UFC 329 was an epic fight card that ended with a whimper, but fortunately, the UFC is right back at it this week. A pair of former champions meet in the main event of UFC Oklahoma City, with Kamaru Usman taking on Dricus du Plessis to finish off the 11-fight (for now) card.
The prelims go down at 5:00 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma, with the entire event airing on Paramount+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 329 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC OKC Predictions & Luck Ratings
Dricus Du Plessis (-240) vs. Kamaru Usman (+200)
I described both main event fighters in the intro as former champions, which is true, but it's important to note that Kamaru Usman was champion in a lighter weight class than he'll be competing in this weekend.
Usman has made clear his desire to fight for a title again, and between a crowded welterweight division and the fact that he holds a win over the current middleweight champion, he correctly assessed that his path is much easier at 185 lbs. Of course, he still needs to win a fight at his new weight class, which could be easier said than done against Dricus Du Plessis, a much larger and younger man. "DDP" also has a pair of wins over Strickland and could earn a title shot himself with a win this week.
Usman, one of the longest-reigning champions in UFC history, is certainly the more skilled man. He's also 39 years old, has dealt with fairly significant knee injuries, and was able to dominate welterweight for a long time due to his size and athleticism advantage, neither of which will be present here. He was able to turn back the clock against Joaquin Buckley (himself a former middleweight) in his last fight, which gives some room for optimism, but "Stillknocks" is the rightful favorite.
I'll be potentially interested in Usman's point spread here depending on the odds, as he's a tough man to dominate, with two of his three UFC losses coming via majority decision. The moneyline is about right in my eyes, though, so I'm passing for now.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Tommy McMillen (-120) vs. Alberto Montes (+100)
Professional Sean O'Malley impersonator/MMA fighter Tommy McMillen makes his sophomore UFC outing on the Oklahoma City main card, where he takes on fellow Contender Series veteran/1-0 UFC fighter Alberto Montes in a featherweight bout.
This is a tougher test than I thought McMillen would get based on his being fed Manolo Zechini in his UFC debut, as Montes is a solid veteran with finishes in both his Contender Series fight and UFC debut.
However, this is an awful stylistic matchup for Montes. McMillen is a pressure fighter who blitzes forward with volume, exactly the striking style that is kryptonite for traditional martial arts-style fighters like Montes. I mentioned his parents both being Taekwondo black belts in my write up of him on the Contender Series, and how that influence is notable when watching him fight.
Usually, Montes uses his grappling to force opponents to back off when they rush forward, but that might not be an option against a three-time state champion wrestler in McMillen. Montes has won four straight fights with front choke variations, but those largely rely on the opponent to shoot for a takedown, which McMillen is unlikely to do unless he's losing exchanges on the feet.
Plus, the line has shifted slightly towards McMillen despite a majority of Tapology predictions on Montes. While my heart wants Montes to get the win, my head is telling me McMillen should be a considerable favorite.
The best line is -110 at Caesars, and I suspect they'll begin to shift towards McMillen during the week as most other books have.
Verdict: McMillen Undervalued
Jose Delgado (-118) vs. Austin Bashi (-102)
Another highly-touted prospect who is being given a much tougher opponent than I would've guessed is Michigan's own Austin Bashi. Among other credentials, Bashi is a former IBJJF world champion at Brown Belt and an all-state high school wrestler. His UFC debut came against Christian Rodriguez, with the noted prospect killer handing him a unanimous decision loss.
After getting a gimme fight against John Yannis, Bashi is now facing Jose Delgado, an 11-2 pro who is 3-1 in the UFC. However, Delgado's most recent win was a split decision against Andre Fili, with Fili taking him down four times in that matchup. Delgado has surrendered eight takedowns in four UFC fights with just a 50% defense rate, and Bashi is easily a better grappler than any of his past opponents.
The combination of a favorite coming off a split decision win while taking on a tough stylistic opponent, plus perhaps a little bit of hometown bias, has me very excited to bet Bashi. I'm just playing it for half of a unit, though, as I want to save some ammo for his submission prop later in the week. That's overwhelmingly his likeliest win condition here, so I want to be on that side at plus-money as well.
Verdict: Bashi Undervalued
Alvin Hines (-140) vs. RJ Harris (+120)
Consider this a "bonus pick" as lines aren't yet available domestically for the heavyweight bout between Alvin "Goozie" Hines and RJ Harris.
Hines was a fun story when he made his short-notice UFC debut at UFC 317, as a mid-30s union heavy equipment engineer nicknamed "Goozie" is hard not to root for. He unsurprisingly was no match for Jhonata Diniz, then tested positive for a bunch of steroids that he admitted to being on before signing with the UFC.
He's seven years older than his undefeated opponent, RJ Harris, who fought some tough competition for LFA before his UFC signing. Harris is also much bigger with a six-inch reach edge, and with three submission victories to his name, simply taking him down might not be an easy path to success. Plus, it remains to be seen how much of Hines' regional success he'll be able to replicate with (presumably) a less powerful supplement routine coming into this fight.
If Harris is still an underdog when this line goes up domestically, I'll be all over it, so keep an eye out for opportunities over the next day or two.
Verdict: Harris Undervalued
