Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista Odds
| Sandhagen Odds | -130 |
| Bautista Odds | +110 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-245/+185) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 329 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 329 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista prediction for UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Sandhagen vs. Bautista pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Sandhagen | Bautista | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-6 | 17-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:43 | 10:06 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 69" |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Date of birth | 4/20/1992 | 7/1/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.86 | 5.30 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.47 | 3.98 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.15 | 1.91 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 38% |
| TD Def | 56% | 55% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.8 |
Sandhagen vs Bautista Pick, Prediction
This pair fought in 2019, with Sandhagen winning by Round 1 armbar (as a -500 favorite, with Bautista as a +435 underdog). Still, as the current line reflects, Bautista has improved drastically since that first matchup.
I'd expect Bautista to proactively wrestle, as Sandhagen's defeats have primarily come while getting outgrappled, more recently against Merab Dvalishvili (20 takedowns on 37 attempts, 10:02 control time) and Umar Nurmagomedov (5 of 13 takedowns, 5:03 control time).
Sandhagen is an excellent scrambler, but because of his height, opponents can get in on his legs and ground him. Bautista showed dominant offensive jiu-jitsu against Vinicius Oliveira, progressing to a rear-naked choke. Surely, Bautista has seen tape of Aljamain Sterling backpacking and finishing Sandhagen with the same technique.
Sandhagen has the better losses – Sterling, Dvalishvili, Nurmagomedov, Petr Yan, and TJ Dillashaw are five of the greatest ever in this weight class – and he's the more durable man; Bautista's knockout loss to Trevin Jones remains a red flag on his resume, but Sandhagen was also nearly knocked out standing in his title bout against Merab.
I make Mario a slight favorite, and would take his moneyline to +105; however, I don't project any actionable edges in the total, distance, or method markets, and I would much rather have Bautista's moneyline than Over 1.5 takedowns at -160.
Zerillo's Pick: Mario Bautista (+125, 0.25u), BetMGM; bet to +105
