Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 329 (Saturday, July 11)

While Cesar Almeida is the more polished kickboxer than Damian Pinas, with three fights (all decisions) against Alex "Poatan" Pereira, Pinas is the bigger (5" reach advantage) and better athlete, and also 14 years his junior.

When there is at least a decade between MMA opponents, the younger fighter has won 70.9% of the time at average odds closer to 56% implied – nearly 15% above expectation. If you filter for 12-year gaps, the win% grows to 73.7%, compared to average implied odds of 59.5%.

As a result, despite showing a projected edge on the underdog, Almeida, I'm inclined to pass from a pre-fight perspective and wait to bet him live after Round 1; Pinas has finished all of his opponents within nine minutes – including seven of nine in Round 1 – and he likely becomes less powerful as his fights extend.

Almeida has not been finished professionally – though Abdul Razak Alhassan dropped him – and I'd expect him to fight cautiously early and draw out large movements from his opponent early, before upping his own offense in Round 2.

Still, I tend to think that Pinas has the special "death touch" type of power that seemingly a handful of fighters in the sport possess at any moment, and until he faces a durable grappler, his green skillset may not get fully exposed.

His athletic advantages should look particularly exaggerated against a 38-year-old opponent who fights with his hands low, and if Pinas wins, he likely does so quickly and violently.

That said, if Almeida eats a big shot early and survives, and/or is relatively undamaged after five minutes, I'd certainly look to take some 'dog money, and hopefully at an improved price from the pre-fight line.

I don't show an edge on the total or the distance props. While I show slight edges on either Pinas by Decision or Almeida by KO/TKO, I don't like the read on either, and neither is far enough off the market to be actionable.