Troy Taormina-Imagn Images. Pictured: Melquizael Costa
Read our UFC Vegas 117 predictions for this live event on Saturday from the Meta Apex in Las Vegas. As is the new normal, the prelims kick off at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with a 9:00 p.m. main card.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
The UFC Vegas 117 card opens with a low-level women's strawweight bout, as Nicolle Caliari returns to the division to take on Shauna "Mama B" Bannon.
The pair has a combined UFC record of 2-4, with both wins belonging to Bannon. However, those wins came against Puja Tomar and Alice Ardelean, with the latter via split decision against an opponent who accepted the fight on a few days' notice.
That's a stark contrast to Caliari, whose two losses both came against tough fighters at flyweight. She lost a split decision to Ernesta Kareckaite, then was finished by Carli Judice (3-1 UFC record) before returning to the 115-lbs weight class she primarily fought in before the UFC.
Before those losses, Caliari was 8-2 as a pro, with all eight wins coming inside the distance — including a first-round armbar on the Contender Series.
Bannon was submitted in her most recent outing by a stylistically similar fighter, Sam Hughes, who controlled Bannon on the ground for more than 5:29 of a fight that lasted less than seven total minutes. Caliari probably isn't the wrestler that Huges is, but is arguably the better submission grappler, so the outcome is likely similar should this one make it to the ground.
Plus, Bannon was nearly finished by the diminutive Puja Tomar before Tomar inserted herself into the fight-ending armbar, and Caliari has five knockout wins on her resume. The best option for the Brazilian would be to grapple, but I'm not entirely confident that Bannon will be safe even in the striking portion of this fight.
Caliari's -290 moneyline is about right, but it's hard for me to see why she's a whopping +350 to win this fight by stoppage. That implies that roughly 30% of her win condition is a finish, which seems absurd for a fighter with a 100% finish rate taking on an opponent who was submitted in their last bout.
A pair of Lightweights will make their UFC debuts on Saturday, as 33-year-old Tommy Gantt faces a short-notice replacement in 22-year-old debutant Artur Minev, rather than octagon veteran Trey Ogden. And I'm surprised that Gantt is a shorter favorite against Minev than he was against Ogden (-250 before the fight was canceled).
Minev is unbeaten (7-0) with six finishes in seven fights. Still, he should be both the smaller man (Gantt is two inches taller with a six-inch reach advantage) and at a severe grappling disadvantage in this matchup against Gantt, a former Division-I All-American at North Carolina State.
Gantt hasn't been a professional for very long (debuted in April 2024). Still, he's been guided by former two-division UFC champion and commentator Daniel Cormier and former two-division World Series of Fighting champion David Branch, and the UFC seems invested in giving him the right matchups to move him aggressively up the 155-pound ladder.
I'd expect Gantt's chain wrestling to prove victorious here, particularly in the smaller APEX cage. He sets up his entries well and should be able to dictate where the fight takes place, and I'm expecting him to drown Minev on the mat and find a finish.
I projected Gantt as a -275 favorite (73.3% implied) and would bet his moneyline up to around -250 (71.4% implied) at just under a 2% edge compared to my projected line. And I also show potential value on Gantt to win either by KO/TKO (projected +372, listed +450), or inside the distance (projected +127, listed +140).
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