Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 333 (Saturday, October 24)

Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili

Check out the Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili prediction for UFC 333 on Saturday, October 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

The co-headliner in Abu Dhabi features a rubber match for the bantamweight title between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili. With their series tied 1-1, winning the trilogy will be crucial for both men's legacy and the division's future alike.

Dvalishvili upset the oddsmakers in his first encounter with Yan in 2023, putting on a career-best performance with his patented wrestling pressure. And by the time Yan built his way back into title contention two years later, the narratives on each man had been overcorrected so much that Yan ended up scoring an even bigger odds-on upset with his masterclass over Dvalishvili last December.

Here's my Yan vs. Dvalishvili pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

When both men are at their best, this matchup is basically the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object.

Dvalishvili, who is the unstoppable force in this equation, carries the nickname "The Machine" for a reason. As we saw in their first fight, Dvalishvili brings a seemingly never-ending source of stamina that fuels his multi-leveled attacks.

Smartly incorporating more feints since moving shop to Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas, Dvalishvili has made efforts to better disguise his strikes and takedown entries alike. And when the former champ can get fighters to bite on what he's selling, Dvalishvili can start to suffocate traffic lanes as he steadily rolls downhill on opponents by overloading them with looks and levels.

Dvalishvili got a bit too strike-happy in his second meeting with Yan, so expect the Georgian fighter to trend back toward their initial bout by focusing on his wrestling more this Saturday.

Yan, who was reportedly dealing with a hand injury the first time around, was able to thoroughly out-wrestle Dvalishvili in the rematch.

Whether it was Yan's patented defensive hand-fighting or the impactful takedowns he hit on Dvalishvili, the Russian phenom was almost disdainful with the message he was trying to send in that department. And sadly for Dvalishvili, Yan's ability to properly use both hands only amplified things on the feet.

Although Yan still utilized plenty of high guards and jabs back at UFC 323, the two-time champion was noticeably more comfortable when incorporating his trademark long guard and Dutch-style hand traps standing.

Not only did this allow Yan to more fluidly box with Dvalishvili, but the use of his right hand meant that "No Mercy" could conduct traffic from southpaw and abuse his Georgian foe with his brutal body kicks (all things I called for as one of the only analysts or pundits to publicly pick Yan ahead of their rematch last year).

Yan vs. Dvalishvili Pick, Prediction

The oddsmakers and the public favor the Russian fighter, listing Yan -135 and Dvalishvili +114 as of this writing.

Considering the historical over corrections in this series by bookmakers and the Gen Pop alike, it's easier to argue that the spread above is the closest thing to a true line when looking from the median perspective. However, when factoring in the confirmation bias I received on my reads last time around, I can't help but feel like anything under -175 is a steal for the Yan side of the equation.

Not only will Dvalishvili, once again, not have the assistance of the smaller octagon that was present in their first fight, but the Georgian fighter's lack of "game over" ground skills and killer instinct means that even scored takedowns aren't going to guarantee the win against Yan (who, even at his worst, was able to get up every time Dvalishvili got him down in their first fight).

Yan apparently had a procedure done on his back at the beginning of the year, but Dvalishvili, who looks awful in pre-fight media this week, is the only one to say that they wished they had more time to prepare for this fight. Despite Dvalishvili coming off a decent break by his standards, the former champ appears to still be bringing fresh injuries into fight week – this time a grossly inflamed nose.

Whereas Yan, despite the reported surgery, looks to be in the shape of his life and more confident than ever.

If you're looking for a median of Yan outcomes and a discount on his money line, then I suggest checking out his double chance option for him to win by knockout or points. However, it's not a huge price discount at this point, so give me Yan at -135 via DraftKings

Dan's Picks: Yan -135 (DraftKings) 

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