Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas Odds
| Krylov Odds | +124 |
| Bukauskas Odds | -148 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+110/-140) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 324 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 324 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas prediction for UFC 324 on Saturday, January 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
In a battle of career trajectories heading in opposing directions, Modestas Bukauskas takes on Nikita Krylov in a light-heavyweight tilt. Oddsmakers are seeing the matchup as one expected to be closely contested, but it is difficult for me to envision a path to victory for the underdog Krylov that warrants implied odds of 44% given his recent performance.
Here's my Krylov vs. Bukauskas pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Krylov | Bukauskas | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 30-11 | 19-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:34 | 9:11 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 3/7/1992 | 2/10/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.31 | 3.32 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.58 | 3.93 |
| SS Defense | 44% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.17 | 0.3 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 66% |
| TD Def | 53% | 80% |
| Submission Avg | 1.4 | 0.1 |
Nikita Krlyov is a true veteran of the sport, competing in the UFC since 2013. His chaotic style and trademark durability allowed him to go toe-to-toe with some of the biggest names in the division. Krylov’s blend of submission grappling and striking power led to 28 career finish victories of his 30 total wins. He clearly was one of the more dangerous opponents for any potential contender, but it is completely fair to have skepticism if he will ever return to that level at age 33.
Krylov was out of action for more than two years following significant injury, and since his return in April of 2025, he has not lasted more than one round. He suffered knockout losses in both octagon appearances since, as it is evident the accumulation of damage he has sustained throughout his career has begun to catch up with him.
Modestas Bukauskas is fighting with a level of confidence unforeseen in his career up to this point. He is still just 31 years of age and he just now may be entering his prime fighting years. His defensive grappling has improved, which will pay major dividends in this bout against a fighter who desperately needs to test him on the mat.
Krylov has a 38% takedown accuracy rate over his UFC tenure, while Bukauskas defends takedowns successfully at a 80% clip.
Admittedly, it was surprising to see that Krylov will actually enjoy a one-inch reach advantage in this fight, but the reason for my shock has everything to do with how each man uses his length. Bukauskas is much more comfortable fighting at distance and is much more skilled at managing that distance.
Bukauskas’s strength of schedule is not an impressive one, but his win over Ion Cutelaba does boost conviction he is the right side here. Cutelaba came into their matchup winning three of his last four and boasting a 49% takedown success rate, yet could not wrestle Bukauskas down the mat even once, going 0 for 4 on takedown attempts.
The decision may have been somewhat controversial, but Bukauskas having his best round in the third frame projects well for him moving forward if he is not able to land the fight-ending strike on the veteran Krylov.
Krylov vs. Bukauskas Pick, Prediction
However, I am predicting Bukauskas to get the job done on Saturday night inside the distance. The manner in which Krylov was knocked out is indicative of a fighter who can be put out by any clean shot.
As mentioned, Krylov is a skilled kickboxer, but his chaotic style is simply not as effective when he is unable to walk through damage when pressuring forward. Lay the chalk with Bukauskas up to -145.
John's Picks: Bukauskas -135 (Caesars)
