Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown Odds
| Bonfim Odds | -175 |
| Brown Odds | +150 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130/-110) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 111 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 111 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown prediction for UFC Vegas 110on Saturday, November 1, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 12-fight card, featuring an essential bout in the welterweight division between No. 14 contender Gabriel "Marretinha" Bonfim and currently unranked Randy "Rudeboy" Brown.
Both men enter their first career main event or five-round fight. Bonfim is currently riding a three-fight winning streak with a 6-1 promotional record, while Brown has recorded a 14-6 record in the UFC since 2016.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 111 Main Event on Saturday and use those factors to bet on these welterweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 9:15 p.m. ET (6:15 p.m. PT) on Saturday.
Tale of the Tape
| Bonfim | Brown | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-1 | 20-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:58 | 10:29 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/20/1997 | 7/8/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.54 | 4.47 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.53 | 3.26 |
| SS Defense | 63% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.03 | 0.79 |
| TD Acc | 55% | 39% |
| TD Def | 76% | 73% |
| Submission Avg | 1.6 | 0.6 |
Randy Brown is the bigger man in this matchup (2" taller, 6" reach advantage), but Gabriel Bonfim is seven years his junior, and the more explosive athlete, finishing 17 of his 19 career wins (89.5%), compared to 13 of 20 (65%) for Brown.
Bonfim enters off a controversial split-decision win over Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson – 12 of 14 media members and 90% of fans scored the bout for the American. Conversely, Brown lost a competitive split decision two fights back, against Bryan Battle (who missed weight); 58% of fans (but just three of 14 media members) scored the bout for Rudeboy.
Bonfim is the more efficient fighter on paper, outlanding opponents by 1.8 strikes per minute at distance, compared to 1.7 for Brown, while controlling a significantly higher percentage of their respective grappling and clinch time (70% vs. 36%).
Bonfim is also the more proactive wrestler, averaging 3.8 takedowns per five minutes at distance—compared to 1.2 for Brown—while completing those shots more consistently (54% vs. 39% accuracy).
I view Brown as the superior technician, with higher fight IQ and potentially the better gas tank in an extended fight than Bonfim. Still, Brown relies on head movement and footwork rather than maintaining a high guard – increasing his chances of getting clipped in the smaller APEX cage – and he's shown a tendency to get put on his back early against more powerful opponents (Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, Francisco Trinaldo, and Warrley Alves).
I could see him hurting Brown on the feet, hunting for a club and sub, or going to work in the grappling, either looking to lock in a front choke or to take Brown's back and hold a body triangle for extended stretches.
If he's able to deny the grappling and whether the early storm, there should be a path for Brown to rally in the back half of the fight by using his jab, managing distance, and staying composed and consistent against a finish-reliant opponent.
As a result, you could time a live entry on Brown's moneyline, at some point after the five to seven minute mark – regardless of your pre-fight position.
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown Pick, Prediction
I projected Gabriel Bonfim as a 66.8% favorite (-201 implied odds) in this matchup, and I do show an edge on his pre-fight moneyline, up to -184, at a two percent edge compared to my projection.
I expect the fight to end inside the distance around 73% of the time (-275 implied odds), and I don't project an edge concerning the total.
However, I do project a slight edge on Bonfim to win by submission (projected +141, listed +180) or inside the distance (projected -112, listed -105), and I would consider a same-game parlay with Bonfim and either the Under 1.5 Rounds (+290) or Under 2.5 Rounds (+175). You can then potentially trade out of that position with a live entry on Brown, at some point after round 1.
Alternatively, you could take a pre-fight position on Brown and the Over 1.5 Rounds (+210) or Over 2.5 (+260), while waiting for a peak live moneyline price on the underdog.
Sean's Pick: SGP: Gabriel Bonfim & Under 1.5 Rounds (+290 at BallyBet) | SGP: Gabriel Bonfim & Under 2.5 Rounds (+175 at DraftKings) | Randy Brown Live Anytime after Round 1
