Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan Odds
| Moicano Odds | +154 |
| Duncan Odds | -185 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+110/-140) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 11:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 115 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 115 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan prediction for UFC Vegas 115 on Saturday, April 4, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 13-fight card, featuring a showdown in the lightweight division between No. 10 contender Renato "Money" Moicano and Scottish prospect Chris Duncan.
Duncan enters on a four-fight winning streak, with a 7-2 promotional record, including his contract-earning performance on Contender Series in 2022 over Charlie Campbell, following a 2021 knockout loss on the show against Viacheslav Borshchev. Saturday's bout will mark his first career main event or five-round fight.
Moicano, who is 12-7 since joining the UFC in 2014, enters his fourth career main event or five-round fight. He lost to Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 272, but survived all 25 minutes on four days' notice, defeated Benoit Saint Denis within 10 minutes in Paris, and subsequently lost a short-notice title bout — in place of Arman Tsarukyan — against Islam Makhachev at UFC 311.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 115 Main Event on Saturday and use those factors to bet on these lightweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 11:15 p.m. ET (8:15 p.m. PT) on Saturday evening.
Here's my Moicano vs. Duncan pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Moicano | Duncan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-7-1 | 15-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:28 | 7:38 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/21/1989 | 5/10/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.17 | 5.02 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.57 | 4.82 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.67 | 3.27 |
| TD Acc | 41% | 42% |
| TD Def | 62% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.7 |
Moicano is both the taller and longer fighter (1" taller, 1" reach advantage), and the better athlete than Duncan. Since he used to compete at Featherweight, Moicano is almost certainly the quicker man, too, and by the numbers, he's been the more efficient striker (+0.7 to +0.1 differential per minute at distance) against superior competition.
Moicano throws a lot of straight punches, whereas Duncan is hook-heavy, which should allow Moicano to get to the target more consistently in boxing exchanges.
Duncan is the younger (by 4 years) and more powerful athlete, but he's not the most durable. We've seen him hurt and knocked down multiple times in the UFC, but he has shown excellent recoverability to work his way back into fights after getting clipped.
Moreover, he doesn't have to worry about significant power coming from Moicano, either; the Brazilian has only recorded two knockdowns (against Cub Swanson and Benenil Dariush) across 19 UFC fights, and both of his TKO wins came via ground and pound.
Duncan has the better grappling stats of the pair, controlling opponents in 81% of positions, compared to 61% for Moicano. Still, Moicano has faced a far better schedule of wrestlers; dos Anjos (13:122 control in a 25-minute fight), Makhachev (1:27 control in a four-minute fight), and Dariush (5:53 control in a 15-minute fight) all outwrestled Moicano, but would have done the very same thing to Duncan, too.
While Duncan is well-rounded, with a good gas tank and relatively reliable at mixing in takedowns (3.5 attempts per five minutes), Moicano is the better one both on the mat and in scrambles.
He may get outmuscled and pushed up against the fence, or get overpowered and taken down by the Scotsman. Still, I'd expect Moicano to win the positional battles on the ground, and to either keep the fight standing or find a way to take Duncan's back, where he prefers to operate.
Duncan's submission wins, and techniques (guillotine, anaconda) are a byproduct of opponents choosing to grapple him; Moicano's preferred method (rear-naked choke) requires him to pass and progress positionally, and we've seen Duncan finish in that fashion by Manuel Torres.
I'm not confident Duncan will take Moicano down. Still, if he does, I'd expect the Brazilian to get the better of those exchanges eventually and either escape from the bottom or transition into a controlling position.
These two are former training partners at American Top Team, so they know who generally gets the best of the rounds between the two of them. Still, unless Duncan can out-physical and knock Moicano out early, I think he's in for an extremely competitive fight, where he may have more heart and better physicality, but could be at an MMA skill disadvantage both in the striking and grappling.
Betting Insight
I projected Chris Duncan as a -116 favorite (53.8% implied) in this matchup. As a result, I would bet the underdog, Renato Moicano, down to around +125 pre-fight, at just under a two percent edge compared to my projected line.
However, I mostly align with the market on the total, setting the fight to end inside the distance nearly 75% of the time (-281 implied odds), compared to -450 on YES and +300 on NO.
Since I would lean toward the Over, or the goes to decision prop if forced to choose, I also show a correlated edge on Moicano to win by decision (projected +655, listed +900).
There's an assumption that Duncan has a better gas tank because he is the younger man, and has shown an ability to persist even after getting hurt; still, Moicano is the one who has proven his 25-minute cardio (and on short notice to boot); there's no reason to suspect that he's any likelier to slow down that Duncan across five rounds.
As a result, take +125 or better on Moicano pre-fight, consider poking his decision prop down to +800, and monitor both fighters for a potential entry during the fight.
For example, if one of the combatants is unsuccessfully initiating takedowns or maintaining position after, I would consider live betting the other side; failed takedowns use up a lot of energy for the aggressor.
Sean's Pick: Renato Moicano +146 (FanDuel)
