Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 14-fight card for International Fight Week, featuring a main event rematch between two of the most popular fighters in MMA history – former two-division UFC champion Conor McGregor and former featherweight and BMF title holder Max Holloway.

Check out my Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway prediction for UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway Odds

McGregor returns to the octagon for the first time since breaking his leg against Dustin Poirier at UFC 264 in July 2021; his last combat sports victory came against Donald Cerrone at UFC 246 (January 2020), and his last win in a truly competitive fight came at UFC 205 (in November 2016) against Eddie Alvarez.

Holloway has lost two of his past three fights – for the featherweight title against Ilia Topuria, and in his first BMF defense against Charles Oliveira – but he's been far more active and successful than his opponent, with a 6-4 record (all losses in title bouts) since McGregor's last appearance.

The pair initially fought in 2013, with McGregor winning by decision in just his second UFC bout, before knocking out his next five opponents to capture UFC gold.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 329 Main Event on Saturday night and use those factors to bet on these welterweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 11:15 p.m. ET (8:15 p.m. PT) on Saturday night.

Here's my McGregor vs. Holloway pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway opened closer to -550 (84.6% implied odds) in this matchup, with Conor McGregor closer to +420 (19.2% implied odds), but the moneyline has crashed more than 10% toward the underdog side; McGregor currently sits closer to +195 (33.9% implied odds) as of writing.

Conor always attracts a preponderance of public betting volume, and it's no surprise to see action pour in on his side, or for the market to tip in his direction; he opened as a +1100 underdog against Floyd Mayweather for their 2017 boxing match but shrunk down to +285 by the opening bell; books were happy to build up seven-figure liability on a Mayweather loss, in a fight that attracted twice as much handle as Mayweather's 2015 superfight with Manny Pacquiao.

For reference, Mayweather closed roughly the same price against Canelo Alvarez as he did against McGregor, and backing Floyd near his closing line against Conor is considered one of the greatest betting opportunities since the turn of the century.

Still, McGregor has a realistic chance of winning any MMA bout, despite all of the factors working against him in this spot.

He's the bigger man than Holloway (5" reach advantage) and likely carries more power, particularly since he has spent the past few years properly bulking up for a move to welterweight (after competing against both Nate Diaz and Cerrone at 170 pounds). In contrast, Holloway built his current frame for the lightweight division.

Still, it's worth noting that McGregor's dynamic power has never really been on full display (apart from the Alvarez win) since he moved up from 145 pounds. In contrast, Holloway has clearly added more pop to his punches since lessening his weight cut.

However, we've seen Holloway's once-legendary durability start to fade after walking through a ton of damage throughout his career.

Holloway hadn't been dropped in the UFC until his brutal knockout loss at the hands of Ilia Topuria, and he was subsequently knocked down by Dustin Poirier in their BMF title bout, before getting dominated on the mat by Charles Oliveira; I suspect his chin has declined, and the speed and athleticism have started to slip in concert with it, as he's facing bigger and, stronger opponents than he saw at featherweight.

Holloway offers record-setting output at distance – outlanding opponents by roughly the same margin per minute at distance, but over a much more statistically significant data sample – and would prove to be the far more voluminous striker than McGregor in an extended fight.

Despite potentially reduced durability, Max remains the safer bet to go the 25-minute distance if needed; McGregor's substantial leg injury (multiple surgeries) and his tendency to slow in elongated fights as he's aged (without championship-round experience since 2018) present major concerns if you're backing the underdog on the moneyline.

McGregor is theoretically the superior grappler, and in the midst of Oliveira's dominant showing on the mat against Max, Conor's odds to land one takedown (+300) are certainly appealing, but Holloway has good first-layer takedown defense (80%; denied 8 of 13 against Oliveira) and I don't see McGregor making that a part of his game plan – as it would likely tire him out more quickly – unless he's compromised and shooting reactively.

There are a lot of questions for McGregor to answer both physically and mentally after rehabbing a career-threatening and almost certainly altering injury amid a lengthy and tumultuous layoff that featured multiple legal issues – both civilly and criminally – with more time spent unsuccessfully defending himself in the courtroom and campaigning for office rather than refining his martial arts skillset.

McGregor's career peaked in 2015, when he flatlined Jose Aldo in 13 seconds, in a clip that will live in my mind forever:

Precision beats power. Timing beats speed.

But each time he tapped – against Nate Diaz, and then Khabib Nurmagomedov – he lost a little bit of his aura, and his last big combat sports win was a decade ago.

McGregor was an international sensation and an all-time notable athlete – the closest thing MMA has had to Mike Tyson – both inside and outside of the cage – and maybe he has one more highlight in him.

Still, in other ways, despite the three-year age gap between this pair, given Conor's injury and inactivity, this feels closer to a 58-year-old Mike Tyson fighting a 28-year-old Jake Paul (being VERY kind to Paul, and VERY cruel towards Max Holloway), which closed in a similarly actionable price range (Paul -230, Tyson +180) as this fight.

McGregor vs. Holloway Prediction, Picks

I projected Max Holloway north of 70% in this rematch (71.4%, -252 implied; but that's factoring in a lot of old McGregor data and I could realistically make it closer to -400) and would bet his moneyline up to around -250.

However, I would wait until Saturday, closer to fight time, to place my wager; the line has already moved aggressively toward McGregor, and you are more likely to get the same price or better as more public action comes in on the Irishman.

It's largely irrelevant now, but the moneyline was virtually flipped when they fought in 2013 (McGregor -245, Holloway +225).

In addition to, or as an alternative to, Holloway's moneyline, I also show a small edge on his inside-the-distance prop (projected -142, listed -135).

I don't project an edge on the total or the distance prop; however, I would consider Fight Doesn't Start Round 4 (-140 at BetRivers) given McGregor's early win condition and his injury and cardio concerns.

Sean Zerillo's UFC 329 Best Bets

• Max Holloway (bet to -250; wait for best price closer to fight time)
• Max Holloway wins Inside the Distance (bet to -140; wait for best price closer to fight time)
• Fight Doesn't Start Round 4 (-140, BetRivers)
• Max Holloway Live after Round 1

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