Lone’er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 333 (Saturday, October 24)

Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov

Check out the Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov prediction for UFC 333 on Saturday, October 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

The UFC 333 main card is primarily dominated by lighter weight class fighters, with the lead-in to the title fights featuring exciting flyweights Lone'er Kavanagh and Ramazan Temirov. Kavanagh is 3-2 in the UFC, but two of those fights — and one of the wins — have been against former champions or title challengers, while Temirov is a perfect 3-0 in the promotion.

Both men are on the short list for a title fight in the near future, with champion Josh Van or presumed challenger Manel Kape holding wins over most of the contenders ranked ahead of them. First, they'll need a win this weekend, though.

Here's my Kavanagh vs. Temirov pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

I've writtenextensively about Lone'er Kavanagh throughout his run with the UFC, starting with his 2024 appearance on the Contender Series. He was my favorite prospect on the 2024 season, thanks to his unique blend of traditional martial arts (like Karate and Taekwondo) with modern striking sensibilities, as well as his underrated Judo-based grappling attack.

Even then, though, I noted his deficiencies in terms of cardio. Or, rather, his gas tank. I'm sure Kavanagh has an excellent VO2 Max and resting heart rate, but his heavily-muscled (for flyweight) frame and extreme explosive ability make maintaining his output over extended periods difficult. Think a young Conor McGregor in terms of fast-twitch ability.

On the one hand, I was encouraged by his five-round win over former champion Brandon Moreno, which came at elevation in Mexico City and on short notice. Kavanagh managed his output more judiciously, and allowed Moreno to expend energy on takedown attempts rather than grappling himself. On the other hand, Kavanagh started extremely well against Brandon Royval before fading late in the fight. Kavanagh was taken down early in the third round and controlled for essentially the whole frame, before being submitted late in the round.

What I didn't notice at the time, but jumped out on film now, is the similarities between the two men to defeat Kavanagh. Both Royval and Charles Johnson are taller/longer flyweights at 5'9, and both fight out of a switch (Johnson) or southpaw (Royval) stance.

Kavanagh is officially listed as an orthodox fighter but does plenty of stance switching himself. He also seems much more comfortable striking with orthodox fighters, which is most obvious when fighting an opponent who switches stances. Kavanagh cracked Johnson repeatedly with lead hooks and rear kicks when "Inner G" went orthodox, but struggled to get the outside foot angle when Johnson switched to southpaw. The eventual finish also came from Johnson's southpaw stance.

It was a similar story against Royval, the only opponent to outstrike Kavanagh in his UFC run. Kavanagh had a hard time getting past the extended lead hand of Royval, and had to leap into range to land. While he found some success, dropping Royval in the second, that also opened him up for the takedowns that eventually became his undoing.

Fortunately for Kavanagh, Ramazan Temirov is a 5'4" orthodox fighter. Unfortunately for Kavanagh, he hits like a middleweight, with a ton of power packed into his diminutive frame.

At his height, Temirov is obviously comfortable being the shorter man in his matchups, since he nearly always is. He overcomes this with constant forward pressure, backing his opponents up to or near the fence. Part of why that works is his massive power. Opponents have to respect it and are wary of meeting him head-on, even if it means ceding the center of the cage.

Much like Kavanagh, Temirov will also mix in big explosive spinning and leaping attacks, which cover a lot of ground at once. I suspect he'll need to land a few of those to take the ground from Kavanagh, who has excellent footwork and range management. With that said, Kavanagh is also used to fighting taller/longer opponents, so it will be interesting to see if that footwork translates when the roles are reversed.

In many ways, this is a bit of a mirror match, with both men on the shorter side for the division, extremely explosive, but potentially struggle in extended fights. Temirov dropped the third round in his only UFC decision, which also came against Johnson, after dominating the early going. That explains the virtually even moneyline odds for this one.

Kavanagh vs. Temirov Pick, Prediction

With that said, I think I trust Kavanagh's cardio more than Temirov's here. He's obviously proven it in the five-round fight in Mexico, but also seems to tire more when forced to grapple defensively, which is unlikely to be an issue against Temirov.

All three of Kavanagh's UFC wins have come via decision, while Temirov faded badly in his only fight to go the distance, so there's a clear correlation between how long this fight lasts and who wins it.

While I'd be fine with hedging this bet with the inverse, I'm taking Kavanagh and the fight to start Round 2 in an SGP at +126 odds. FanDuel's "Round 3 or Decision" prop is +190, but I'd rather leave myself an extra round of wiggle room.

If you want to hedge either of those, Temirov in Rounds 1 or 2 is +230 at FanDuel and represents most of his likely win condition.

Billy's Picks: Kavanagh & Fight Starts Round 2 SGP +126 (FanDuel)

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