Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC Vegas 119 (Saturday June 20)

Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling Odds

Check out the Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling prediction for UFC Freedom 250 on Sunday, June 14 along with my betting preview and breakdown.

The undefeated Navajo Stirling is the next in line of former kickboxers-turned MMA fighters to emerge from New Zealand's City Kickboxing gym. He's hoping to follow in the footsteps of CKG champions Israel Adesanya and Carlos Ulberg, with the benefit of time on his side as he's still just 28 years old. He faces the stiffest test of his career this weekend against Ion Cutelaba, a UFC veteran with a 9-10-1 promotional record but some stylistic advantages that make him a dangerous matchup for any opponent.

Will Stirling continue to rise through the ranks of the division championed by his teammate, or can Cutelaba hold off the young contender? We'll find out on Saturday night, with a potential angle to turn a profit based on either scenario.

Here's my Cutelaba vs. Stirling pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Ion Cutelaba is an example of a very specific niche in the UFC ecosystem. A dangerous, yet flawed, veteran who is capable of separating ranked fighters from the field by virtue of their performances against him.

Cutelaba is extremely dangerous on the feet, a wild brawler with big power in his hands. He's neither accurate nor defensively sound, but if you stand in front of him, he can find the button. That's probably a solid matchup for Stirling, though, considering he's a polished kickboxer with excellent striking defense.

More importantly for this matchup — and the betting angle we'll get to — Stirling is fairly risk-averse. I don't necessarily mean that as a negative, either. He knows he can outland the vast majority of his opponents on the feet without exposing himself to too much damage, and chooses to do so rather than put himself at risk. Standing 6'4" with a 79" reach certainly helps to achieve that end, as does his striking background and training at City Kickboxing.

A fight at the Apex limits some of the advantages provided by his range, and this is just his second appearance there following his Contender Series bout. He outstruck his opponent 52 to 25 in that matchup, though that's a lower level of competition than he faces here. I'm not especially worried about him getting clipped — though it's a possibility — but the grappling of Cutelaba could be a bigger issue in the smaller cage.

Both of Cutelaba's recent wins have come via first-round submission, and he averages nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes with a nearly 50% accuracy rate. Stirling has defended 82% of the takedowns he's faced thus far, but was taken down multiple times by Tucco Tokkos and Rodolfo Bellato. While he was able to survive those exchanges without much issue, the power and aggression of Cutelaba from top position makes for a different challenge.

Cutelaba's recent wins have come via submission, but his three previous finishes all came via ground and pound, also in the first round. Once he gets to top position, he'll sell out looking for whatever kind of finish presents itself — then typically gas out if he's unable to find it.

That's where Stirling's upside comes in. If he's able to deny Cutelaba's takedowns and/or survive a trip to the mat, he should pull away easily as the fight goes on. Another benefit to his smooth striking is that it doesn't take much energy and allows him to maintain the pace throughout the fight.

When Stirling does finish fights, it's usually due to an accumulation of damage rather than a big shot. His two UFC/DWCS knockouts came with 63 and 52 significant strikes landed, and those were the two lowest striking totals of his career.

Cutelabas is a bit of a glass cannon, but most of his knockout losses have come to big power punchers (Khalil Rountree, Kennedy Nzechukwu, and Magomedov Ankalaev being the three). I'm not sure that Stirling has the ability or desire to throw the heavy shots necessary to finish Cutelaba quickly, which means a Stirling win likely comes later in the fight.

Cutelaba vs. Stirling Pick, Prediction

Sean Zerillo and I discussed this fight on our latest UFC Betting preview, where we were broadly in agreement about the two likely outcomes — and Sean gave an interesting explanation about the ways in which fighters generate knockouts:

Fortunately, given the odds involved, it's fairly easy to set yourself up to profit if either of those outcomes takes place. While Sean is betting Cutelaba by sub at +1100, I prefer his Round 1 odds of +1300 at BetRivers, given that an early TKO finish feels more likely than a sub later in the fight (and 13-to1 odds are better than 11-to-one). I'm sprinkling 0.2 units there to win up to 2.6.

The other outcome is Stirling landing a ton of volume on the feet, en route to either a late finish or a decision win. His significant strike prop is 47.5 at DraftKings, with the over coming in at -115.

By betting to win a unit on the strikes prop, you come out with a 0.8 unit profit if Stirling goes over. The likeliest we he goes under is a Cutelaba Round 1 finish — which would also net just under 1.5 units.

Obviously, you can shift these numbers to suit your risk tolerance/assessment of the likely outcome, but playing both creates a very high odds of a solid profit while only risking a bit over a unit.

Billy's Picks: Cutelaba Round 1 (+1300) | Stirling Over 47.5 SS (-115)

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