Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC Vegas 119 (Saturday, June 20)

Kyoji Horiguchi vs Manel Kape Odds

Check out the Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape prediction for UFC Vegas 119 on Saturday, June 20, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 12-fight card, featuring a likely title eliminator in the flyweight division between No. 2 contender Manel Kape and No. 5-ranked Kyoji Horiguchi.

Kape enters with a 7-3 promotional record, having won six of his past seven bouts, including three consecutive TKO victories (two in consecutive main-event wins).

Horiguchi enters with a 2-0 record in his second UFC stint (after going 7-1 with the promotion from 2013-2016). He owns a submission win over Kape from December 2017, in the Rizin Bantamweight Grand Prix semifinal. Both Kape and Horiguchi eventually went on to capture the Rizin Bantamweight title.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for UFC Vegas 119 on Saturday night and use those factors to bet on these flyweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 10:15 p.m. ET (7:15 p.m. PT) on Saturday evening.

Here's my Horiguchi vs. Kape pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

This fight sets up as a relative binary matchup, with Manel Kape as the bigger man and the more powerful striker, while Kyoji Horiguchi is the superior grappler and overall MMA fighter.

Kape is taller (1"), longer (5"), younger, and both the faster and more powerful athlete. Horiguchi is the more technical distance striker by the numbers (+1.7 to +0.7 differential per minute), but his age relative to the divisional average is a concern, and he's been knocked out by powerful strikers in the past (a clean right hand from Kai Asakara, and a spinning attack from Anthony Pettis)

While Horiguchi may land more total strikes, Kape should have more damaging and impactful moments. Unless Horiguchi is controlling this fight on the mat, it's difficult to imagine him winning clear minutes or separating on the scorecards in what are otherwise competitive rounds that should favor Kape's power.

The lingering question is how much Kape has closed the wrestling and grappling gap between them in the past nine years since their first meeting; Kape has solid first-layer takedown defense (81%), but has shown a tendency to get stuck on his back once he's put flat on the mat, and Horiguchi is clearly the superior control grappler (52% to 30% control rate).

Additionally, Horiguchi is a relatively proactive wrestler (averages 2.2 takedowns per five minutes at distance, 41% accuracy), but unless he's able to make Kape respect him on the feet first, he may not find entries to complete level changes.

While both men can compete in all facets of MMA, the expected outcome seems to be a relatively binary striker vs. grappler clash, with Kape winning if the fight stays standing and Horiguchi winning if he's able to implement his grappling.

Kape was victimized by his own lack of output in his first two UFC fights, but he's flipped the switch in recent performances and has become far more aggressive in inflicting damage upon and looking to finish his opposition.

Horiguchi will use his ringcraft and karate background to measure those blitzes (63% striking defense), but if he doesn't get this fight to the ground, it seems only a matter of time before Kape catches him with a big combination on the feet in the smaller, 25-foot APEX cage, where Horiguchi has less space to retreat.

Horiguchi vs. Kape Pick, Prediction

I projected Manel Kape as roughly a 70% favorite in this matchup (projected 70.3%, -237 implied odds), and I would bet his moneyline to around -215 (68.3% implied) for Saturday, at a two percent edge compared to my projected line.

Ultimately, Horiguchi is an extremely popular underdog selection this week; fans are backing him to win the fight more than 60% of the time, compared to implied odds of around 40%, which has made Kape a heavier favorite in my market-based model.

I also project an edge on the fight to end inside the distance, setting those odds at -165, compared to the listed odds near a pick'em price. Play the ends inside the distance prop or the fight goes to the decision NO prop, up to -150.

Additionally, I show correlated value on Kape to win by KO/TKO (projected +129, listed +200) or inside the distance (projected +103, listed +165), which you can take down to around +150 and +115, respectively.

Sean's Picks: Manel Kape -155 (DraftKings) | Fight Ends Inside the Distance -112 (FanDuel)

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