Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden Odds
| Costa Odds | -225 |
| Durden Odds | +185 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-230/+175) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 5:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 329 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 329 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden prediction for UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Costa vs. Durden pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Costa | Durden | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-5 | 17-6-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:45 | 10:06 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/28/1996 | 3/29/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.86 | 3.24 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.70 | 3.94 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.77 | 3.99 |
| TD Acc | 26% | 49% |
| TD Def | 86% | 56% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.7 |
Costa vs. Durden Pick, Prediction
I don't project an edge on the moneyline or the total for the opening bout on Saturday's card; however, I do give Costa more knockout equity than the market and think there is value in that prop as opposed to his submission or overall inside-the-distance odds (projected +118, listed +110).
Costa is a well-rounded fighter, but he's both the more powerful athlete and the better striker in this fight, whereas Durden likely has the wrestling advantage and is crafty at finding submissions in scrambles.
Costa, who was finished in the third round of a short-notice UFC debut against Amir Albazi (and again in a fight against Aiden Coria), is replacing Ode Osbourne on short notice here, and Durden may have the better gas tank to begin with.
So, I'd rather target Costa to finish than his moneyline, and thankfully the projected edge points to the knockout prop as the best angle.
Consider Durden live after five minutes, but from a pre-fight perspective, I either want Costa by KO/TKO (+220; bet to +175) or Costa in Rounds 1-2 (+155)
Zerillo's Pick: Alessandro Costa wins by TKO/KO (+220, 0.25u), FanDuel; bet to +175
