USA TODAY via Imagn Content Services, LLC. Pictured: Conor McGregor
Check out my UFC 329 predictions for every fight on tonight's pay-per-view at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Below, I break down the latest UFC 329 odds and predict each bout on today's PPV fight card with updated odds. You can also find my prop and finish projections for each Fight.
Let's get into my UFC 329 picks for Saturday, July 11.
UFC 329 Predictions
After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value, and after looking at the UFC 329 odds, today's event is no exception.
So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 329 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.
In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter's likelihood of winning by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance and for each fighter to win inside the distance.
Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.
I don't project an edge on the moneyline or the total for the opening bout on Saturday's card; however, I do give Costa more knockout equity than the market and think there is value in that prop as opposed to his submission or overall inside-the-distance odds (projected +118, listed +110).
Costa is a well-rounded fighter, but he's both the more powerful athlete and the better striker in this fight, whereas Durden likely has the wrestling advantage and is crafty at finding submissions in scrambles.
Costa, who was finished in the third round of a short-notice UFC debut against Amir Albazi (and again in a fight against Aiden Coria), is replacing Ode Osbourne on short notice here, and Durden may have the better gas tank to begin with.
So, I'd rather target Costa to finish than his moneyline, and thankfully the projected edge points to the knockout prop as the best angle.
Consider Durden live after five minutes, but from a pre-fight perspective, I either want Costa by KO/TKO (+220; bet to +175) or Costa in Rounds 1-2 (+155)
Bets
Alessandro Costa wins by TKO/KO (+220, 0.25u), FanDuel; bet to +175
Zachary Reese is the first of four projected underdog moneyline edges I show for UFC 329; he's a defensive liability (43% striking defense) and Ryan Gandra is a powerful striker, but I favor Reese's grappling and prefer his potential minute-winning in an extended fight, coming off a split decision loss against Michel Pereira.
The edge on the distance prop, or the Over 1.5 Rounds (+158), correlates to Reese withstanding early damage against Gandra, who has finished six of his nine wins in Round 1.
Reese has plenty of quick finishes himself (7 of 10 pro wins), but I prefer his sustainability if this contest extends and turns sloppy.
I make Reese a slight favorite and would take him at any plus-money price.
Additionally, bet Fight Starts Round 2 to -125, the Over 1.5 Rounds to +150, or take the distance or decision prop to +350.
Lastly, consider betting either Gandra by Decision to +1000, or Reese by Decision to +450, depending upon which side of the fight you prefer.
Bets
Fight Starts Round 2 (-104, 0.25u), BetRivers; bet to -125
Zachary Reese (+122, 0.25u), Polymarket; bet to +100
John Garza is an excellent boxer, stepping up on short notice for his UFC debut in place of Ethyn Ewing. Still, he'll need to immediately prove his counter-grappling against unbeaten Farid Basharat (averages 3.3 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, 44% accuracy) if he wants to pull the upset.
Basharat isn't the most exciting fighter (one finish in seven UFC bouts), and he often fails to comfortably separate himself from opponents due to his lack of significant power. Moreover, despite his unbeaten record, this is the last fight on his UFC contract, and the promotion recently released his older brother, Javid.
As a result, while I do project an edge on Basharat to win by Decision (projected -108, listed +130), and would consider that prop at any plus money price, I do think he will be more aggressive in pursuit of a finish (likely via submission) with his roster spot on the line.
As a result, I have tepid feelings about locking in that prop, but it's the only angle showing actionable value at the time of publication.
Bets
Farid Basharat Over 2.5 Takedowns (+110, 0.1u), Caesars; bet to -105
Farid Basharat wins by Decision (+140, 0.1u), HardRockBet; bet to +100
While Cesar Almeida is the more polished kickboxer than Damian Pinas, with three fights (all decisions) against Alex "Poatan" Pereira, Pinas is the bigger (5" reach advantage) and better athlete, and also 14 years his junior.
When there is at least a decade between MMA opponents, the younger fighter has won 70.9% of the time at average odds closer to 56% implied – nearly 15% above expectation. If you filter for 12-year gaps, the win% grows to 73.7%, compared to average implied odds of 59.5%.
As a result, despite showing a projected edge on the underdog, Almeida, I'm inclined to pass from a pre-fight perspective and wait to bet him live after Round 1; Pinas has finished all of his opponents within nine minutes – including seven of nine in Round 1 – and he likely becomes less powerful as his fights extend.
Almeida has not been finished professionally – though Abdul Razak Alhassan dropped him – and I'd expect him to fight cautiously early and draw out large movements from his opponent early, before upping his own offense in Round 2.
Still, I tend to think that Pinas has the special "death touch" type of power that seemingly a handful of fighters in the sport possess at any moment, and until he faces a durable grappler, his green skillset may not get fully exposed.
His athletic advantages should look particularly exaggerated against a 38-year-old opponent who fights with his hands low, and if Pinas wins, he likely does so quickly and violently.
That said, if Almeida eats a big shot early and survives, and/or is relatively undamaged after five minutes, I'd certainly look to take some 'dog money, and hopefully at an improved price from the pre-fight line.
I don't show an edge on the total or the distance props. While I show slight edges on either Pinas by Decision or Almeida by KO/TKO, I don't like the read on either, and neither is far enough off the market to be actionable.
The line on this fight has flipped several times after Cortez opened as a near -170 favorite. You can now get her at plus-money, and I would take her moneyline to -105.
This is a relatively binary fight between the powerful kickboxer, Wang Cong, and the wrestler, Cortez, and I favor Tracy to land takedowns – and either maintain position or find a submission – against a fighter who has shown a concerning skill set when put on the mat.
Cortez has taken down all but one of her UFC opponents (Jasmine Jasudavicius, who she outstruck for a decision win), and landed multiple takedowns in seven of her nine fights, and Cong – who only transitioned to MMA in 2022 – ranks among the least experienced defensive grapplers relative to her past opponents.
In addition to her moneyline, I like Cortez Over 1.5 takedowns (-150) and would also sprinkle her submission prop (projected +843, listed +1300) down to +900; she has shown excellent durability and improved striking and should be far more competitive on the feet than Cong is on the ground.
Bets
Tracy Cortez (+108, 0.35u), Polymarket; bet to -105
Tracy Cortez wins by Submission (+1300, 0.05u), FanDuel; bet to +1000
Tracy Cortez Over 1.5 Takedowns (-150, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to -185)
The moneyline odds for Luke Riley have plummeted from -275 to -215 after weigh-ins, and I now project an edge on the unbeaten Liverpool native. Still, I'm cautious given the aggressive market movement.
Kai Kamaka is in his second UFC stint (2-2-1; 1-1 in split decisions), and has proven himself a durable striker with good takedown defense, but he doesn't pack a ton of power and often fails to separate from opponents (19 of 26 fights have gone to decision, including six split decisions).
Still, fighting to the level of your competition is a good quality to have as an underdog rather than as the favorite.
Riley is younger, taller, and faster than Kamaka, but he can also be a slow starter who concedes Round 1 while making his reads, before upping his tempo as his fights extend.
Kamaka needs to make the fight dirty, and mix in wrestling and clinch exchanges to keep things close, rather than letting Riley get into a flow state at distance.
If Riley cashes moneyline tickets, he likely finds a finish, and I do show an edge on his knockout prop (projected +204, listed +240; bet to +225) or his inside the distance prop (projected +162, listed +200; bet to +180), but given how far the moneyline has dropped relative to my projection, that is likely the larger edge at this point.
Lastly, I show a slight edge on the fight to end inside the distance (projected +122, listed +135), which you can consider alongside Riley's moneyline, rather than doubling down on his finish props.
Wait until Saturday to fire on the side for this matchup, to see if the line continues to drop, and look for a live entry on Riley after a potentially tepid start.
Bets
Luke Riley (0.25u, bet to -260); wait until closer to fight time
You may be surprised to see such a steep price tag next to the name of Adrian Yanez, who is 1-3-1 in his past four fights, going against former Bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt.
Still, Garbrandt was fortunate to win his last Fight (his opponent, whom I bet on, was docked two points for multiple illegal groin strikes in Round 3). At the same time, Yanez has been unfortunate on the scorecards (a split loss and a majority draw) while looking like an improved fighter in his recent contests.
Moreover, Garbrandt has not been reacting well to damaging strikes for several years now, and though he has avoided a knockout loss since 2021, the heavy-handed Yanez is the best striker that Cody has faced since that KO loss to Kai Kara-France:
I generally align with the market on this fight, but I do show a small edge on Yanez to win inside the distance (projected -110, listed -105), and given my overall read on the fight, it's a prop I'd be willing to bet a bit past my projection.
Bets
Adrian Yanez wins Inside the Distance (-105, 0.25u), BetRivers; bet to -120
Gable Steveson will debut as one of, if not the biggest moneyline favorite in UFC history, against "The Snack Panther" Elisha Ellison.
Steveson – a former Olympic Gold Medalist and two-time Division-I national champion in wrestling- has long been considered (alongside Bo Nickal) the best American MMA prospect, and he'll make his octagon debut after just three fights and less than six combined minutes of cage time, as the UFC is desperate for heavyweight talent.
Relative to the market, I do show an edge on Steveson by KO/TKO (projected -376, listed -250) or would consider him by Round 1 KO/TKO (-150).
Alternatively, while I do project an edge on the fight to end inside the distance, consider Under 0.5 Rounds (+126) or a Same-Game Parlay (SGP) with Steveson and Under 0.5 Rounds or Steveson by KO/TKO and Under 0.5 Rounds.
Bets
SGP: Gable Steveson & Under 0.5 Rounds (+148, 0.15u), FanDuel; bet to +125
Nikita Krylov is my largest projected moneyline edge on Saturday's card, as I project him north of 55%, when he's sitting at plus-money (albeit down from +180) against Robert Whittaker.
I'm perplexed to see Whittaker – a small middleweight – move up to Light Heavyweight to face the much larger Nikita Krylov (3" taller, 4" reach advantage), particularly after struggling with the physicality of larger middleweights like Khamzat Chimaev, Dricus Du Plessis, and Reinier de Ridder/
Whittaker should be the much faster man, and neither he nor Krylov are particularly durable at this stage of their respective careers, but the moment the momentum tilts towards Krylov in this fight, I would expect him to pick up steam.
Whittaker has generally performed well in those losses, up until the moment he faced resistance and began to feel the power advantage for his opponents.
Bet Krylov to -115, and play the fight to end inside the distance, up to -165, and consider adding Krylov by KO/TKO (to +275) or inside the distance (projected +192; listed +250, bet to +210).
The 20-pound jump from middleweight to light heavyweight is a lot more drastic than the 10-pound jumps from bantamweight to lightweight, or the 15-pound jump from welterweight to middleweight, and Whittaker already seemed increasingly undersized at 185 pounds.
Bets
Nikita Krylov (+110, 0.5u), Polymarket; bet to -115
Under 2.5 Rounds (-120, 0.25u), BetMGM; bet to -135
I project King (formerly Bobby) Green as a favorite in this matchup even though he will likely be in severe danger of getting finished early; if fights were 90 seconds long, Terrance McKinney might be the lightweight champion, but his cardio – and effectiveness – seemingly evaporates after three explosive minutes; McKinney is the definition of a glass cannon.
McKinney may try to grapple early in this fight. He is as good a technical wrestler as he is powerful at striking, and Green has shown some vulnerabilities in his defensive grappling when opponents aggressively hunt submissions.
Moreover, Green's durability has declined in his late thirties – I thought he was "done" after a brutal (triple) knockout loss to Jalin Turner in 2023. Then again, when he ate a spinning wheel kick against Mauricio Ruffy in 2025, he responded with three consecutive victories, including a vintage, sustained domination over a rising prospect and larger man in Daniel Zellhuber.
McKinney has the power to put any fighter down, and Green likely gets hit hard early, but if he survives that first or second explosion, I would be ready to fire live; you usually don't get until the end of the first round before the live line starts to move back against McKinney after a fast start.
I make Green a slight favorite and would take him pre-fight at +105 or better, but if you're active in the live market, you'll likely get a better price on Green during or after Round 1, unless McKinney finishes him first.
I wouldn't mind having Green pre-fight, as McKinney is almost equally chinny, and nearly as likely as Green to succumb to a quick finish, with diminishing win probability for every second that ticks off the clock, in contrast to the Pinas-Almeida fight, with a bigger age gap and more uncertainty about Pinas' cardio and durability in extended contests (and where I'd rather wait to speculate live).
I do think there's too much submission equity baked into this line as well – I project an edge on either fighter to win by KO/TKO, and would make the KO/TKO ends -300, compared to listed odds of -175.
Pair Green's moneyline with the ends KO prop, or wait for a live entry on the Green side.
Bets
Fight Ends by KO/TKO (-175, 0.25u), BetRivers; bet to -275
I view Lone'er Kavanagh as a future title contender, and even if I'm not betting on those fighters, I generally have a policy about betting against them – unless special circumstances arise – on their potential title run.
As a result, while I do show slight value on Brandon Royval's moneyline (projected +182, listed +194) or his odds to win by decision (projected +363, listed +440) depending upon the book – and would recommend those if you are looking for a bet on this Fight – there isn't enough value there for me to pull the trigger, personally.
Both the moneyline and totals are about right; Kavanagh has more power, but Royval pushes a harder pace, and often makes it difficult to judge rounds in his fights; still, I do think that style works better in five-round fights as opposed to three, since that activity can wear his opponents down and volume tends to outweigh lesser differences in power as both fighters tire in the championship rounds.
Kavanagh is the younger man, and showed he could handle altitude over five rounds in Mexico City, on short notice. While I do have concerns about his chin – particularly in a potential firefight with Joshua Van or Manel Kape – Royval's durability also seems to be going. He's not necessarily the type of fighter who one-punches opponents (although I didn't think Charles Johnson was until he did it to both Joshua Van and Kavanagh, either).
Apart from a small bet on Royval's significant strike prop, I'm passing on this fight, but Royval should be much more competitive than this price point suggests, unless he gets finished.
Bets
Brandon Royval, Over 56.5 Significant Strikes (-115, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to -125
This pair fought in 2019, with Sandhagen winning by Round 1 armbar (as a -500 favorite, with Bautista as a +435 underdog). Still, as the current line reflects, Bautista has improved drastically since that first matchup.
I'd expect Bautista to proactively wrestle, as Sandhagen's defeats have primarily come while getting outgrappled, more recently against Merab Dvalishvili (20 takedowns on 37 attempts, 10:02 control time) and Umar Nurmagomedov (5 of 13 takedowns, 5:03 control time).
Sandhagen is an excellent scrambler, but because of his height, opponents can get in on his legs and ground him. Bautista showed dominant offensive jiu-jitsu against Vinicius Oliveira, progressing to a rear-naked choke. Surely, Bautista has seen tape of Aljamain Sterling backpacking and finishing Sandhagen with the same technique.
Sandhagen has the better losses – Sterling, Dvalishvili, Nurmagomedov, Petr Yan, and TJ Dillashaw are five of the greatest ever in this weight class – and he's the more durable man; Bautista's knockout loss to Trevin Jones remains a red flag on his resume, but Sandhagen was also nearly knocked out standing in his title bout against Merab.
I make Mario a slight favorite, and would take his moneyline to +105; however, I don't project any actionable edges in the total, distance, or method markets, and I would much rather have Bautista's moneyline than Over 1.5 takedowns at -160.
Like Conor McGregor, Paddy Pimblett is a fan favorite who often attracts a majority of public betting attention, and I almost always find my model backing his opponent regardless of price range (underdog, favorite, or pick'em). The same principle applies to other fan favorites, like Alex Pereira; the model is meant to be contrarian.
Saint-Denis ("BSD") opened closer to -200 for this fight, with Pimblett around +170, and the line has moved roughly 5% towards the underdog, but I do favor the Frenchman more than the market at this point and would take his moneyline up to -155.
Although his striking has improved, Paddy's defense (42%) remains porous, on par with BSD's, but it's his takedown defense (44%) and his tendency to pull a guillotine and end up on his back that are of greatest concern in this fight.
Saint-Denis has a vicious top game and, for as good of a grappler as Paddy is, I don't think he'll be as quick or as strong in scrambles.
The one edge Paddy may have is cardio, and the ability to win late minutes with sustained volume as BSD potentially fades; the Frenchman often starts hot before his cardio catches up with him, as his potential repeated exposure to staph infection typically lingers over his fight week discourse (including more suspicion this week).
While Paddy ate the bigger shots against Justin Gaethje, he landed more volume across five rounds, a trait which garners favor with judges in the final round of close contests as he repeatedly lands straight punches. In contrast, BSD occasionally lands increasingly lazier overhands and left body kicks.
Bet BSD to -155, and take the Under 2.5 Rounds (-140) to -150 or the ends inside the distance prop to -210.
Alternatively, or in addition, take Saint-Denis inside the distance (projected +114, listed +130, down to +120).
You can consider waiting until Saturday, closer to fight time, to place either or both of those bets, anticipating further public action driving the Pimblett line downward.
Bets
Benoit Saint-Denis (0.5u, bet to -155); wait until closer to fight time
Benoit Saint-Denis wins Inside the Distance (0.25u, bet to +120); wait until closer to fight time
I projected Max Holloway north of 70% in this rematch (71.4%, -252 implied, but that's factoring in a lot of old McGregor data, and I could realistically make it closer to -400), and would bet his moneyline up to around -250.
However, I would wait until Saturday, closer to fight time, to place my wager; the line has already moved aggressively toward McGregor, and you are likelier to get the same price or better as more public action comes in on the Irishman.
It's largely irrelevant now, but the moneyline was virtually flipped when they fought in 2013 (McGregor -245, Holloway +225).
In addition to, or as an alternative to, Holloway's moneyline, I also show a small edge on his inside-the-distance prop (projected -142, listed -135).
I don't project an edge on the total or the distance prop; however, I would consider Fight Doesn't Start Round 4 (-140 at BetRivers) given McGregor's early win condition and his injury and cardio concerns.
Bets
Max Holloway (0.5, bet to -250); wait until closer to fight time
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Moneyline Bets
Zachary Reese (+122, 0.25u), Polymarket; bet to +100
Tracy Cortez (+108, 0.35u), Polymarket; bet to -105
Luke Riley (0.25u, bet to -260); wait until closer to fight time
Nikita Krylov (+110, 0.5u), Polymarket; bet to -115
Mario Bautista (+125, 0.25u), BetMGM; bet to +105
Benoit Saint-Denis (0.5u, bet to -155); wait until closer to fight time
Max Holloway (0.5, bet to -250); wait until closer to fight time
Prop Bets, Totals, and SGPs
Alessandro Costa wins by TKO/KO (+220, 0.25u), FanDuel; bet to +175
Gandra/Reese, Fight Starts Round 2 (-104, 0.25u), BetRivers; bet to -125
Farid Basharat wins by Decision (+140, 0.1u), HardRockBet; bet to +100
Farid Basharat Over 2.5 Takedowns (+110, 0.1u), Caesars; bet to -105
Tracy Cortez wins by Submission (+1300, 0.05u), FanDuel; bet to +1000
Tracy Cortez Over 1.5 Takedowns (-150, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to -185)
Adrian Yanez wins Inside the Distance (-105, 0.25u), BetRivers; bet to -120
Krylov/Whittaker, Under 2.5 Rounds (-120, 0.25u), BetMGM; bet to -135
Green/McKinney, Fight Ends by KO/TKO (-175, 0.25u), BetRivers; bet to -275
Brandon Royval, Over 56.5 Significant Strikes (-115, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to -125
Benoit Saint-Denis wins Inside the Distance (0.25u, bet to +120); wait until closer to fight time
Parlays
SGP: Gable Steveson & Under 0.5 Rounds (+148, 0.15u), FanDuel; bet to +125
Live Bets
Cesar Almeida Live after Round 1
Luke Riley Live after Round 1
King Green Live during/after Round 1
Max Holloway Live after Round 1
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About the Author
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
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