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UFC 281 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Dominick Reyes vs. Ryan Spann: Leans for Each Fighter (Saturday, November 12)

UFC 281 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Dominick Reyes vs. Ryan Spann: Leans for Each Fighter (Saturday, November 12) article feature image
Credit:

Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight Dominick Reyes

  • Former title challenger Dominick Reyes clashes with Ryan Spann on Saturday's UFC 281 preliminary card.
  • The light heavyweight matchup has the shortest odds to inside the distance.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo breaks down the matchup and offers a few betting leans for it.

Dominick Reyes vs. Ryan Spann Odds

Reyes Odds
-205
Spann Odds
+175
Over/Under
1.5 (-105 / -125)
Venue
Madison Square Garden in New York City
Time
9 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPNews
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

Fireworks could quickly commence when Dominick Reyes clashes with Ryan Spann in a UFC 281 preliminary-card bout on Saturday.

Reyes, a former title challenger, is in need of a big win, but notorious finisher Spann provides a dangerous test in this light-heavyweight bout.

Let’s take a look at how they match up.

Tale of the Tape

Reyes Spann
Record 12-3 20-7
Avg. Fight Time 9:12 4:59
Height 6’4″ 6’5″
Weight (pounds) 205 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach (inches) 77″ 79″
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Date of birth 12/26/1989 8/24/1991
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.77 3.35
SS Accuracy 50% 44%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.73 3.41
SS Defense 48% 47%
Take Down Avg 0.36 1.50
TD Acc 28% 38%
TD Def 80% 50%
Submission Avg 0.4 1.8

Reyes, who nearly won the light heavyweight strap against Jon Jones at UFC 247, enters Saturday after an extended 18-month layoff riding a three-fight losing skid.

After losing via finish to Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka in consecutive fights, perhaps we see a more tentative approach from “The Devastator.”

It’s difficult to envision any fight involving Ryan Spann starting slowly. “Superman” Spann has seen 19 of his 27 career fights end in Round 1, including a trio of finish losses under the UFC banner.

Spann should be the larger man in the cage (1 inch taller, two inches of reach), and perhaps he can catch Reyes early after that lengthy layoff.

Still, Spann’s cardio is subpar, and his effectiveness tends to wane substantially after the opening frame. If Reyes can weather the early storm and get Spann to that second round, I expect him to take over the fight. And you can target a live bet on Reyes after Round 1 – hopefully, at plus money.

I considered betting the Under 1.5 rounds here blind. That bet would have cashed in 20 of Spann’s 27 career fights (74%). Still, Reyes is more of a point-fighter at light heavyweight; his record would look far less impressive without a pair of knockout wins against middleweights in Chris Weidman and Jared Cannonier.

Reyes vs. Spann Pick

Reyes has the physical attributes to take over this fight late, but I don’t project pre-flop betting value on this fight from any perspective.

However, an SGP (+195) at DraftKings with Reyes and the Over 1.5 Rounds, or props for Reyes in Round 2 (+550) and Round 3 (+1300), caught my attention.

Those bets encompass the majority of his win condition, but I wouldn’t put it past Spann to fold on the first exchange, particularly after missing weight on Friday.

Spann wins in Round 1 (+600 at FanDuel) is intriguing too.

The Pick: Pass (see leans above)

 

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