Photo Credit: Dave Mandel-Imagn Images
Pictured: Gaston Bolanos reacts after defeating an opponent
Read our UFC Vegas 119 best bets for this live event on Saturday from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. We have the usual 5:00 p.m. ET start time (2:00 p.m. PT) for this event, with a 12-fight card.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
My betting card this week is filled with some heavy underdogs, one of those being Gaston Bolanos.
Michael Aswell Jr. certainly deserves to be favored in this matchup, but I'm surprised at how wide the betting line is, especially with the continued movement towards "The Texas Kid." Per Tapology, Bolanos has had the slightly more difficult UFC schedule and comes in with a better promotional record (2-2 compared to 1-2 for Aswell).
Aswell is a tough, exciting fighter, but I'm not convinced he's actually that good. His lone UFC win came against Lucas Almeida (2-4 UFC record), and he typically only finds success when he can overwhelm his opponents with volume. Absorbing more than seven significant strikes per minute isn't a great long-term plan, even if he has a slightly positive striking differential.
Bolanos isn't a top prospect by any stretch, with a 2-2 UFC record at 33 years old. However, he's solid all-around, with better overall striking numbers and a bit more grappling upside should he need it. The concern is that Aswell's volume sways the judges — and that's probably the likeliest outcome here — but Bolanos mixing in a takedown or two could potentially swing things his way, at least enough to cover his +350 price at BetRivers and Hard Rock Bet.
This isn't a best bet in the sense that I think it's likeliest to happen, but in terms of what line is the furthest away from what I'd make it myself? That just might be the case.
On this week's Action Network Podcast, both Billy and I landed on Christian Rodriguez as a consensus best bet when he was lined closer to -170; Billy doesn't like him much past -200 pre-fight, but I projected "Ceerod" as a 70% favorite (-235 implied odds), and I would take him up to -215.
You may also be able to find a better live price on the favorite during or after Round 1; "Hurricane" Hyder Amil is a fast starter, but Rodriguez is seven years younger and has a proven tendency to resist early and rally against aggressive fighters in the back half of his matchups (his upsets over Raul Rosas Jr. and Isaac Dulgarian were similarly impressive efforts).
Amil carries more power and is the likelier early finisher, but Rodriguez should be the more technical striker in an extended kickboxing matchup, and he has a grappling advantage, too (41% to 33% control rate; Ceerod attempts 4.1 takedowns per five minutes at distance, 41% accuracy).
Amil hasn't shown great takedown defense (permitted seven takedowns on 12 attempts) or proven himself reliable at scrambling up from his back, and if he spends as much time on bottom with Rodriguez as he did against Jamall Emmers (landed seven of eight takedowns, 8:35 control time), I'd expect Rodriguez to potentially find a finish.
The best entry point on this side may come live, but take Rodriguez pre-fight to -215 in the event he successfully grapples from the outset.
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