Check out my Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman prediction for UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman Odds
| Du Plessis Odds | -230 |
| Usman Odds | +190 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-200/+154) |
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC OKC odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC OKC with our DraftKings promo code. | |
On Saturday, the UFC returns to Oklahoma City for the first time since 2017 with a 12-fight card, featuring an important main event in the 185-pound division between former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman and former middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis.
Usman enters off a main event win over Joaquin Buckley in Atlanta last June, putting an end to a three-fight losing streak. He has a wealth of main-event experience; 10 of his past 11 fights have been scheduled for five rounds.
Du Plessis enters off his first promotional loss, where he spent 21:40 of a 25-minute title defense on his back against Khamzat Chimaev, in the first decision loss of his pro career.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC OKC Main Event on Saturday night and use those factors to bet on these Middleweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 9:45 p.m. ET (6:45 p.m. PT) on Saturday night.
Here's my Du Plessis vs. Usman pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
While the height and reach for both fighters are similar, I'd expect Du Plessis (DDP) – a large middleweight – to look about as big against Usman – a natural welteweight – as Usman looked against Joaquin Buckley (another natural welterweight); the 15-pound jump between welterweight and middleweight, and the 20-pound jump from middleweight to light heavyweight creates more size mismatches at 170 and 185 than it does in the smaller weightclasses, where there is just 10 pounds of seperation between those divisions.
In theory, Usman has the skillset to win this fight; he offers comparable output and efficiency at distance (+0.5 to +0.4 strike differential per minute) and rates as the superior offensive wrestler (landed four 13 takedowns, for 12:57 control time against Buckley), and Du Plessis showed an inability to scramble up from his back against Chimaev.
Still, I do expect the 39-year-old Usman to struggle with DDP's physicality, strength, and power, and even if he does land takedowns – or successfully implements some cage pushing – I'd expect Du Plessis to be able to work out of and escape from those positions, unlike the Chimaev fight. Usman isn't a submission threat – he prioritizes control (91%), which allows Dricus to be a bit more reckless with his positioning when escaping from bottom, which he wasn't able to do against Khamzat.
It's also a different wrestling and grappling matchup, stylistically. Khamzat is younger (with healthy knees) and can chain wrestle and explode into double leg takedowns, transition to the back, or complete mat returns if his opponent tries to stand, while constantly threatening his opponent's neck; Usman is more reliant on cage wrestling, body locks, and positional control – whether on the mat or up against the cage.
Usman may have the superior gas tank and could offer the superior optics down the stretch in a technical fight; DDP does well to fight through exhaustion as his fights extend, but he also doesn't present the best body language for the cageside judges when scoring his bouts. Usman has as much championship round experience as anyone on the roster.
However, Du Plessis has also repeatedly outperformed technical expectations and beaten the eye test. His striking isn't especially clean technically, but he's extremely difficult to prepare for because of his rhythm, pressure and willingness to throw from unusual positions. He's one of the rare fighters whose process often looks worse than his results.
Moreover, I strongly prefer DDP's youth and durability to those of an aging opponent who has shown durability concerns late in his career and is coming off a one-year layoff.
I didn't think Usman's wrestling looked particularly technical against Buckley either; Usman has dealt with knee injuries throughout his career (which is why he hasn't grappled as proactively as he has aged), and I don't think DDP – a legitimate former champion with title defenses over other former (and current) champions – has to face anywhere near the peak physical version of The Nigerian Nightmare – the second-best welterweight of all-time.
Du Plessis vs. Usman Prediction, Picks
I projected Dricus Du Plessis as a 67.6% favorite (-209 implied odds) in this fight, and I don't project an edge on either side of the moneyline.
At some books, Usman is as high as +215, but I would want +225 or better to consider backing the underdog.
I also don't project an edge on the total – or the distance props – setting the fight at 47% to go to decision, compared to listed odds around a pick 'em on either the yes or the no.
However, I do project an edge on a few winning method props, giving Usman more decision equity than market (projected +381, listed +600) and Du Plessis more finish equity than market (projected +142, listed +165).
If you're betting the Usman side, consider his odds to win by decision, or his decision-only moneyline (+150 at DraftKings).
If you like the favorite, take Du Plessis by KO/TKO (+230 at FanDuel) to +200, or bet his inside the distance prop to +150. However, I would pass on his finish-only moneyline (-340 at DraftKings).
Sean Zerillo's UFC OKC Best Bets
- Dricus Du Plessis wins by KO/TKO (+230, FanDuel); bet to +200
- Dricus Du Plessis wins Inside the Distance (+165, DraftKings); bet to +150
