A legendary rivalry takes center stage at UFC 329 as the former double-champion Conor McGregor finally returns to the Octagon after a five year hiatus following a massive bone injury. Thirteen years after their iconic first encounter, the Irishman is set to battle Max Holloway in a thrilling event that will take place tonight, at T-Mobile Arena.
As the fighters prepare for a memorable UFC event, at Polymarket there are many active markets, including three combos that point towards a heavy favorite, but with diverse paths to victory. Let’s break down all the options.
Three Combos, One Winner
The three combos on Polymarket have Max Holloway as the outright winner of the fight. Furthermore, the individual markets trading on who will come out victorious on UFC 329 also point towards a victory of the Hawaiian fighter, who currently holds nearly 70% of implied chances of defeating Conor McGregor.
While Holloway’s name appears on the three moneylines, what sets these parlays apart is the method used to win and the amount of rounds that this match will have.
Combo 1: Favorite Finish
The first combo offers a 2x multiplier and points toward Holloway winning the fight via Knockout or Technical Knockout. For this combination to pay out, the fight must end in under 3.5 rounds—meaning the referee stoppage or KO must occur before the 2:30 mark of Round 4 out of the five scheduled frames.
This combo represents the ultimate fade of Conor McGregor's five-year layoff. Traders stacking this position are making a highly insulated statistical wager. Holloway has been one of the most mechanically active and durable fighters in modern MMA history, so questioning McGregor's durability makes total sense here.
Combo 2: Grind & Grapple
The second active combo on the Polymarket matrix offers a 2.4x multiplier, and maps out a slightly more prolonged, grinding script for the dominant Hawaiian favorite. The props included in this combo are “Go the distance?” trading at No, and a total of over 1.5 rounds.
Traders choosing this combination are heavily backing the “Conor McGregor is washed” thesis, meaning that the former multi-category winner will not be capable of physically sustaining the combat. After all, the 37-year-old Irishman has not competed since he broke his leg in July 2021, during a fight against Dustin Poirier.
Combo 3: Submission Story
This combo offers the maximum payout, with a 7.8x multiplier. The main narrative behind this parlay is a submission victory of Holloway over McGregor in under 3.5 rounds.
It is crucial to consider that, in the individual brackets, the Yes shares for a victory by submission are trading at a massive discount. The market strongly believes that the much-anticipated rematch will be won by a KO or a TKO.
The same applies for the “Go the Distance?” option. Because of Conor McGregor’s obvious physical limitations, a 25-minute brutal combat with the full 5 rounds is highly unlikely. Of course, when you are dealing with one of the most competitive fighters in the history of the sport, nothing is set in stone.
A Clash of Styles
The fight presents a classic stylistic puzzle: the sharp, explosive counter-accuracy of McGregor's opening rounds colliding with the relentless volume and historic pacing of Holloway's later frames. If the Irishman wants to win, he will need a spectacular performance during the first minutes, catching his rival before he can establish his physical dominance.
Conversely, Holloway will target the body early to create a high-speed pursuit, dragging McGregor into a long fight where his legendary endurance and high-volume striking style can dictate the outcome.
Whether it concludes in a sudden burst of power or a grueling war of attrition, this rematch is set to permanently redefine the legacies of the contenders.
