Francis Ngannou vs. Phillipe Lins Odds
| Ngannou Odds | -2000 |
| Lins Odds | +830 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+180/-225) |
| Location | Intuit Dome, Inglewood California |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Netflix |
| MVP 1 odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel. Bet on MVP MMA with our FanDuel Promo Code | |
Check out the Francis Ngannou vs. Phillipe Lins prediction for MVP 1 on Saturday, May 16, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
MVP MMA will certainly bring some interesting returns in terms of name value to their card on Saturday night, but only Francis Ngannou can claim he remains near his fighting prime. Ngannou hasn’t competed in the UFC since early 2022, but he successfully chased riches all the while bolstering his legacy as one of the most unique and feared fighters in combat history. He will look to continue building on it against the veteran Philipe Lins, it just might take him a few more minutes to secure victory than the current expectation.
Here's my Ngannou vs. Lins pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Ngannou | Lins | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-3 | 18-5 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'2" |
| Weight | 256 lbs | 206 lbs |
| Reach | 83" | 78" |
Ngannou entered the realm of boxing and immediately challenged two of the world’s best heavyweights , Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua. Pushing Fury to a split decision and scoring a knockdown in the bout was one of the more impressive feats we have ever seen from a mixed martial artist in boxing.
It is no secret that Ngannou is one of the most feared strikers the game has ever seen, but he also rounded out his MMA game quite well as he progressed in age. His return to MMA in October of 2024 under the PFL banner saw him use his wrestling and ground control skills over Renan Ferreira as the path of least resistance. After landing some powerful leg kicks in the early going, Ferreira overextended on a couple of strikes, and a level change from Ngannou put him on his back which led to the eventual finish a couple of minutes later.
If you are a Ngannou fan, it was great to see him use the skills he hadn’t needed in a prize fight since January of 2022, when he bested Cyril Gane by unanimous decision to remain the heavyweight king. The entire storyline of his career since knocking out Stipe Miocic over five years ago is important because it has set him up as a massive favorite in his upcoming fight against Lins, so much so that it is difficult to find an angle to exploit in the betting markets.
I believe there are two specific angles to attack in this contest, mainly depending on what your outlook on Lins is at 40 years of age. Lins ended his UFC tenure on a four-fight winning streak, with his last win coming at light heavyweight. He will be at a major size disadvantage against Ngannou, although Lins has competed primarily at heavyweight. His skillset is more than adequate to compete against the current crop of UFC heavyweights outside of the top ten, and his boxing skills are actually quite underrated in my estimation.
Lins ability to use head movement at boxing range is one of the most important skills he’ll need to utilize heading into this dangerous task versus the most dangerous striker he has faced in his career. In interviews, he has claimed that the time off between his last fight has helped him recover from nagging injuries and that he is feeling rejuvenated nearing his 41st birthday.
Many fighters say the right thing in their interviews, but he really emphasized the fact that this was the biggest opportunity of his fighting career. That narrative is a factor in my handicap because, for Ngannou, it is the exact opposite. Ngannou is expecting to show up for the payday and make quick work of his opponent. This matchup for the former heavyweight king represents a step-down in both competition and allure.
Ngannou may dispose of Lins as quickly as most expect, and I will not blame anybody for taking that angle at -135 for Ngannou to win by KO/TKO in the first round. However, Lins has the tools to avoid a few of the headhunting power shots coming in his direction. Most importantly, Lins needs to make sure there are only just a few openings for Ngannou to take in the first round by being extremely cautious. Keep in mind, this fight is scheduled for five rounds. While it is highly unlikely we see the 4th or 5th round, even Ngannou will understand he has plenty of time to land the fight-ending strike.
Ngannou vs. Lins Pick, Prediction
It will not be a particularly fun endeavor rooting against the first-round knockout in this spot, considering it is the most likely outcome and for the fact it can happen in an instant. However, I really like the correlated value here by not only backing this fight to see a 2nd round, but for Ngannou to find that fight-ending opening in the second frame, specifically.
I will be playing just a half-unit for this fight to be extended past five minutes in addition to a quarter-unit in which Ngannou finds the KO/TKO in round 2.
John's Picks: Fight to start Round 2 +118 (0.5u) | Francis Ngannou by KO/TKO in Round 2 +430 (0.25u) Both via FanDuel
