Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer Odds
| Adesanya Odds | -148 |
| Pyfer Odds | +124 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-135/+105) |
| Location | Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, Washington |
| Bout Time | 11:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Seattle odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Seattle with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer prediction for UFC Seattle on Saturday, March 28, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington, for a 13-fight card, featuring a middleweight main event between former champion Israel Adesanya and No. 14-ranked contender Joe Pyfer.
Adesanya enters on a three-fight losing streak, with four losses in his past five fights, since defeating Alex Pereira in a revenge spot at UFC 287. Still, he has substantially more main-event experience than Pyfer; Saturday will mark Adesanya's 14th consecutive main-event or five-round fight in the UFC.
Conversely, Pyfer gassed out in his lone five-round attempt against Jack Hermansson, en route to a decision loss, but he's responded with three consecutive wins (two finishes) and enters Saturday's contest with a 7-1 promotional record.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Seattle Main Event on Saturday and use those factors to bet on these middleweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET (8:45 p.m. PT) on Saturday evening.
Here's my Adesanya vs. Pyfer pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Adesanya | Grasso | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-5 | 15-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 17:35 | 8:10 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 80" | 75" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/22/1989 | 9/17/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.02 | 3.47 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.20 | 3.05 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.05 | 1.23 |
| TD Acc | 11% | 33% |
| TD Def | 76% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.0 |
Adesanya is the longer and taller athlete than Pyfer (2" taller, 5" reach advantage), the more technical and efficient distance striker both visually and statistically (+1.0 to +0.4 strike different per minute at distance), against a higher level of competition, and he likely has the better gas tank too.
Still, Adesanya has looked physically depleted as he nears the end of his career. Pyfer is seven years younger than the former champion, carries more power, and is both quicker and more explosive.
Pyfer's best opportunities to win this fight will come if he applies pressure against Adesanya early and catches him with an overhand (a la Sean Strickland's knockdown over Izzy) or can land takedowns and bully him on the ground. Adesanya has shown excellent takedown defense (77%) throughout his career, and Pyfer isn't the most proactive (1.6 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance) or effective wrestler (landed 16 attempts, 25%).
Additionally, while Adesanya rarely offensively grapples (21% control rate), Pyfer has been outgrappled by his own opposition (44% control rate), who have forced the issue against him. He may be a superior offensive grappler relative to his defensive skillset, but forcing the grappling early could leave him gassed for the latter part of the fight, and he's shown a tendency to tire even in pure striking bouts.
Pyfer is often a fast starter, but he dropped the final three rounds of his main event bout with Jack Hermasson, as his own cardio waned, and the underdog rallied for a decision win. And he also tired in and dropped the third round on two of three scorecards in a competitive fight with Kelvin Gastelum.
Unless Pyfer catches Adesanya with a big punch or takes him down and locks in a submission in the first ten minutes, I'd give him very little chance of finishing the fight at all, and he should find it increasingly more difficult to win rounds on the scorecards as the fight extends. Conversely, I suspect that Adesanya's finish equity will come later in the fight as Pyfer tires, particularly in Rounds 4 (+1600) or 5 (+1800). Still, there are smarter ways to express that opinion at similar odds.
I'd expect a typically conservative, outside-point fighting style from Adesanya for the first two or three rounds, before he potentially increases his own pressure to storm back in the fight or secure a late finish.
As a result, while I do show a small pre-fight edge on Adesanya's moneyline, I suspect that you'll find a better price than his pre-fight number at some point before the 2.5 round mark of the contest, and I'd wait live for a straight bet on the favorite at the most efficient time and price point.
Betting Insight
My model projected Israel Adesanya is a 61.6% favorite (-150 implied odds) in the UFC Seattle main event on Saturday. As a result, while I do show a slight edge on his moneyline at current odds, I would likely need something closer to -145 to place the bet pre-fight. Otherwise, I would target a live number anytime after Round 2, with the peak price potentially coming in the middle of the third round.
I also projected the fight to reach a decision nearly 45% of the time (+124 implied odds) and showed slight value on the Overs or decision props, even at odds as high as +145.
However, my projection for Adesanya to win by decision (+197) is higher than the market (+175). While I show a slight edge both on Adesanya by KO/TKO (projected +325, listed +350) and Pyfer by decision (+809 projected vs. +850 listed), neither projection is far enough away from the market to justify a wager.
Ultimately, I landed on Fight Starts Round 4 (-155), which removes Adesanya's late-finish equity from the equation but also gives us an out (unlike an Adesanya SGP) if he has further declined physically, or if Pyfer has further progressed to handle the championship-round workload and win a 25-minute decision.
Sean's Pick: Fight Starts Round 4, -160 (DraftKings) | Israel Adesanya Live after Round 2
