Check out my UFC 327 predictions for every fight on tonight's pay-per-view at Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida.
Below, I look at the latest UFC 327 odds and break down and predict each bout on today's PPV fight card with updated odds. You can also find my prop and finish projections for each fight.
Let's break it down.
UFC 327 Predictions
After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value, and after looking at the UFC 327 odds, today's event is no exception.
So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 327 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.
UFC 327 odds are as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 327 with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 327 Moneyline Projections
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.
UFC 327 Prop Projections
In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter's likelihood of winning by Decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance and for each fighter to win inside the distance.
Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.
Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado
| Welterweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Radtke | -180 |
| Prado | +150 |
| Over/Under 1.5 Rounds | -215/+165 |
Projection: Radtke (52.6%)
The first fight on Saturday's card featured a significant age gap, as 23-year-old Argentine Francisco Prado meets 35-year-old American Charles Radtke.
When there is at least a decade between MMA opponents, the younger fighter has won 71% of the time (460-187) at average odds of -131 (56.8% implied), nearly 15% above expectation.
Prado is well-trained, working at American Top Team in South Florida, and given his age, athleticism, and training situation, should continue to improve as an MMA fighter, despite a 1-4 record in the promotion. He has arguably faced the tougher UFC competition than Radtke, too.
Chuck Buffalo is the more well-rounded fighter and has a 3" reach advantage, but Prado can close the distance as the more durable man; he hits just as hard (if not harder), and has improved his grappling to the point where he should be able to keep the fight standing and engage in a 50/50 striking battle.
Prado can get countered as he tries to close the distance, but if he forces a pocket brawl, you're betting a coin flip at a near 40% expectation.
Bet Prado's moneyline to +120 (projected +111), and consider his odds to win by decision (projected +446, listed +900 at DraftKings) despite projecting him as the likelier of the pair to finish the fight.
Bets
- Francisco Prado (+163, 0.5u), Polymarket, bet to +120
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque
| Middleweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Gastelum | -278 |
| Luque | +225 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Rounds | -154/+120 |
Projection: Gastelum (69.1%)
Vicente Luque is moving up to middleweight for this bout but will still hold a size advantage (2" taller, 4" reach advantage) over Kelvin Gastelum, who has always been too big to cut to 170 but too small to fill out at 185.
It seemed like Luque was done two years ago, following news of a brain bleed that threatened his career, and an awkward knockout loss against Joaquin Buckley. He returned to upset Themba Gorimbo in under a minute as a big underdog, but has looked slow and well past his prime in a subsequent finish loss to Kevin Holland, and was recently battered for 15 minutes at the hands of Joel Alvarez.
Gastelum is the far more durable man, but has shown a susceptibility to awkward submissions, and it's possible that Luque, a front choke specialist, can latch onto his neck and finish the fight.
Still, it's likelier that Gastelum hits Luque once and folds him; the cumulative damage Luque has sustained both throughout his career and particularly in recent years suggests that the end of his career is very near, and moving up in weight is a last-ditch play born of desperation to prolong the inevitable.
This matchup is an opportunity for Gastelum to secure his first knockout win since 2017 (in Michael Bisping's final fight). I do project an actual edge on Luque by submission (projected +824, listed +1300) as opposed to Gastelum by KO/TKO (projected +203, listed +180).
However, considering the potential binary nature of this matchup, I would bet the fight to end inside the distance (projected -126, listed -105) up to -115.
Bets
- Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-105, 0.25u), DraftKings, bet to -115
Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos
| Lightweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Padilla | -162 |
| Mederos | +136 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Rounds | -260/+195 |
Projection: Padilla (51.3%)
Chris Padilla missed weight on Friday, coming in two pounds over the lightweight allowance; he will be fined 20% of his purse, and the fight will continue as scheduled.
MarQuel Mederos opened closer to a +160 underdog in this matchup, and the line has started to move in his favor; I would play him at +115 or better, compared to a projected line of +105.
Both fighters are unbeaten in the UFC; Padilla has a five-inch reach advantage, but Mederos is both the more proactive and technical striker and the better athlete. Mederos has averaged 7.4 strikes landed per five minutes at distance (+2.1 differential) compared to 5.1 for Padilla, who enjoys killing clock by pushing opponents up against the fence (95% control rate) and controlling them in the clinch.
Padilla doesn't necessarily try to get his fights to the ground (1.7 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance), and Mederos has good takedown defense too (78%); the main question is whether he can reverse position in the clinch and get his back off of the fence, or break away and return to the center of the octagon to re-engage in the striking, without getting clipped by an elbow as he exits the pocket.
Mederos doesn't stand in front of his opponents, and he won't allow Padilla to bully him backward toward the cage wall; I'd expect him to stay on his bike and utilize his speed and footwork to frustrate Padilla on the outside and negate the reach discrepancy.
I do show an edge on the ends inside the distance prop (projected +145, listed +175) relative to the market too, but feel that Mederos' best path is to limit pocket engagements. At the same time, Padilla negates a lot of mutual finish equity with his clinch control.
Bets
- MarQuel Mederos (+144, 0.5u), Polymarket, bet to +115
Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godinez
| Women's Strawweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Suarez | -148 |
| Godinez | +124 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Rounds | -500/+340 |
Projection: Suarez (51.6%)
Tatiana Suarez is taller and longer than Loopy Godinez (3" taller, 5" reach advantage) and has generally proven stronger than every strawweight that she has faced.
Still, Suarez has dealt with injuries throughout her career and has seemed severely diminished athletically in her recent bouts, including a one-sided title fight loss to Zhang Weili and a tight decision win over Amanda Lemos. Godinez is not as big or as strong as Lemos, but she is a much better wrestler than the Brazilian, and if she can use her wrestling to stay upright, she should prove to be the much better striker than Suarez, too.
Suarez averages a high rate of takedowns (11.7 per five minutes at distance, 83% control rate), and I would expect her to get on top of Godinez (82% takedown defense, 72% control rate) early. If Godinez works to get off her back, however, she can keep herself in the fight, and the longer the fight goes, the more success she should eventually have against a tiring Suarez with her first-layer takedown defense.
Godinez is typically a proactive offensive wrestler (4.0 attempts per five minutes, 41% accuracy), but she'll be trying to sprawl and brawl in this matchup. She has shown the ability to both scramble up against opponents and reverse them from the bottom position.
Suarez is the best wrestler Godinez has ever faced, but doesn't always do much with her takedowns beyond positional control. It's possible that Godinez – the better boxer (+0.3 to -0.1 differential per minute at distance) – could steal rounds with minimal striking exchanges on the feet, if Suarez doesn't land damage with her top time.
I would take Loopy to +120 pre-fight, but anticipate that you'll find a better price live after Round 1, or midway through Round 2, before the momentum flips. If she's able to deny takedowns from the outset, you'd want that pre-fight ticket; in that case, you'd probably also want to have some Godinez by KO/TKO (projected +1649, listed +2500), given the potential speed and striking discrepancy and Tatiana's declining athleticism due to her career-altering injuries.
Bets
- Loopy Godinez (+144, 0.25u), Polymarket, bet to +120
- Loopy Godinez Live after Round 1
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics
| Lightweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Gamrot | -205 |
| Ribovics | +170 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Rounds | -260/+195 |
Projection: Gamrot (65.5%)
Gamrot has taken money all week, moving from around -145 (59.1% implied) out to -200 (66.7% implied), as a reliable chain wrestler (7.1 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance, 84% control rate) against an opponent in Ribovics who has shown a tendency to get stuck on bottom (70% takedown defense, 16% control rate).
Ribovics is the younger and more durable man (five years), the better striker (+1.9 to +0.0 per minute), and he typically maintains a hellacious pace (9.9 strikes landed per minute at distance; a pace of 149 over a 15-minute striking fight), which can help to flip a fight late.
Gamrot is seemingly overdue for a knockout loss; he's been knocked down five times in the UFC, and only finished once – it's only a matter of time before he doesn't recover from a critical hit. Moreover, like Suarez, he doesn't always do enough damage with his takedowns to make them worth the effort. And, seemingly, in his mid-thirties, I'm unsure he's still able to sustain the same pace he used to; we're starting to see him slow down in the third round of his higher-paced fights, particularly when opponents deny his level changes.
Gamrot should get on top of Ribovics early, but you may fight an opportune live entry on the underdog, after Round 1 or midway through Round 2.
Ribocic has put in extensive work to improve his defensive grappling, but Gamrot has also taken down each of his 12 UFC opponents; he is a different level of wrestler than what Ribovics has seen to date (Loik Radzhabov landed 11 of 21; Elves Brener 0-for-9), but if he makes Gamrot work for them, there should be a path to rally in the back half of the fight.
I don't project value on either side of the moneyline or the total, and only a slight edge on Ribovics to win by decision (projected +415, listed +450), but I might prefer his odds to win in Round 2 (+1100) or Round 3 (+1600) in addition to the live angle.
Bets
- Esteban Ribovics wins in Round 2 (+1100, 0.05u), Fanatics, bet to +900
- Esteban Ribovics wins in Round 3 (+1600, 0.05u), DraftKings, bet to +1000
- Esteban Ribovics Live after Round 1
Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown
| Welterweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Holland | -112 |
| Brown | -108 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Rounds | -145/+114 |
Projection: Kevin Holland (52.4%)
For additional information on this bout, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.
Holland opened closer to a +130 underdog in this fight, but has moved to a pick'em following Friday's weigh-ins. Both men are 6'3, but Holland – who has fluctuated between the 170 and 185 pound divisions – has a 3" reach advantage.
Holland is also more accustomed to facing taller, longer fighters, having been a former middleweight. In contrast, Brownown typically has a size and length advantage over his 170-pound opponents, which plays into his outside-fighting style. Brown is more process-driven, whereas Holland tends to negate his own reach advantage by searching for high-entertainment brawls.
I'm generally a fan of Randy "Rudeboy" Brown and believe he is both the more technical fighter of the pair and potentially the better grappler. Still, he's less durable than Holland, who has always looked significantly stronger at welterweight (when he's taking the weight cut seriously) than at middleweight, and if Brown does brawl, I don't think the fight will end well for him.
These welterweights are similar across the board in age, measureables, and stats. If I were able to project these fights out earlier in the week (waiting gives me better market data), I would have bet Holland at any plus money price – and I still would before fight time.
At current prices, however, I'm going to pass on betting this potential fight of the night candidate.
Patricio Freire vs. Aaron Pico
| Featherweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Freire | +230 |
| Pico | -285 |
| Over/Under 1.5 Rounds | -188/+145 |
Projection: Pico (68%)
The line for this Featherweight bout also dropped sharply over the past week; Patricio "Pitbull" Friere was closer to +290 before money came in, bringing the odds in line with my projection.
Pico is returning just eight months after a brutal knockout via spinning back elbow against Lerone Murphy at UFC 319, the fourth KO loss of his pro career, all as a favorite (-170, -700, -900, and -585). He is both the better athlete and nine years younger than Pitbull, but Patricio is one of the best fighters in the history of Featherweight MMA; a former Bellator double champion with nearly three times the experience and better wins (and losses) than Pico.
Despite the age gap, you could argue that Pitbull is not only more durable, but significantly so, and that he'll be one big punch away from a knockout for the duration of this fight.
Pico remains the better – and faster – boxer, and the bigger man (2" taller, 3" reach advantage), but will look to use his wrestling to dominate the matchup given those durability concerns. And despite Pitbull's low center of gravity, I think the differential in fast-twitch explosiveness will matter most in the grappling exchanges.
I do show a small edge on the fight to reach a decision (projected +113, listed +135), which I would take small to +125. Pico may fight more conservatively and focus on securing and maintaining top position to register his first UFC Win.
Bets
- Fight Goes to Decision (+128, 0.25u), FanDuel, bet to +120
Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr
| Featherweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Swanson | -108 |
| Landwehr | -112 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Rounds | -120/-110 |
Projection: Swanson (55.8%)
For additional information on Saturday's featherweight bout, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, John Lanfranca.
Cub Swanson enters his retirement fight on Saturday at age 42, closing out a nearly 20-year UFC career after having debuted in WEC in March 2007. While it's possible he has declined physically since his last appearance in late 2024, he put on a solid performance, defeating Billy Quarantillo in Round 3.
Conversely, 37-year-old Nate Landwehr – one of my favorite fighters on the roster – has looked slower and older in his recent bouts, both of which ended in third-round knockout losses against younger opponents. Landwehr – a former track athlete – typically has a better gas tank than his opponents, but he's no longer taking as much damage as he used to.
Swason is the better MMA fighter, the far more efficient striker (+0.9 to -1.1 differential per minute at distance), and even at his age, still the faster man. I do think he will hurt Landwehr early, but I have to favor the younger man's cardio in an extended contest, and would consider a live entry on Landwehr anytime after Round 1.
Still, I project Cub as the pre-fight favorite, and would take a position on his moneyline up to -115, before looking for a live exit on Landwehr by the halfway point of the fight. I also show value on Swanson by KO/TKO (projected +228, listed +290), which you can take down to +250.
Bets
- Cub Swanson (-106, 0.25u), FanDuel, bet to -115
- Nate Landwehr Live after Round 1
Dominick Reyes vs. Johnny Walker
| Light Heavyweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Reyes | -148 |
| Walker | +124 |
| Over/Under 1.5 Rounds | +145/-188 |
Projection: Reyes (57.9%)
For additional information on Saturday's Light Heavyweight bout, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, John Lanfranca.
I don't see many actionable angles in this fight, nor do I necessarily agree with my model's moneyline assessment of this matchup. My projection would lean toward taking Reyes at -125 or better, but I tend to think this is a dog or pass spot, given the relative chinniness of both fighters.
Walker is the bigger man (2" taller, 5" reach) and the more dynamic athlete than Reyes, but Dominik is the better minute winner (+0.9 to +0.5 striking differential per minute; 49% to 29% control rate in the grappling), and I'd favor him if the fight goes the distance.
I do project a slight edge on Reyes to win by decision (projected +630, listed +850), but would rather bet Walker by KO/TKO (projected +217, listed +240) if forced to choose.
Ultimately, unless I poke that KO prop small, I'm not overly interested in betting on this highly volatile fight without a particularly confident read.
Bets
- Johnny Walker wins by KO/TKO (+240, 0.1u), FanDuel, bet to +220
Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit
| Heavyweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Blaydes | -122 |
| Hokit | +102 |
| Over/Under 1.5 Rounds | -195/+150 |
Projection: Hokit (55.4%)
For additional information on Saturday's featured Heavyweight bout, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.
As discussed on the Action Network Podcast, Billy and I are head-to-head on this fight.
Hokit is still unproven, the smaller man (3" shorter, 7" reach discrepancy) and nowhere near a finished product as an MMA fighter, but he is six years younger, the faster athlete, and likely more durable than Curtis Blaydes, who has looked uncomfortable getting hit in the wake of knockout losses against Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall.
Hokit doesn't carry anywhere near the same level of power as those Heavyweights, but the optics from Blaydes aren't great for judging, and what Hokit lacks in power, he makes up for in quickness.
Both Blaydes and Hokit are former collegiate wrestlers. While Blaydes won an NJCAA championship before transitioning to MMA, Hokit was a Division I All-American who also played football before making the NFL practice squad. Blaydes is the bigger man (261 vs. 233 pounds), but I think Hokit may be the superior technical wrestler.
Moreover, Blaydes is eight years his senior and sustained an MCL tear in his last fight; even at Heavyweight, where prospects blossom later, they are on different career trajectories.
While this fight is a significant step up in competition for Hokit, I do project him as a near -115 favorite, and I would bet his moneyline to -105. I also project an edge on Hokit by KO/TKO (projected +189, listed +260) in the winning method market, and feel that his Round 1 odds (+450) are correlated with that outcome.
Bets
- Josh Hokit (+117, 0.5u), Polymarket, bet to -105
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Paulo Costa
| Light Heavyweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Murzakanov | -205 |
| Costa | +170 |
| Over/Under 1.5 Rounds | -245/+185 |
Projection: Murzakanov (55.3%)
For additional information on Saturday's featured co-main event, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Dan Tom.
Paulo Costa is moving up to Light Heavyweight for this matchup against Azamat Murzaknaov, who, like Kelvin Gastelum, has always been small relative to his weight class. As a result, Costa remains the bigger man (3" taller, 1" reach advantage) despite changing divisions.
Murzakanov is unbeaten in his professional career, but just three of those 16 wins have seen the scorecards, and he has certainly been trailing in fights where he secured a late finish. He is a calculated, low-volume striker, with a dangerous top game but limited commitment to grappling (1.5 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance). Still, Murzkanov seemingly finds his opening in every matchup and manages to land a concussive blow to put his opponent away.
Costa doesn't have a strong striking defense (49% career), but he's proven durable, and the lack of a weight cut will only help his chin and cardio. His most recent effort against Roman Kopylov was a vintage performance; Costa pressed on the gas and landed more than 30 significant strikes in every round. And if he maintains that type of pace against Murzakanov, he could make the Russian uncomfortable.
I'd expect Murzakanov to land heavy counters on Co. Still, if Paolo forces the issue and applies pressure while landing his body kick for attritional damage, the high pace could wear on Murzakanov in the back half of the fight.
I projected Costa closer to +125 pre-fight and would take his moneyline small at +135, but you can look to add live after Round 1, as the cardio dynamic of the matchup should shift in his favor.
Lastly, I show an edge on Costa to win by decision (projected +299, listed +500), which I would poke, considering I'd favor him on volume in a 15-minute fight
Bets
- Paulo Costa (+190, 0.25u), Caesars, bet to +135
- Paulo Costa wins by Decision (+500, 0.05u), DraftKings, bet to +325
- Paulo Costa Live after Round 1
Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulberg
| Light Heavyweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Prochazka | -118 |
| Ulberg | -102 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Rounds | -115/-115 |
Projection: Ulberg (56.9%)
For additional information on Saturday's main event, check out my full fight preview.
In short, I would bet Carlos Ulberg's pre-fight moneyline up to -120. However, whether or not you bet on Ulberg pre-fight, you can look for a live bet on Jiri anytime after Round 2.
Not only does the dynamic suggest that Ulberg is the likelier Round 1 winner, but the betting markets also agree with that assessment. Where you can bet the Round 1 winner (scorecard or finish), Ulberg is around -190, and Prochazka is +150. Ulberg is favored in the second round, too (-140), but the lines tilt toward Jiri (around -220 for Rounds 3, 4, and 5 individually) as the fight extends out.
I also show a slight edge on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -383, listed -350), and would consider betting the Under 2.5 Rounds (-120) or Fight Doesn't Start Round 4 (-150).
And considering the edges on both Ulberg and the Under, I show correlated value on Ulberg by knockout (KO/TKO) (projected +145, listed +195). You can likely extrapolate or ladder that combined thesis further into his odds to win in Round 1 (+650) or Round 2 (+900).
If you're betting on the Prochazka side, I would wait until the live betting and/or target his props to win in Round 4 (+1700) or Round 5 (+3000).
Bets
- Carlos Ulberg (+100, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -120
- Fight Doesn't Start Round 4 (-150, 0.2u), DraftKings, bet to -170
- Jiri Prochazka Live after Round 2
Sean Zerillo's UFC 327 Picks & Predictions
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Moneyline Bets
- Francisco Prado (+163, 0.5u), Polymarket, bet to +120
- MarQuel Mederos (+144, 0.5u), Polymarket, bet to +115
- Loopy Godinez (+144, 0.25u), Polymarket, bet to +120
- Cub Swanson (-106, 0.25u), FanDuel, bet to -115
- Josh Hokit (+117, 0.5u), Polymarket, bet to -105
- Paulo Costa (+190, 0.25u), Caesars, bet to +135
- Carlos Ulberg (+100, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -120
Prop Bets, Totals, and SGPs
- Gastelum/Luque, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-105, 0.25u), DraftKings, bet to -115
- Esteban Ribovics wins in Round 2 (+1100, 0.05u), Fanatics, bet to +900
- Esteban Ribovics wins in Round 3 (+1600, 0.05u), DraftKings, bet to +1000
- Freire/Pico, Fight Goes to Decision (+128, 0.25u), FanDuel, bet to +120
- Johnny Walker wins by KO/TKO (+240, 0.1u), FanDuel, bet to +220
- Paulo Costa wins by Decision (+500, 0.05u), DraftKings, bet to +325
- Ulberg/Prochaka, Fight Doesn't Start Round 4 (-150, 0.2u), DraftKings, bet to -170
Parlays
Live Bets
- Loopy Godinez Live after Round 1
- Esteban Ribovics Live after Round 1
- Nate Landwehr Live after Round 1
- Paulo Costa Live after Round 1
- Jiri Prochazka Live after Round 1
