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UFC 262 Undercard Odds, Pick & Prediction for Lando Vannata vs. Mike Grundy (Saturday, May 15)

UFC 262 Undercard Odds, Pick & Prediction for Lando Vannata vs. Mike Grundy (Saturday, May 15) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC fighter Mike Grundy.

  • Lando Vannata will face Mike Grundy on the prelim card at UFC 262 in Houston.
  • Despite Vannata's struggles in his UFC career and Grundy's exceptional grappling skills, the Brit is just a -125 favorite.
  • Erich Richter explains why this fight has the best value on the undercard below.

Lando Vannata vs. Mike Grundy Odds

Vannata odds+100
Grundy odds-125
Over/Under2.5 (-200 / +155)
VenueToyota Center
TimeApprox. 9 p.m. ET
Odds as of Saturday and via PointsBet.

Mike Grundy and Lando Vannata meet at UFC 262 in a grappler vs. striker battle on the prelim portion of Saturday's card. Grundy, the grappler, will showcase his excellent takedown ability and pace. Lando has been a solid striker in his 10 UFC fights, but has consistently struggled against grapplers.

Lando has had a tough go in the UFC, but his level of competition hasn't been easy either — his UFC debut was against former interim champion Tony Ferguson — putting his UFC record at 3-5-2 entering this fight. His last three fights have shown clear signs that the UFC is catching up to his lack of takedown defense.

Has Lando made the necessary improvements to compete with elite UFC talent? Let's take a look at both fighters and see if there is value on either side of this matchup.

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Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time11:5412:21
Weight (pounds)146 lbs.146 lbs.
Reach (inches)71"72"
Date of birth3/14/921/3/87
Sig Strikes Per Min4.582.15
SS Accuracy44%43%
SS Absorbed Per Min5.104.09
SS Defense54%58%
Take Down Avg.1.134.25
TD Acc37%38%
TD Def58%100%
Submission Avg0.40.6

Vannata's main goal against every opponent should be to keep the fight standing. This will be easier said than done against Grundy who averages 4.25 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon per UFC Stats. Grundy is also equipped with attacking ability on the ground resulting in eight submissions over his twelve victories.

Vannata is not known for his punching power or submissions, he is mostly a decision fighter. He also absorbs more strikes than he lands — absorbing 5.1 significant strikes per minute and landing 4.58 per minute — not exactly the best formula to win a decision.

If Vannata is going to win a decision, he must increase his output and improve his head movement (again, easier said than done). If he consistently gets out-struck and taken down, he'll be in for a tough night at the office.

Vannata vs. Grundy Pick

Vannata has not won a fight in the octagon when his opponent has scored a takedown. He will almost certainly be taken down on Saturday, the only question is how many times.

I am not confident in Lando's ability to get a finish either considering he hasn't knocked out an opponent since 2016. I would project Grundy to have a significant advantage on the ground as well. Typically, Lando prioritizes striking from the ground — which judges rarely give credit for — rather than using technique to get up using the fence.

Oddsmakers are expecting this fight to go to a decision at -167 (62.55% implied). I think that's too high when you take into account Grundy has only gone the distance four times in his fourteen career fights.

I think submission is on the table here and sportsbooks are not giving Grundy much credit for his submission skills on the ground. PointsBet has Grundy via submission at +750 (11.76% implied), which is very tasty when you compare it to the rest of the market.

I think Grundy will land multiple takedowns on Lando and could finish him with a head and arm choke. Admittedly this is not the most likely outcome, so I will only be wagering a half unit on this spot.

Lando is as tough as they come so the most likely outcome is still a decision, but not where the odds are currently. I would play the value of submission down to +625 on Saturday.

The Pick: Mike Grundy ML -130 (1u) | Grundy via submission +750 (.5u)

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