Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Odds
| Rousey Odds | -590 |
| Carano Odds | +390 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+160/-190) |
| Location | Intuit Dome, Inglewood California |
| Bout Time | 11:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Netflix |
| MVP 1 odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel. Bet on MVP MMA with our FanDuel Promo Code | |
Check out the Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano prediction for MVP 1 on Saturday, May 16, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The main event of the first-ever event on Netflix features two pioneers of women's MMA, both of whom were once arguably the sport's biggest stars. Both women are familiar with breaking new ground. Carano was half of the first-ever women's fight on network TV, when she fought on the EliteXC: Primetime event on CBS back in 2008. Rousey's UFC 157 title fight was the first women's fight in the UFC, paving the way for WMMA in the UFC in general.
Both of those events were a long time ago, and we haven't seen either woman compete in combat sports in a long time. I wouldn't expect either to be anywhere near the level they once were, but what do they still have in the tank? We will find out Saturday on Netflix.
Here's my Rousey vs. Carano pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Rousey | Carano | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-2 | 7-1 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'8" |
| Weight | 145 lbs | 145 lbs |
| Reach | 66" | 66.5" |
Normally, when writing full fight previews, my process begins by watching a few of the most recent fights for both competitors. That's a bit difficult this time around, and also probably not especially valuable.
Both fought in a completely different era of MMA than we are in now — as well as a different era than each other. While it's easy to group both as "long-retired fighters making a comeback," Rousey's last fight was in 2016, while Carano last fought all the way back in 2009. In fact, Rousey didn't even begin fighting until 2010 when she made her amateur debut, and didn't turn pro until March of 2011.
That means that the entirety of Rousey's 14-fight professional career has happened since Carano last fought. "Rowdy" is also about five years younger and was at least somewhat active in athletic endeavors since leaving the UFC, thanks to her time as a professional wrestler. That's certainly not the same thing as competing in a "real" combat sport, but she was keeping herself in shape and physically active through roughly 2023.
The obvious part of this dynamic is that Rousey is considerably closer to her prime than Carano. The part that seems to be less acknowledged is how different a sport MMA was during Rousey's heyday than Carano's.
When Carano retired, MMA had only existed for about 15 years. Most fighters still trained in one specific martial art or style, rather than treating MMA as its own sport. Carano played team sports in high school before taking up Muay Thai with her then-boyfriend, before bringing her kickboxing skills over to MMA. The combination of solid striking and natural athleticism — her father played in the NFL — was enough for her to find some success in the nascent women's MMA scene at the time.
By the time Rousey transitioned to MMA, it was a full-fledged sport with dedicated training centers becoming the norm. Fighters cross-trained in a variety of disciplines, and the expectation was at least a basic proficiency in striking, submission grappling, and wrestling. More importantly, Rousey was also a lifelong martial artist, trained in Judo from a young age by her mother, a former world champion in the days before women's Judo was added to the Olympics.
While Rousey arguably never got to the "basic proficiency" level in striking, she was also competing against much tougher competition than Carano and developed her all-around game throughout her career. Think about the difference in skill level from the NBA stars of the 90s compared to the 60s, and you'll have a general idea about the difference between Rousey's era and Carano's.
Rousey vs. Carano Pick, Prediction
All of the above was to say that Rousey should probably be an even heavier favorite than her -600 or so odds imply. I've been on Rousey since this fight was announced, getting plenty of action down between the -400 and -500 price range. Were I already not so heavily exposed, I'd still take the current odds, though.
Obviously, laying that kind of juice on an MMA fight isn't the most exciting bet. It's probably the smartest one in this case, but I've got another angle in case someone wants to have a bit more fun.
Rousey clearly doesn't have any bad blood with Carano, and is more focused on selling the concept of MVP MMA than simply mauling her opponent. I have a suspicion that she carries Carano in the early stages of this one in an attempt to put on a show, rather than simply running through her in the first round as Rousey typically did in her prime (11 of her 12 wins were in Round 1.)
Rousey in Round 2 is +400 via FanDuel, which I find more interesting than the over 1.5 rounds at +160. I could see Rousey carrying this one a bit — but don't expect it to drag out for 25 minutes.
Billy's Picks: Rousey Round 2 +400 (FanDuel)
