances, his opponents have landed 42 of 49 attempted leg licks, a 85% success rate.
I do not want to discount Gauge Young’s potential moving forward, but there are too many unanswered questions about him to make him the favorite in this spot, especially as he continues to move towards the -160 range. It was not long ago that Young was taken down 9 times in his Dana White Contender Series fight, and while he showed a slick ability to get back to his feet, I expect the grappling of Moises to win the day by prioritizing position and control.
Moises vs. Young Pick, Prediction
From December 2023 through April of 2025, Young fought five times, winning three on the regional scene and suffering two losses under the UFC banner. In those three wins in FAC (Fighting Alliance Championship), his opponents had a combined record of 13-16.
If Young has continued to make improvements, and gets the exact type of fight he wants, he is going to look like a massive favorite over Moises. It is doubtful Moises can withstand the heat of such intense pressure, especially as it seems his durability is waning.
However, the inverse is just as likely with Moises slipping punches and getting into the clinch – once Moises gets Young to the mat, we are going to learn quite a bit about where the younger prospect is in his career.
Young’s ascension is already priced in, as is Moises recent knockout loss, which is the last thing bettors remember. At the current number, I must back the veteran with more experience and a clear path to victory. At worst, we are looking at a binary fight that is closer to a toss-up.
John's Picks: Thiago Moises moneyline +140 (DraftKings)
