UFC 282 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Jay Perrin: Fade the Hyped Prospect? (Saturday, December 10)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC middleweight Paul Rosas Jr.
- The youngest fighter in UFC history makes his promotional debut tonight in UFC 282's featured prelim.
- 18-year-old Raul Rosas Jr. is the favorite over Jay Perrin, who's 0-2 in the UFC.
- Below, Sean Zerillo shares his favorite bets for the fight, including one with +420 odds.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Jay Perrin Odds
Raul Rosas Jr. will officially become the youngest fighter to compete in the UFC when the 18-year-old meets Jay Perrin in Saturday's featured UFC 282 prelim.
Rosas Jr. punches his ticket to the UFC as a 17-year-old during a summer Contender Series event, and after turning 18 in October, he now meets Perrin, who's 0-2 in his pair of UFC appearances.
We dig into the matchup below.
Tale of the Tape
| Rosas Jr. | Perrin | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-0 | 10-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 67" |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Date of birth | 10/8/2004 | 6/15/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.33 | 3.84 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 0.80 | 4.07 |
| SS Defense | 25% | 44% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| TD Acc | 60% | 52% |
| TD Def | 0% | 64% |
| Submission Avg | 1.0 | 0.0 |
Young 18-year-old Rosas Jr. will make his official UFC debut on Saturday after earning a contract with a dominant effort on the Contender Series in September.
Rosas has shown excellent grappling and pressure, especially for a prospect his age. Still, he is a long way away from either his physical or technical prime, and Perrin is far from a pushover.
Despite an 0-2 record in the UFC (and a loss on Contender Series), Perrin was competitive in each bout and had an argument for winning two of those fights. Perrin is willing to wrestle (more than two takedown attempts per round) and has fun scrambling ability.
Moreover, I view him as a better striker than Rosas and expect him to win extended striking exchanges.
Ironically, I bet Perrin in his last fight due to an anticipated grappling advantage; he didn't wrestle until late in the second round.
For the Rosas fight, I'd prefer Perrin try to deny takedowns or use scrambles to return to his feet, where he can win the striking. Yet I'm expecting him to play into Rosas' hands and grapple as often as possible.
Rosas Jr. vs. Perrin Pick
Perrin is a more significant underdog than Rosas' Contender Series opponent, yet he's a far stiffer test for this debutant teenager.
I projected Perrin's moneyline at +176 (36.2% implied) and would bet him down to around +192 (34.2% implied) at a 2% edge.
Moreover, you can poke his decision prop (projected +360, listed +420 at FanDuel).
The Picks: Jay Perrin (+200, 0.5u at DraftKings) | Perrin wins by Decision (+420, 0.1u at FanDuel)
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