Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez Odds
| Garcia Odds | +110 |
| Hernandez Odds | -130 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-238/+180) |
| Location | Apex Center, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 117 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 117 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez prediction for UFC Vegas 117 on Saturday, April 25, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Two lightweights riding winning streaks will collide on Saturday as Alexander Hernandez and Rafa Garcia do battle on the main card. Both men are squarely in their fighting prime, and given their most recent performances, each seems to be peaking in terms of their confidence. Oddsmakers have lined this bout very closely, but I am not seeing it the same way, which has created a very good wagering opportunity.
Here's my Garcia vs. Hernandez pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Garcia | Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 28-4 | 18-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:24 | 10:05 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/5/1994 | 10/01/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.31 | 4.31 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.54 | 4.50 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.13 | 1.54 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 36% |
| TD Def | 76% | 73% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 1.1 |
Garcia and Hernandez boast nearly identical statistics when their fights are playing out at striking distance. Both fighters land 4.3 significant strikes per minute and absorb 4.5 significant strikes per minute. Garcia has been more dependent on his wrestling and grappling, averaging 3.1 takedowns per 15 minutes over the course of his ten fights within the UFC organization.
Hernandez has matured greatly in recent years, but he has always possessed the athleticism and upside to be a contender. He will use his edge in footwork to keep Garcia at a safe distance, and he has shown the ability to stay patient until an opening presents itself. Given the athletic discrepancy and style Garcia will have to fight, Hernandez should be able to negate any takedown attempts.
Hernandez has a 73% takedown defense and has fought much more difficult competition than his opponent, Garcia. Hernandez has not been taken down during his four-fight winning streak, and it wouldn’t shock me if he ends up being the one to change levels opportunistically as Garcia presses forward.
Garcia can be a brawler at times, and my expectation is that he will resort to over-extending himself after it’s clear Hernandez has the technical edge, as well as the advantage in power. While Hernandez isn’t going to overwhelm Garcia with volume, I did not like the way Garcia reacted to getting hit in his fight with a compromised Jared Gordon in his most recent win.
Make no mistake, Garcia getting a finish victory over Jared Gordon was the biggest win of his UFC career. However, Gordon entered the octagon just days after being involved in a car accident. It was evident Gordon wanted to remain on the card far less than 100% and Garcia capitalized. It is fair to wonder how that bout would have looked otherwise, and what this fight with Hernandez would be priced at if the recency bias of Garcia’s most impressive performance wasn’t the last time we saw him.
Prior to that win for Garcia, he won a decision over a retiring Vinc Pichel in March of 2025. His only other victory over the course of 2023 and 2024 came against a 41-year-old Clay Guida. Garcia suffered a TKO loss at the hands of Grant Dawson in 2024, which is Dawson’s only win by knockout over the last five years. Dawson and Hernandez don’t share many similarities, but that result could be the writing on the wall that Garcia isn’t quite as durable as he has been given credit for, rather, his lack of competition just has not been there to expose that specific weakness.
This is Hernandez’s fight to lose. Since his move to lightweight, he has taken a more measured approach in conserving his energy, and it has been married to a much easier weight cut that doesn’t drain his gas tank as severely. Analysts will claim there may be an opportunity for Garcia to win in round 3 due to Hernandez gassing, but I do not foresee that happening if Hernandez continues to fight in the manner we’ve seen in his current form.
It is difficult to handicap this fight without addressing Hernandez’s most recent booking against Michael Johnson. After speculation and rumors, the fight was finally cancelled on the day of the bout. Line movement heavily tilted towards Johnson made many speculate Hernandez had an injury that was not disclosed, but was planning to proceed with the fight, nonetheless. If Hernandez is still dealing with an injury, there is no way to really know at this point, but taking a fight without being fully recovered would be a major error on the part of his camp. I am going to assume he is fully healthy coming into this fight.
Garcia vs. Hernandez Pick, Prediction
There are multiple paths to victory for Alexander Hernandez. His patience and timing can lead him to landing the perfect shot, as he has done multiple times during his ongoing rise up the rankings. He also has the athleticism and footwork to find the angles to land the more damaging shots as Garcia presses forward by necessity.
With the grappling of Garcia neutralized, I do not envision him winning a striking battle over a level of competition he has yet to claim a single victory against. Take the value with the streaking Hernandez fighting with an abundance of confidence.
John's Picks: Alexander Hernandez -130 (DraftKings)
