Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa Odds
| Allen Odds | -130 |
| Costa Odds | +110 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-145/+114) |
| Location | Meta Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 117 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 117 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa prediction for UFC Vegas 117 on Saturday, May 16, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC will return to the APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for an important featherweight showdown between No. 7-ranked contender Arnold Allen and No. 12-ranked Melquizael Costa.
Allen, the Englishman, enters with a 1-3 record in his past four fights. Still, those losses have come against title-contender-level competition (against Max Holloway, Movsar Evloev, and Jean Silva), and he has proven 25-minute cardio, winning the fifth round unanimously in his lone main event try against Holloway.
The Brazilian-born Costa enters on a six-fight winning streak and carries a 7-2 promotional record. Still, he has shown a tendency to slow in the third round of his extended fights, and will face the possibility of championship rounds for the first time in his career.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 117 Main Event on Saturday night and use those factors to bet on these featherweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 10:15 p.m. ET (7:15 p.m. PT) on Saturday night.
Here's my Allen vs. Costa pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Allen | Costa | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-4 | 26-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:43 | 9:11 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 71" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 1/22/1994 | 9/14/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.47 | 4.38 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.04 | 2.97 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.86 | 2.00 |
| TD Acc | 47% | 40% |
| TD Def | 71% | 58% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 1.1 |
Costa is the bigger athlete — standing two inches taller with a one-inch reach advantage in a southpaw vs. southpaw matchup — and by the numbers, he is the superior distance striker, outlanding opponents by more than 3 significant strikes per minute at distance, compared to +0.6 for Allen.
Still, Allen lands more head strikes and carries more power compared to Costa's superior kicking game, and he has faced far stiffer competition. Additionally, his data is slightly skewed by his loss to Max Holloway (out-landed 146-76 at distance), for instance. Allen won rounds in all of his recent losses, but he just seemed a half step below the best fighters in the Featherweight division, whereas this fight should be far more competitive.
It's also worth noting, per my colleague Dan Tom, that Allen is 1-0 in the UFC against a southpaw (Makwan Amirkhani) while Costa is 0-1 (Steve Garcia).
Costa has finished four of his seven UFC wins, but Allen has shown excellent durability, never being knocked down in the UFC or finished in his professional career.
As a result, I'm expecting Costa to see an extended fight, and he has struggled in more elongated matchups. His knockout loss against Steve Garcia came after shooting 10 takedowns (4:41 control time) over the first six minutes of the fight before slowing. He also lost unanimous third rounds in decision wins over both Christian Rodriguez and Julian Erosa.
Allen isn't a prolific wrestler (0.8 takedown attempts per five minutes, 48% accuracy), but he should attempt to tire Costa out by mixing in grappling exchanges. If he can take this fight into the clinch and make things dirty, Allen could potentially tire out Costa more quickly for the later rounds (46% to 39% control rate). Costa has the better jiu-jitsu and is the more proactive grappler (3.3 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance, 41% accuracy), but Allen may be the superior wrestler (72% to 59% takedown defense).
Ultimately, Costa's success should be frontloaded, but I do think his gas tank caps his five-round upside, and I'd expect Allen to work his way back into this contest eventually. As a result, you can likely find a better price on the favorite in the live market at some point after Round 1 or Round 2.
Allen vs. Costa Pick, Prediction
I projected Arnold Allen as a -130 (56.5% implied) favorite in this fight, and I would consider betting his moneyline up to -125 prefight, while waiting to add more live anytime after Round 1 (with the best entry point potentially coming after Round 2.
Allen opened closer to -150 (60% implied) for this matchup, and the line initially moved to -165 (62.3% implied). Still, action has come in on Costa's side, pushing Allen's moneyline down into an actionable range, nearer to -120 (54.5% implied).
I projected this fight to reach a decision around 50% of the time, and I don't show actionable value for the totals or distance props, or any winning-method props.
To reiterate, take Allen to -120 prefight, and look to add more Allen live anytime after the opening round.
Sean's Picks: Arnold Allen -113 (Polymarket) | Arnold Allen Live Anytime After Round 1
