Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images. Pictured: Nikita Krylov
Read our UFC 329 predictions for this live event on Saturday from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. As is the new normal, the prelims kick off at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with a 9:00 p.m. main card.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 14-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
Nikita Krylov is my largest projected moneyline edge on Saturday's card, as I project him north of 55%, when he's sitting at plus money (albeit down from +180) against Robert Whittaker.
I'm perplexed to see Whittaker – a small middleweight – move up to Light Heavyweight to face the much larger Nikita Krylov (3" taller, 4" reach advantage), particularly after struggling with the physicality of larger middleweights like Khamzat Chimaev, Dricus Du Plessis, and Reinier de Ridder/
Whittaker should be the much faster man, and neither he nor Krylov are particularly durable at this stage of their respective careers, but the moment the momentum tilts towards Krylov in this Fight, I would expect him to pick up steam; Whittaker has generally performed well in those losses, up until the moment he faced resistance and began to feel the power advantage for his opponents.
Bet Krylov to -115, play the Fight to end inside the distance up to -165, and consider adding Krylov by KO/TKO (to +275) or inside the distance (projected +192; listed +250; bet to +210).
The 20-pound jump from middleweight to light heavyweight is much more drastic than the 10-pound jump from bantamweight to lightweight or the 15-pound jump from welterweight to middleweight, and Whittaker already seemed increasingly undersized at 185 pounds.
One of my favorite markets to bet lately has been fighters' takedown props. While the UFC's inconsistent interpretation of what counts as a takedown is occasionally frustrating, there are enough moving parts to find clear edges.
One of those edges is taking unders in fights not projected to last very long. As with all "player prop" bets, there's probably a slight market bias toward the over in general — people prefer betting on things to happen rather than on things not to happen. However, unlike team sports, an MMA fight can take as little as a few seconds, making it much harder for overs to hit.
A clear example of that is the UFC 329 main card opener between King Green and Terrance McKinney. The fight is -250 to end in the very first round, and McKinney hasn't seen a second frame in his last seven fights.
He averages what seems like a very high 3.31 takedowns per 15 minutes, but given the brief duration of most of his contests (2:36 average fight time), he often doesn't actually land a takedown. However, my guess is that sportsbooks line these props based on the per-15-minute number, which is misleading here. He's secured just one in his last seven fights, and only five of his 13 UFC fights in total have seen him pick one up.
Plus, the matchup doesn't do him any favors here, as King Green has 72% takedown defense and has been taken down by just one of the 11 opponents he's faced since Islam Makhachev.
I'd make McKinney a moderate favorite to not get a takedown here, and we're getting +150 odds — making it my favorite bet of the night.
Pick: McKinney Under 0.5 Takedowns +150 (DraftKings)
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About the Author
Billy Ward has been passionate about fantasy sports since the 1990s and pursued a career as an MMA fighter, turning pro at 21 before returning to college to finish his degree. He has notable achievements in fantasy sports and DFS, including qualifying for the DraftKings UFC DFS world championship and five-figure wins in NFL DFS and best ball. Now a member of the Action Network’s predictive analytics team, Billy specializes in NFL, MLB, and combat sports, managing DFS player projection models and contributing to podcasts and live betting shows.
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