Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Vegas 109 (Saturday, August 9)

Check out the Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez prediction for UFC Vegas 109 on Saturday, August 9, with my betting preview and breakdown.

Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez Odds

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 12-fight card, featuring a middleweight main event between No. 10 contender Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez and No. 9-ranked Roman Dolidze.

Hernandez, a California native, enters on a seven-fight winning streak following a 1-2 start in the promotion. Saturday's bout will mark his third career main event or five-round fight, including his win over Michel Pereira in the APEX last October, and a 2018 LFA title bout win over Brendan Allen.

Dolidze, one of the few Georgian UFC combatants alongside bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili and Lightweight champion Ilia Topuria, enters on a three-fight winning streak, including a recent five-round decision over Marvin Vettori.

Saturday's matchup with Hernandez will also mark his third career main event or five-round fight; Dolidze lost a five-round decision in February 2024 against Nassourdine Imavov.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 109 main event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on these middleweights. They should make their cage walks at approximately 9:45 p.m. ET (6:45 p.m. PT) on ESPN on Saturday evening.

Here's my Dolidze vs. Hernandez pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Roman Dolidze, who competed at both Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight regionally, is the bigger man (2" taller, 1" reach advantage). He has a clear power advantage, but should also possess a key physicality edge in the early stages of this fight against a relentless wrestler who typically weaponizes his superior cardio against opponents.

Dolidze is a decorated grappler —he won the ADCC Asian trials at 99 kg in 2016— and even if he doesn't deny takedowns from Hernandez from the outset (career 33% takedown defense; denied 4 of 12 attempts), I do expect his strength and explosiveness to win out in the early scrambles.

Dolidze is the more dangerous striker and showed career-best output in his win over Vettori, landing 137 of 332 significant strike attempts at distance. Moreover, Hernandez is hittable (46% striking defense) because he's often trying to recklessly close the distance to get his hands on his opponents and initiate grappling exchanges.

However, once Hernandez can initiate his chain wrestling sequences, it's often the beginning of the end for his opponents. He averages a staggering 17.3 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance (compared to 1.4 for Dolidze), completing 45% of those attempts and controlling 81% of grappling exchanges.

To his credit, Dolidze has controlled the same percentage of his grappling time (81%), but while he'll be the stronger fighter early, Hernandez should flow better and be both the faster and more relentless man in the scrambles.

Inevitably, he should have more success winning those wrestling exchanges as the fight extends, and Dolidze tires out.

Even when Hernandez makes mistakes in the grappling and permits his opponent to regain position or scramble back to their feet, he immediately re-wrestles or completes a mat return to put them back in the same position they just escaped from, which seems to take a toll on his opponents both mentally and physically.

As a result, Hernandez should excel more in five-round fights as opposed to three; similar to Merab, few fighters can keep up with that pace or pressure, while maintaining that level of stamina.

Additionally, Hernandez is likely a better fighter to bet live in most fights, as opposed to taking on the pre-fight moneyline.

Dolidze's best path is to hurt Hernandez to the body early and often, and dissuade him from closing the distance and attempting to grapple.

Kevin Holland was able to finish Fluffy with an early knee, and both Markus Perez and Roman Kopylov hurt him with body strikes.

Dolidze has both powerful knees and body kicks in his striking skillset. I'd expect him to win the majority of early exchanges and to land the more noticeably damaging strikes.

Still, as Dolidze slows, Hernandez's jab should become more effective. He uses it to create entries for takedown, and those faster straight punches could prove the difference down the stretch of a close fight, particularly if Dolidze can win early minutes and survive to the final bell.

Dolidze vs. Hernandez Pick, Prediction

I projected Roman Dolidze as a +240 underdog (29.4% implied) in this fight, and would either bet the underdog side of this matchup (to +265) or pass pre-fight.

Either way, however, I would look to live bet Anthony Hernandez anytime after Round 1, with the best price point on the favorite potentially coming after the five or ten minute mark, as a fresh Dolidze could deny takedowns and land the more impactful strikes over the first two rounds.

Still, the longer this fight extends, the more grappling success I would expect Hernandez to have. And given the potential cardio dynamic of this matchup (and in nearly all of Hernandez's fights), I like Fluffy to win in Round 3 (+1000), Round 4 (+1200), or Round 5 (+1400) in a structured wager (roughly 0.15u, 0.11u, and 0.7u, proportionately).

Alternatively, or in addition to the late Hernandez props, you can play the Under 1.5 Rounds (+380) and/or Under 2.5 Rounds (+188) to cover some early finish equity on either side of the fight, while partially hedging against a quick Dolidze finish.

Sean's Pick: Anthony Hernandez wins in Round 3 (+850 at Fanatics) | Hernandez wins in Round 4 (+1200 at Fanatics) | Hernandez wins in Round 5 (+1900 at Fanatics) | Anthony Hernandez Live after Round 1