Mateusz Gamrot vs. Ludovit Klein Odds, Prediction
| Gamrot Odds | -155 |
| Klein Odds | +130 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-298/+220) |
| Location | UFC Apex | Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 11:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 107 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Vegas 107 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Mateusz Gamrot vs. Ludovit Klein predictions, picks and odds for UFC Vegas 107 on Saturday, May 31.
The UFC's #7 ranked lightweight Mateusz Gamrot is taking a step down on paper against unranked Ludovit Klein. However, Klein is just a slight underdog, which means this shot at the top ten is well-deserved. Klein is undefeated (with one draw) since stepping up to lightweight, while Gamrot is looking to bounce back from a 2024 split decision loss to Dan Hooker.
Here's my Gamrot vs. Klein prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Gamrot | Klein | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-3 | 23-4-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:18 | 12:19 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 72" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 12/11/1990 | 2/22/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.23 | 3.81 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.22 | 3.22 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 5.25 | 1.70 |
| TD Acc | 35% | 51% |
| TD Def | 90% | 91% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0 |
The determining factor in this fight is very likely to be Ludovit Klein's ability to keep the fight on the feet.
While Gamrot isn't a bad striker by any stretch, it's certainly not his strength. I also have some concerns about his chin. All three of his career losses are by decision, but he's been dropped a whopping five times in his UFC career.
On the one hand, that's a plus sign to his ability to recover. On the other, it feels like his chin is a ticking time bomb, and one more big shot could hand him his first knockout loss.
Kleinhas the ability to land those big shots. Just two of his seven UFC wins have come via knockout, but he's landed three other knockdowns. Two of those came against Thiago Moises, while the Brazilian was stubbornly — and unsuccessfully — trying to force takedowns.
Klein defended all eight of the attempts he faced in that fight last summer, which would certainly serve him well against Gamrot. Of course, Gamrot is a much higher level wrestler and grappler than anyone Klein has faced, so this is a new challenge for Klein.
Gamrot is a BJJ black belt, multiple-time ADCC European champion, and former international level freestyle wrestler as a youth. That shows in his MMA career, as he averages more than five takedowns per 15 minutes despite a 35% success rate.
That means he's attempting about a takedown per minute on average, and he's been able to find success against fellow elite grapplers like Arman Tsarukyan and Beneil Dariush, both of whom he took down at least four times.
Dariush, like Klein, is also a southpaw. While people tend to focus on the impact of fighters' stances on the striking game, it also affects grappling.
Gamrot is also listed as a southpaw but often switches to orthodox before shooting. That creates an opposite stance matchup where Gamrot can easily access his opponent's front/right leg for single leg entries. That should help the favorite to close the two-inch reach gap more easily against Klein since he won't have to cover as much distance to access one of Klein's legs.
Gamrot is also elite at catching kicks and turning them into takedowns, which is an asset against Klein. Both of his UFC knockouts came via head kicks, but he's likely to limit how often he throws them against Gamrot.
He has big power in his hands as well, though, which will make this a scary fight for Gamrot as long as it stays standing. Gamrot uses his grappling more for control and positional dominance than aggressive submission hunting, so he'll probably have to deal with the striking threat for all three rounds.
Klein started finding more UFC success when he began grappling proactively, but probably avoids that tactic in this fight. He's at a clear disadvantage in that department, and opening that door would only benefit Gamrot.
Gamrot vs. Klein Prediction
I wanted to talk myself into the underdog here, based on his impressive takedown defense numbers.
Once I got into the tape, that became harder to do. While Klein has been able to defend the takedowns of lesser grapplers, his kicks and southpaw stance both play perfectly into Gamrot's hands.
Totals and time-based props are also tricky, since the likeliest winning condition for Klein is a finish while Gamrot probably wins an extended fight.
This leaves me with a moneyline play on Gamrot. This is a big step down in competition on paper for the ATT product, and each of his prior losses were extremely close fights. It's also not a bad price all things considered.
While I thought about his decision prop, at -120 the price is close enough that it's hard to justify. If you wanted a fun flier I'd take his submission line at +950 on FanDuel as an alternate option.
I'm fine with an old-fashioned moneyline play on the favorite myself. The best price is now -155 at DraftKings.
Billy's Pick: Mateusz Gamrot -155 (DraftKings)
