Lily Smith/The Register/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images. Pictured: Montel Jackson
Read our UFC Vegas 117 predictions for this live event on Saturday from the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. As is the new normal, the prelims kick off at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with the main card at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 11-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
There's an abundance of converted grapplers on the UFC Vegas 117 card, and for once, I was able to resist the urge to bet all of their moneylines blindly. In part, that's because I was able to find some much better angles, particularly on Marcus "Buchecha" Almeida.
By far the most credentialed jiu-jitsu athlete in the UFC, "Buchecha" has nine IBJJF world titles to his name (seven in the gi and two no gi) plus a pair of ADCC wins, and a BJJ-themed rap song named after him. The transition to MMA hasn't been without its issues, though. He is officially 0-1-1 in the UFC since being signed from ONE FC, with the draw coming as a result of an eye poke from his opponent.
Unsurprisingly, the big issue for Buchecha is his striking. He's not terrible on the feet, but is clearly still uncomfortable there and looking for any opportunity to bring the fight to the mat. With just a 16% takedown accuracy in the UFC, that's also an issue — takedowns are a lot harder when your opponent is under no obligation to engage you on the ground. While Buchecha has managed to avoid being finished on the feet in his MMA career, he faces a dangerous opponent this time in Ryan Spann.
The former light heavyweight Spann is 5-6 over his last 11 fights, with all five of those wins and three losses coming in the very first round. His cardio issues will be exacerbated by taking this fight on just a few days' notice, but for a few minutes, he'll be extremely dangerous while striking. He also might have the takedown defense to keep it standing for a short period, although the smaller UFC Apex cage doesn't do him any favors there.
Buchecha is also more dangerous early, both due to his own questionable cardio and the fact that submissions are easier to come by early in fights, before both fighters get sweaty enough to slip out of most joint locks. There's also a good chance that Spann sells out for the finish at the beginning of this fight before "cardio tapping" late in the first if things don't go his way.
This fight is -105 to end in the first round on DraftKings, which I feel much better about than picking a winner. I'd play that down to -125.
Montel Jackson is both five years younger than Raoni Barcelos, and the much more physically imposing bantamweight, standing 5'10" with a 75" reach; three inches taller, and eight inches longer than his opponent.
Barcelos is a relatively popular underdog selection this week – less than a year and a half removed from his upset over Payton Talbott as a +750 underdog. He's an extremely well-rounded fighter and should have an advantage over Jackson on the mat (77% vs. 63% control rate) if he can get the fight to the ground (averages 3.3 takedowns per five minutes at distance, 31% accuracy).
Jackson is the more efficient (+1.3 to -0.4 differential) and powerful striker at range, and the far more durable man. He has recorded 13 knockdowns across eight of 13 UFC bouts, and has typically wobbled opponents in other moments throughout his fights.
Still, Jackson doesn't have great finishing instincts, and he can't necessarily maintain a high pace (3.8 strikes landed per minute), likely due to the weight cut to 135.
Both fighters excel defensively (61% striking defense). Still, Barcelos is seemingly getting wobbled by clean connections in all of his recent bouts, and it does seem a matter of time before he gets knocked out again in his late thirties.
If Jackson can deny takedowns (67% career; 49 of 63) or clinch positions by using his massive hands to break wrist control, he should land the more damaging strikes at distance, and carries far greater finishing upside in a striking matchup.
I projected Jackson as a -213 favorite (68% implied) in this fight; take his moneyline up to -195, at just under a 2% edge relative to my number.
Action Network is a team of seasoned sports betting experts specializing in a broad range of sports, from the NFL and NBA to less mainstream options like cricket and darts. Their staff includes well-known analysts like Sean Koerner and Stuckey, recognized for their accurate predictions and deep sports knowledge. The team is dedicated to delivering expert analysis and daily best bets, ensuring bettors are well-informed across all major sports.
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.
