Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC OKC (Saturday, July 18)

Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan Odds

Check out the Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan prediction for UFC OKC on Saturday, July 18, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

Throughout his three-year UFC career, Christian Leroy Duncan has felt like a fighter consistently on the verge of a breakthrough, but not quite able to maintain momentum long enough to force his name into a true contender discussion. Now, he comes into Saturday on a four-fight winning streak — the longest of his UFC tenure — with a chance to defeat a ranked opponent for the first time.

That opponent is Jared Cannonier, a former title challenger who seems to be ageless, continuing to hang tough against the sport's best well into his 40s. We haven't seen him since last summer, though, so there's always a chance that the age curve has caught up to him since we've seen him in the cage.

Will this be a coming-out party for "CLD," or can Cannonier turn back the clock one more time and keep another fighter out of the top ten? We'll find out Saturday.

Tale of the Tape

Christian Leroy Duncan is 7-2 in the UFC, with his two losses coming in very different ways.

The first of those came in a fight against Armen Petrosyan, a former high-level kickboxer who outstruck Duncan on the feet en route to a unanimous decision, in a fight that played out almost exactly as I expected.

Cannonier is unlikely to be able to walk that path. While he's a strong striker in his own right, he's less "slick kickboxer" and more "tough as nails brawler" who wins standup exchanges based on pressure and power threat than slick technique — though he shares a particular attribute with Petrosyan that could come into play, which we'll get to later.

It's also worth noting that Duncan has made huge strides since that fight, which came fairly early in his professional career, particularly in terms of his cardio. He's had two decision wins since then in which his significant strike output increased in the later rounds, which was one of my biggest criticisms of his game coming into the Petrosyan loss.

The other loss for Duncan came against Gregory "Robocop" Rodrigues, who dominated him on the ground. Rodrigues landed four takedowns and 8:20 of control time in that 15-minute fight, which obviously limited the danger of Duncan's striking significantly.

That's probably the path Cannonier should try to walk in this one. Duncan is extremely explosive, with five of his UFC wins coming via knockout, but has continued to struggle when forced to grapple. He's been taken down in four of his last five fights (including against Robocop), though only one of those opponents (Roman Dolidze) was able to hold him down for more than about half of a round, with Duncan going on to win a 29-28 decision.

While Cannonier is known for his durability/recoverability, at 42, he comes in with three knockdowns suffered and a ground-and-pound TKO loss in his last four fights. At some point, that chin is going to go, and he'll stop being able to bounce back when getting hurt.

Cannonier needed every bit of that toughness in his win against Gregory Rodrigues, coming back from multiple knockdowns in order to find a fourth-round KO of his own. Cannonier also mixed in his grappling in that fight, landing a crucial takedown that gave him an opportunity to recover from one of those knockdowns.

On the feet, Cannonier could very well win minutes here. Both men switch stances often, though Cannonier tends to pick a stance for extended periods, while Duncan is lighter on his feet and flows stances smoothly. Duncan also often fights moving backwards as he tries to utilize his 79" range, while Cannonier is at his best while pressuring forward. Not only does that allow Cannonier to land more total volume, it also looks better to the judges in close rounds.

The other edge for Cannonier — and the one that Petrosyan used effectively — is his use of leg kicks. Duncan stands with an extremely wide and bladed stance, which makes it difficult to defend leg kicks. Petrosyan landed 37 of them over 15 minutes, while Cannonier went 19-of-21 against Gregory Rodrigues and was even able to land six on the notoriously-elusive Michael Page in his last fight. If Cannonier can wear down the front leg(s) of Duncan early, it could pay dividends late in the fight.

The problem for him is that CLD will almost certainly have the bigger moments. On top of his power, he absorbs just 2.59 significant strikes per minute and has never been knocked down, so everything points to Duncan having the ability to change this fight in a single moment. Plus, Cannonier isn't a dedicated grappler like Rodrigues, who is likely to dominate the fight on the canvas, though I'd wager (and will wager) that he lands one or two to break up the action and potentially steal rounds.

Cannonier vs. Duncan Pick, Prediction

It seems that the market largely still believes in the chin of Cannonier, with the over/under 2.5 rounds in this fight favored at -160 to the over. That feels important, since a short fight almost certainly benefits Duncan.

I'm banking on the veteran Cannonier to steal at least a round here (while surviving to the final bell) and taking his +3.5 point spread at +110 odds. Between his leg kicks and grappling threat, he should be able to secure one of the latter two rounds should he make it that far.

Additionally, I'm interested in betting on Cannonier takedown props, though that market isn't up at the time of writing. I'll update this piece of they show up at a playable range, which for me would be over 1.5 at plus money or over 0.5 inside of -150.

Billy's Picks: Jared Cannonier +3.5 Points +110 | Takedown Overs

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