Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry Prediction, Picks, Odds for MVP MMA 1 (Saturday, May 16)

Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry Odds

Check out the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry prediction for MVP 1 on Saturday, May 16, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

The co-main event for MVP MMA 1 is a welterweight showdown between warlords Nate Diaz and Mike Perry. Despite neither fighter being active on the MMA scene in recent years, this booking feels surprisingly sensible, all things considered.

Diaz, who is a legendary fan-favorite, has settled for the occasional one-off in the boxing realm since fighting out his UFC contract back in 2022. Perry left the UFC roughly one year before Diaz and, outside of a loss to Jake Paul, has been making his way as an undefeated bare-knuckle boxer.

Here's my Diaz vs. Perry pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Despite the biggest on-paper discrepancy between these two existing on the floor, both Diaz and Perry prefer sorting their fights out on the feet.

A natural-born brawler, I don't think there's ever been an exchange that Perry isn't willing to charge into. Although Perry can throw solid jabs and smartly work the body when he means to, the 34-year-old tends to sometimes headhunt and swing for the fences.

Perry can also counter with punishing hooks and crosses, as well as tag opponents viciously off the breaks. That said, Perry will have an interesting dance partner from a stylistic perspective when he squares off with the southpaw Diaz.

Under the tutelage of Richard Perez (who is also the boxing coach of Nick Diaz), we have seen the younger Diaz brother sharpen his striking skills throughout his storied career.

Firing off jab-cross continuums with the snap of a coiled cobra, Diaz offsets striking rhythms, disrupting a fighter’s timing and subsequent approach. Coupled with unabashed physical taunts and mental warfare, Stockton’s own can sneakily take over the steering wheel of the fight (even if his opposition doesn't fall asleep in the driver's seat).

Diaz may not have the offensive wrestling to reliably get to his ground game, but Perry can't afford to get lackadaisical with him in closed quarters considering Diaz's long arms and opportunistic submissions – particularly his guillotine chokes.

Diaz vs. Perry Pick, Prediction

Despite the oddsmakers setting the line at a pick'em price tag, public money has come in on the more active man, making Perry -220 and Diaz +168 as of this writing.

Although I completely understand the sentiment of backing the younger and more active party, I'm not sure how much more active Perry is.

Aside from having only one MMA in the last five years (and only winning one MMA fight in the last seven), Perry has only fought three more times than Diaz has since Stockton's finest left the UFC. More importantly, Perry has traditionally struggled when striking with southpaws, officially standing 1-4 opposite notable lefties in MMA.

As seen in the clip above, Perry has been struggling with seeing southpaw jabs and crosses for the better part of a decade now.  Even against a washed Luke Rockhold, who couldn't kick or grapple, Perry still managed to get stunned and dropped by left crosses before the now-feckless former UFC middleweight champ called off his own bout (claiming teeth issues).

Perry, despite technically being undefeated in bare-knuckle fighting, still showed issues whenever fights got extended, subsequently squeezing out narrow decisions. But with those BKFC bouts only featuring five two-minute rounds, I'll be curious to see how Perry fares going back to five-minute rounds (for potentially five frames, no less).

Perry has never gone or been scheduled to go five rounds in MMA before, so doing so against an experienced cardio king like Diaz will be a sight to behold should we get that far.

The obvious elephant in the room is Diaz's age and activity. And though I already addressed the hyperbole surrounding Diaz's inactivity in comparison to Perry's, there is no denying that the freshly turned 41-year-old could still show up to this fight even further past his prime than before. For that reason, I suggest playing this fight very lightly if you do decide to get involved.

Most of the talk I've heard involves taking Perry, who seems like the safer pick at first glance. However, when you actually peel back some of the stats and look at the tape, it makes it hard not to pick Diaz from the perspective of both a bettor and an analyst.

Diaz may be casual money by definition this week, but as we all saw last weekend with Sean Strickland – sometimes square bets cash (and this has certainly been the year for MMA veterans to shine through).

I initially came in wanting to attack the total market toward the over side of the equation, but the two extra rounds and the nature of an MMA fight make things tricky.  Whether we're talking about Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul or Francis Ngannou vs. Tyson Fury, overs have been a quiet gold mine for freak show attractions and boxing exhibitions alike. The problem here, however, is that this isn't boxing, as I highly doubt the savages involved in this matchup are interested in carrying one another.

So, with that in mind, it's a classic "pick a side and ride" spot for me.

And with Diaz looking good on the scale, I can't help but side with him here. So long as Diaz is operating anywhere between 50-75 percent of his post-prime potential, then Perry's one-note style is something that he's typically done well against throughout his career.

I don't know if Diaz will be able to knock Perry out cold, but submission snatches will absolutely be on the table via clinching and club-and-sub pathways. I'll probably sprinkle a small amount on Diaz's late-round props that are currently in the neighborhood of +2000 odds, as well as throw a half unit on his money line for anything better than +150.

Dan's Picks: Nate Diaz +1654 (FanDuel)

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