Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 333 (Saturday, October 24)

Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita

Check out the Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita prediction for UFC 333 on Saturday, October 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

The UFC 333 main card opens with a bout between two fighters with an eerily similar start to their UFC careers. The signings of both Aaron Pico and Losene Keita were big news in 2025, but both men dropped their debut — with Keita having his first planned matchup scratched due to a weight miss.

Both have bounced back in impressive fashion, with Pico coming off a decision win over Patricio Pitbull and Keita finishing Muhhamad Naimov. Only one of these touted prospects can get their UFC record over .500, so who will it be?

Here's my Pico vs. Keita pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Aaron Pico has been a known commodity in the combat sports world since he was a freshman in high school. Pico went 42-0 in his first year of high school wrestling, winning the California State Championship. He finished his high school career as the top folkstyle recruit in the country, and won the U17 world championship in freestyle. That's on top of competing in boxing and Pankration (an MMA variant that emphasizes grappling over striking) as a youth.

MMA was always the goal for Pico, who skipped competing in college in favor of singing endorsement deals and training for the Olympics, narrowly missing a spot on the Olympic team after making the 70 KG final match. From there, he made his long-awaited debut in MMA, signing with Bellator where he exclusively competed prior to UFC 319.

That's where the trouble began for the "can't miss" prospect. He was submitted in his first Bellator fight, which came against an 8-2 vet, and has since been knocked out three times, plus a TKO due to a shoulder injury. While Pico is still just 30 and continues to show he has all the skills of an elite fighter, his chin remains a constant problem, with the brutal knockout loss he suffered to Lerone Murphy in his UFC debut another example.

To his credit, Pico seems aware of this. He took Murphy down twice in that fight, which lasted just over three minutes, with more than two minutes of ground control time. Unlike many wrestlers and grapplers to come to MMA, Pico knows where his bread is buttered, and looks to push that edge where he can. In his decision win over Patricio Pitbull, he landed six takedowns on 13 attempts, even while out-landing the fellow Bellator vet on the feet.

Out-landing Keita on the feet will be a bigger ask, though. Keita is a freakishly twitchy athlete, who whips strikes out so quickly I had to slow down the tape to even see what he was hitting opponents with. He's also taller, longer, and has faster footwork than Pico, so the longer this fight stays at range the better he will be. Pico is the better pure boxer, but is a somewhat limited overall striker, while Keita mixes in a diverse range of attacks.

However, we haven't seen Keita's grappling tested at the UFC level, yet. He's faced just one takedown attempt in his two fights, a half-hearted effort from Nathaniel Wood, who is nowhere near the level of wrestler as Pico. His only career loss prior to that point was a fluky foot injury, and the level of grappling in his previous promotion, Oktagon, is fairly low.

To his credit, he's worked to improve on the mat, competing in some pro grappling matches, even picking up a submission win between his two previous UFC fights. That's not enough to compete with the wrestling of Pico, but it could be enough to stay safe on the ground and/or escape back to his feet. Pico struggled to keep Murphy and Pitbull down, while not doing much damage or attempting any submissions officially in either of those fights.

Likely, what this fight boils down to is Keita attempting to do enough damage in between takedown attempts to sway rounds in his favor or put Pico out, while Pico tries to tire Keita out with repeated wrestling. Keita is coming in on somewhat short notice to replace Arnold Allen — though he accepted this fight almost immediately after his last win, so was likely still in good enough shape already.

Pico vs. Keita Pick, Prediction

I'm genuinely torn on who I think will win this fight, with both men excelling where the other is weak. Both have also fallen well short of their potential in spots, with Pico's various knockout losses and Keita's lackluster decision loss to Wood both being notable examples.

However, when hunting the prop market on FanDuel, I found a much better angle than trying to pick a winner.

Keita is +210 to land the most significant strikes in this fight. That's probably a function of the official stats, which are based on just two fights each, and Pico padded against a 38-year-old Pitbull. Keita is much tougher to hit than Pitbull, and has the length to stay outside of Pico's range unlike the 5'6" Brazilian.

It's hard to see Keita winning this fight without landing more significant strikes than Pico, as that probably means he's spent most of it on his back. Functionally, this prop should be roughly in line with his moneyline at worst. Plus, Keita could hit this prop while losing the fight if he lands flurries on the feet but spends a lot of time grounded. The biggest threat is probably Pico landing a few combinations before getting knocked out, but at this price I'm willing to take that risk.

Billy's Picks: Keita Most Significant Strikes Landed +210 (FanDuel)

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