After a very interesting UFC 328 in which two underdogs won title fights — both of whom I listed as undervalued — the UFC is back at the Apex this week. Frankly, they seem to be mostly phoning it in as the MMA world turns its attention to the Rousey-Carano card on Netflix, but hopefully that means we can get some soft lines for the card.
The 13-fight even headlined by fan-favorites Arnold Allen and Melky Costa, goes down at the usual 5 pm ET start time on Paramount+, with the MVP promotions card on Netflix an hour later.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 117 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 117 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Arnold Allen (-198) vs. Melky Costa (+164)
Both Allen and Costa are firmly in the rankings of a stacked featherweight division, but also seemingly nowhere near title contention. However, a win this weekend probably changes that, at least for Costa, who has won six straight, including consecutive first-round knockout victories.
Recent results haven't been as kind to Allen, who is 1-3 over his last four. Of course, he's fought much tougher competition along the way, with those three losses all coming to fighters ranked inside the top six of their divisions (one came to Max Holloway, who has since moved to lightweight, where he's ranked #4.)
That makes this a fairly standard "let's see what we have" fight for the prospect Costa, even though he's just three years younger than Allen. My gut tells me that Costa's recent improvements should be enough to get past the veteran Allen, at least more than the 40% or so of the time implied by the moneyline. However, the price on Costa has been broadly rising since the market opened, and most Tapology respondents are picking Allen, so we can probably wait for a better price on Costa later in the week.
Verdict: Costa Undervalued
Doo Ho Choi (+120) vs. Daniel Santos (-142)
Daniel Satnos must have a provision in his UFC contract that he is only going to fight Korean opponents, as the matchup with "The Korean Superboy" marks his third straight bout against Korean opponents.
It's gone well for "Willycat" though, with wins over Jeong Leong Lee and Joo Sang Yoo in 2025. The latter was supposed to be his fight against Choi, with the veteran forced to pull out due to a knee injury.
Santos is 4-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming in his debut. That fight was his first competition in nearly three years due to the COVID pandemic, and he's been on a tear since then. Choi is on a two fight winning streak of his own, but both came against fighters on the wrong side of 35 at the time of the matchup (Nate Landwehr and Bill Algeo).
Now Choi is the one past 35, and also hasn't competed in 18 months due to the knee injury that forced him out against Santos. That's not a great sign for an older fighter, especially one who has fought just three times in the past six years.
With the line already moving towards Santos, I want to get in at the best price, which is currently the -142 at DraftKings. Don't expect it to last long.
Verdict: Santos Undervalued
Bernardo Sopaj (-162) vs. Timmy Cuamba (+136)
I was planning on betting on Bernardo Sopaj at some point this week anyway, as I view the 25-year-old prospect as one of the best up-and-comers in the sport. He dropped a hard-fought decision in his late-notice UFC debut against Vinicius Oliveira, before dominating Ricky Turcios in his sophomore outing.
Cuama is only two years older but is 2-2 in the promotion, and neither of his wins was as impressive as Sopaj's over Turcios in my eyes.
However, the reason I'm mentioning any of this now is due to a weird blip in the betting lines. Sopaj has mostly held at around -160 since the markets came up, but on Monday, that line briefly dropped to -148 on DraftKings. Some other books followed suit and haven't caught up yet, despite DraftKings back at -162.
BetRivers, and the other shops that use Kambi as an odds provider, currently have Sopaj at just -149. If you can grab those lines before they come back to the -160 or shorter offered everywhere else, I'd do so. If not, I'd still take Sopaj, but it might be worth waiting until later in the week to see if we get any further line movement.
Verdict: Sopaj Undervalued (BetRivers)
