Benoit Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett Odds
| Saint Denis Odds | -142 |
| Pimblett Odds | +120 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+124/-160) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 329 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 329 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Benoit Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett prediction for UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
There was plenty of (valid) criticism of Pimblett's undefeated UFC record heading into his interim title fight with Justin Gaethje. Not only did he arguably deserve to lose a decision against Jared Gordon, but he had been carefully protected in terms of matchmaking prior to facing "The Highlight." The critics were proven right in a sense with Pimblett suffering his first UFC loss — but the loss has aged well with Gaethje going on to win the undisputed title in dominant fashion in his very next fight.
His UFC 329 co-main event spot against Saint Denis might be the perfect litmus test to decide if Pimblett is a legit contender or merely an over hyped fan-favorite. The Frenchman is 9-3 in the UFC with nine finishes, and got as close to the title as a number-one contender fight against Dustin Poirier.
The crowded UFC lightweight division doesn't have room for both of these fighters in the title conversation, so this is a crucial fight for two fighters in their physical primes. Will Saint Denis pick up a fifth straight win, or can Pimblett bounce back from his first loss in 7+ years? We'll find out on Saturday.
Here's my Saint Denis vs. Pimblett pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Saint Denis | Pimblett | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-3 | 23-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:10 | 10:56 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 73" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/18/1995 | 1/03/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.62 | 5.49 |
| SS Accuracy | 58% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.09 | 3.89 |
| SS Defense | 42% | 42% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.19 | 0.69 |
| TD Acc | 35% | 21% |
| TD Def | 72% | 44% |
| Submission Avg | 1.8 | 1.2 |
My recollection of the Gaethje-Pimblett fight was a relatively dominant performance by the now-champion. However, watching it back this week painted a different picture.
Gaethje was ahead on the scorecards for effectively the entire fight after dropping Pimblett in Round 1, but the Liverpool native was never out of the fight. He outlanded Gaethje in three of the five rounds and was firing back every time he was hurt. Pimblett also suffered an eye poke in the first round that probably didn't help his cause, though it did come after being dropped by Gaethje.
Most of the issues for Pimblett came at close quarters, with Gaethje hurting him numerous times from the clinch and/or near-clinch positions. Pimblett was able to find success at distance, using his awkward striking and length to land plenty of shots on the advancing American.
Offensively, Pimblett utilizes his massive size for the division to bully opponents, while launching unorthodox strikes from all angles. It's not exactly pretty, but it can be effective, especially when he's mixing in elbows and knees. He doesn't have massive power by divisional standards, but he has enough to stop foes in their tracks, which is often enough to get him to grappling range where he can take over.
He's not a great — or even good — wrestler/takedown artist, but he's a monster on the mat when fights get there, with an 11-1 record in fights ending via submission. Just like his striking, he has an unorthodox approach, utilizing submissions from nonstandard positions to surprise opponents, notably while defending a takedown against King Green:
However, the most impressive part of Pimblett's performance against Gaethje wasn't his offense; it was his durability. He made it all 25 minutes with Gaethje despite being dropped twice and absorbing 144 significant strikes. Gaethje finished arguably the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world (at the time), Ilia Topuria, with "just" 91 significant strikes, with Topuria suffering two broken orbital bones and a broken nose in the process.
With that said, "Scousers don't get knocked out" isn't exactly a sound defensive strategy. Pimblett fights with his hands down, is sloppy defensively when moving between phases (distance, clinch, grappling), and rushes headlong into danger when he feels he has a chance to land shots of his own. On the plus side, he proved himself capable of learning — which I intend as more of a compliment than it sounds like — against Gaethje, framing off with his forearms and making a concerted effort to keep the fight at range.
However, that will be a tougher task against Saint Denis. The Frenchman will be the only one of Pimblett's UFC opponents to match his reach outside of a completely washed Tony Ferguson, which will make winning striking exchanges at range a challenge. He's also a former judoka who is extremely comfortable fighting from close range and is willing to pressure forward to get there.
He never stopped pressing forward in his most recent fight, against another long fighter who wanted to strike at range in Dan Hooker. Hooker made some mistakes in the grappling that I don't expect from Pimblett — mainly dropping for guillotines to initiate grappling/defend takedowns, putting "God of War" into the position he wanted. He's also not nearly as durable as Pimblett (at least at this point in his career) and was finished with ground and pound in the second round.
I expect Saint Denis to blitz forward in a similar fashion against Pimblett, as he'll likely be undeterred by any of the strikes coming back at him. The question is how long he'll be able to keep doing that if he's unable to finish Pimblett.
Saint Denis' all-out style makes extended fights hard, and he's still winless in fights that go ten minutes or longer. Given Pimblett's cardio and output over five rounds in his last fight, Saint Denis might have a limited window to win this fight. His cardio has looked somewhat better in recent outings than during his second-round collapse against Dustin Poirier, but he's yet to prove an ability to fight effectively for 15 minutes.
I could also see a scenario where Saint Denis grapples himself into trouble here, especially if he gets overzealous with the ground and pound. Pimblett's rope-a-dope could give him opportunities for some sneaky submissions or a positional reversal.
Saint Denis vs. Pimblett Pick, Prediction
To me, the likeliest outcome here is Saint Denis having a great first round but Pimblett continuing to be unfinishable, with Pimblett taking over down the stretch. Picking a winner thus depends on whether "down the stretch" happens early enough for "The Baddy" to win the second round as well as the third.
I'm not entirely confident in that happening, but given the +310 odds on Pimblett in Round 3 or by Decision at FanDuel, I'm willing to take my chances. I also like Pimblett's +3.5 point spread at DraftKings (-120) but prefer to take the bigger swing.
However, my absolute favorite betting angle from this fight is a live bet on Pimblett. Saint Denis is highly likely to win the first round, inflating the betting odds, at which point Pimblett's moneyline should be a great opportunity. I'll have a small sprinkle pre-fight on the Round 3/decision prop, but save most of my exposure for the live market.
Billy's Picks: Pimblett R3/Decision +310 (FanDuel) | Pimblett Live
